ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Just got through watching WJXT TV-4 here in Jax chief met John Gaughan, who I hold in high regard, is of the opinion that the vort we tracked through Saint Croix and now just south of Puerto Rico is the true center of circulation of Erika.

[Hammy]

Honestly I thought that either the San Juan radar or RECON would clarify where the center is but I'm just seeing a mess. Although I still feel this will get its act together within the next 24 hours, right now I see a mess.

Seems like there is no "center" but rather multiple vortices rotating around a common point. It would explain the odd wind shifts and is part of the reason why I don't think it will organize in time to turn and miss DR. It's just too much of a mess right now.

[Hammy]

Honestly I thought that either the San Juan radar or RECON would clarify where the center is but I'm just seeing a mess. Although I still feel this will get its act together within the next 24 hours, right now I see a mess.

Seems like there is no "center" but rather multiple vortices rotating around a common point. It would explain the odd wind shifts and is part of the reason why I don't think it will organize in time to turn and miss DR. It's just too much of a mess right now.

One alternative if it does run aground so to speak, is that one of these makes it through the Mona Passage and becomes the dominant center.

[northjaxpro]

NHC has yet to release the 11:00 advisory. Tough forecast challenges ahead for them with this storm for sure.

[SouthFloridawx]

It's definitely going to be late.

[CrazyC83]

Santa Cruz station now 59 mph with 72 mph gust report by Retweeted Ada Monzón (@adamonzon):

Elevated station? Or legit low level observation?

[abajan]

NHC has yet to release the 11:00 advisory. Tough forecast challenges ahead for them with this storm for sure.

It's coming soon:

000
WTNT25 KNHC 280253
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN HAITI SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 64.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Hurricaneman]

Santa Cruz station now 59 mph with 72 mph gust report by Retweeted Ada Monzón (@adamonzon):

Elevated station? Or legit low level observation?

if legit they have to raise the winds to 60mph

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Aric Dunn]

Quite clear we have multiple vorts.

[northjaxpro]

Well, NHC did a very slight nudge to the left(west) with the track out 120 hours, with Erika being just southeast of Saint Augustine about or less tahn 50 miles off the coast as a 75 kt hurricane. Very close to the coast in Northeast Florida on Tuesday.

[wxsouth]

Swirl near Puerto Rico now moving south of west as it rotates around overall circulation center to the south.

[Steve H.]

Yikes! That's over my house!

[gatorcane]

Latest track 11PM EST:

[AutoPenalti]

[ozonepete]

Quite clear we have multiple vorts.

Yup. Radar, satellite and RECON all point to it...

[AutoPenalti]

Picked up pace once again.

[DESTRUCTION5]

[northjaxpro]

Yikes! That's over my house!

Yeah, that track would really impact our area rather significantly Steve!

[northjaxpro]

Also, NHC has pushed back the timeframe for impacts here in Jax and the Northeast Florida coast now approaching our region Tuesday evening.

[Steve H.]

Damn. And I just put up a new fence this year, Die Erika, Die!