Talk about splitting the difference. The vort right through the Mona passage, and then skirts the north coast of the DR on that run. It is going to be a close call during the day tomorrowATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models
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northjaxpro
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Talk about splitting the difference. The vort right through the Mona passage, and then skirts the north coast of the DR on that run. It is going to be a close call during the day tomorrow
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SeminoleWind
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Re: Re:
ninel conde wrote:Hammy wrote:I'm going to guess low-end TS or TD into S Florida and then Gulf with this run.
Might be too strong. Think its a wave now and will move west and dissipate.
Kind of a bold statement given the pros don't see it that way
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Re:
northjaxpro wrote:Talk about splitting the difference. The vort right through the Mona passage. It is going to be a close call during the day tomorrow.
I wonder how many TS have actually made it thru the mona passage...I mean the odds seem astronomical...
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WPBWeather
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Re: Re:
ninel conde wrote:Hammy wrote:I'm going to guess low-end TS or TD into S Florida and then Gulf with this run.
Might be too strong. Think its a wave now and will move west and dissipate.
Nope. I think you both are wrong.
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SouthFLTropics
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The 0Z GFS is quite a bit further west than the 18Z GFS. This looks like it is heading for the FL pen or maybe even the eastern GOM. Weaker for sure at this point.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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northjaxpro
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Looks as if Erika will survive according to this run. Also, look at the ridge expanding, with the western edge of the ridge extending out into the Eastern GOM 0Z GFS @ 30 hr.
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The 0Z GFS is about 150 miles west of the 18Z GFS.
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SeminoleWind
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when (what area) is Erika supposed to reach less shear?
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gatorcane
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Re:
LarryWx wrote:The 0Z GFS is quite a bit further west than the 18Z GFS. This looks like it is heading for the FL pen or maybe even the eastern GOM. Weaker for sure at this point.
Out through 60 hours and is nothing but a wave and further west.
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Re: Re:
ninel conde wrote:Hammy wrote:I'm going to guess low-end TS or TD into S Florida and then Gulf with this run.
Might be too strong. Think its a wave now and will move west and dissipate.
This is not a wave considering they found west winds. (And I can't help but notice you didn't show up at all when it looked like might be organizing
)
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northjaxpro
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Re:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Evening northJaxrpo,
I think we are just about to that point we were talking about the other night. Does it find better conditions and start getting stronger as it heads towards S. FLA, or keep struggling.
Well, we will get our answer during the next 24 hours Miami. If Erika survives through this time and makes it past 70 degrees Longitude and emerge away from Hispaniola, all bets are off with the potential she has to intensity after 48 hours from now. Conditions look very good for development, especially in the Bahamas and the Florida Straits region where shear looks very light. Worried that Erika could ramp up provided she stays intact after these next 24 hours.
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ninel conde
Re: Re:
Hammy wrote:ninel conde wrote:Hammy wrote:I'm going to guess low-end TS or TD into S Florida and then Gulf with this run.
Might be too strong. Think its a wave now and will move west and dissipate.
This is not a wave considering they found west winds. (And I can't help but notice you didn't show up at all when it looked like might be organizing
I never show up until something can make it intact past 60 west. This one never did. GFS this run isnt showing anything more than rain from a wave.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:any chance this misses us to the west?
On this 0Z run, that is happening. Hitting S FL west of Miami. Very weak as modeled. About two degrees longitude further west than 18Z.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
agree with you as I always have, but must admit I never really felt the models would keep moving it west. It seemed last night and earlier runs today for the most part have it near Miami to Palm Beach.
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