ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[gatorcane]

From a modeling point of view, the ECMWF has been the most consistent the past 4 model run cycles with mean consensus track just north of Hispaniola or clipping it, through the SE Bahamas and into SE Florida. Once this model starts getting this kind of consistency especially in this timeframe, I wouldn't expect huge deviations from here on out. Fortunately it is only going to TS status into SE Florida right now. Of course Hispaniola is the big X factor here.

[LSU2001]

Katrina taught me to wait, watch, and prepare as necessary. I will never again get excited about a storm coming my way. I lived through a bunch of storms prior to Katrina but I lost all joy of tracking after that witch.
tim

[Weatherboy1]

From a modeling point of view, the ECMWF has been the most consistent the past 4 model run cycles with mean consensus track into SE Florida. Once this model starts getting this kind of consistency in this timeframe it is arguably the best model in the world. Fortunately it is only going to TS status into SE Florida right now.

Though I do notice in the very short-range the ECMWF has been shifting more west each run.

True on track. But I still think the models are underestimating the potential for Erika to strengthen once she gets into the SE Bahamas. I am personally worried she will intensify more than currently forecast starting this time tomorrow.

Just my opinion as a semi-educated amateur; listen to the experts as always

[SFLcane]

00z models shift westward again...

[northjaxpro]

From a modeling point of view, the ECMWF has been the most consistent the past 4 model run cycles with mean consensus track into SE Florida. Once this model starts getting this kind of consistency in this timeframe it is arguably the best model in the world. Fortunately it is only going to TS status into SE Florida right now.

Though I do notice in the very short-range the ECMWF has been shifting more west each run.

True on track. But I still think the models are underestimating the potential for Erika to strengthen once she gets into the SE Bahamas. I am personally worried she will intensify more than currently forecast starting this time tomorrow.

Just my opinion as a semi-educated amateur; listen to the experts as always

So I am. I am equally concerned with the potential of Erika really getting going once she passes 70 Longitude.

[gatorcane]

00Z Intensity guidance:

[SouthFLTropics]

00z models shift westward again...

Is GFDL the new "crazy uncle"

[stormlover2013]

Models having trouble on how strong that trough is and how far it digs!!

[Bocadude85]

00z models shift westward again...

The part of Hispaniola the models are taking Erika over is north of the highest mountains.

[johngaltfla]

The part of Hispaniola the models are taking Erika over is north of the highest mountains.

Yes but the models can not take into account the favorable conditions over the Florida Straits if the LLC remains intact or only briefly over those mountains.

[ronjon]

00z models shift westward again...

The part of Hispaniola the models are taking Erika over is north of the highest mountains.

Hahaha..GFDL quite the lonely boy on that map!

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS 200MB shear and upper-level wind chart below. That is a very conducive upper-level environment for a developing TC. Look at the upper anticyclone there right over top of Erika (look at the clockwise flow in the wind pattern that is what we mean by "anticyclone"). Plus the trough off to the NW could be used as an outflow channel and also the upper-level low to the SE could as well allow dual outflow channels. Why is the GFS not blowing this up even more quickly while traversing SSTs nearing 90F in some places? You have to wonder

[ronjon]

NHC track now on the east side of model guidance (except for outlier GFDL of course).

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFS 200MB shear and upper-level wind chart below. That is a very conducive upper-level environment for a developing TC. Look at the upper anticyclone there right over top of Erika (look at the clockwise flow in the wind pattern that is what we mean by "anticyclone"). Plus the trough off to the NW could be used as an outflow channel and also the upper-level low to the SE could as well allow dual outflow channels. Why is the GFS not blowing this up even more quickly while traversing SSTs nearing 90F in some places? You have to wonder

GFS looked stronger on 18z than 12z while just off coast of FL from Miami to Jax. I didn't look in detail though.

[sponger]

From a modeling point of view, the ECMWF has been the most consistent the past 4 model run cycles with mean consensus track into SE Florida. Once this model starts getting this kind of consistency in this timeframe it is arguably the best model in the world. Fortunately it is only going to TS status into SE Florida right now.

Though I do notice in the very short-range the ECMWF has been shifting more west each run.

True on track. But I still think the models are underestimating the potential for Erika to strengthen once she gets into the SE Bahamas. I am personally worried she will intensify more than currently forecast starting this time tomorrow.

Just my opinion as a semi-educated amateur; listen to the experts as always

Agreed. it will depend on shear and structure but that is a wild card we will not know until it approaches SFL.

[toad strangler]

Some MAJOR ACROSS THE BOARD modeling failure if this system does not start at least a true WNW heading and SOON. Perhaps this NOAA graphic hints at this happening right now ...



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ANY AND ALL POSTS I MAKE ARE MY OWN PERSONAL OPINION AND NOTHING MORE

[Recurve]

Finally caught up, tried to read the last 50 pages to see really what the trends are.

Seems the models are converging, consistently trending west if anything. Could drift back the same amount east and miss the coast, or is that window closing -- how many more runs before a big change is really unlikely?

If the track as now starts to look certain, watch out. Intensity is so much harder to peg. Preparing for a major is not dumb when a tropical storm is going through the Bahamas toward Florida.

Sept. 2, 1935. Just mentioning it.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

Remember that the 00Z suite of models, particularly the GFS, should have the G-IV drops in the runs.

[Weatherlover12]

Remember that the 00Z suite of models, particularly the GFS, should have the G-IV drops in the runs.

When does the 00z models come out?

[gatorcane]

Remember that the 00Z suite of models, particularly the GFS, should have the G-IV drops in the runs.

So that means the 00Z NAM running now should right?