ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

If you look at the last couple of frames here on WV the trough over US is starting to move west and the High over top is starting to tilt more wnw

[wjs3]

Radar plus squirrely looking data from recon suggest a broad sfc center near (or just west) of the aircraft fix. However, there are multiple vort maxes rotating around the broad center (i.e. the feature near St. Croix and the odd wind feature on the northbound leg of the recon. Messy disorganized system. Key to the whole forecast is the interaction with Hispaniola.

I think that's a great analysis that explains both recon and radar well.

[Bocadude85]

Winds gusting to 62mph at St.Croix


Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy
78°F
26°C
Humidity 93%
Wind Speed E 38 G 62 mph
Barometer 29.85 in
Dewpoint 76°F (24°C)
Visibility 1.75 mi
Heat Index 81°F (27°C)
Last update 27 Aug 8:44 pm AST
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Forecast Office
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[Hammy]

We'll have a plane out there most of the overnight hours correct? Those are the strongest flight winds I've seen so far (and over a fairly large area) so it will be interesting to see if Erika can manage to take what may be it's last chance to consolidate in time to exit the Caribbean.

[northjaxpro]

Winds gusting to 62mph at St.Croix


Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy
78°F
26°C
Humidity 93%
Wind Speed E 38 G 62 mph
Barometer 29.85 in
Dewpoint 76°F (24°C)
Visibility 1.75 mi
Heat Index 81°F (27°C)
Last update 27 Aug 8:44 pm AST
More Information:
Forecast Office
More Local Wx

That is the heavy rain band on radar moving through them currently with this ob.

[sponger]

I can't believe it is still south of PR! I always like to be down the middle of the cone five days out as it can only change. Four days and still drawing a bead on FL. I hear South Florida is parched but we are soaked in North Florida. Could be ugly for flooding if the current forecast track pans out. It is all a guess until this thing clears Hispaniola, so we will see what tomorrow evening brings.

[northjaxpro]

I can't believe it is still south of PR! I always like to be down the middle of the cone five days out as it can only change. Four days and still drawing a bead on FL. I hear South Florida is parched but we are soaked in North Florida. Could be ugly for flooding if the current forecast track pans out. It is all a guess until this thing clears Hispaniola, so we will see what tomorrow evening brings.

Hello sponger. Great to see my Northeast Florida neighbors on the forum this evening. Looks like we may have to start doing some prep this weekend sponger. We will definitely know more this time tomorrow if Erika can stay intact next 24 hours!

[bahamaswx]

Refiring over the "LLC". Here we go.

[gatorcane]

Vis loop showing it now on a solid WNW heading, looking at the low-level clouds around the LLC, it is starting to gain latitude like the models have predicted:

[deltadog03]

Going to be doing a weather LIVE update on my Facebook page in about 5 mins if yall want to join.

[ocala]

I can't believe it is still south of PR! I always like to be down the middle of the cone five days out as it can only change. Four days and still drawing a bead on FL. I hear South Florida is parched but we are soaked in North Florida. Could be ugly for flooding if the current forecast track pans out. It is all a guess until this thing clears Hispaniola, so we will see what tomorrow evening brings.

Hello sponger. Great to see my Northeast Florida neighbors on the forum this evening. Looks like we may have to start doing some prep this weekend sponger. We will definitely know more this time tomorrow if Erika can stay intact next 24 hours!

Another neighbor to the south here.
Not as wet as yall up there but wet enough around here.
As is the consensus, we'll see what happens when it pass's over the islands.

[ronjon]

Is that the broad center on San Juan radar just SE of PR?

[Hurricane Andrew]

About to pulse north of the center now. This is getting better organized, may begin to intensify later tonight and tomorrow before a temporary slowdown due to the islands.

My opinions are not those of a professional, please refer to the NHC and local NWS for official information.

[northjaxpro]

That heavy feederband Saint Croix is experiencing right now gave them a wind gust up to 62 mph from the ob report there this hour. I think that indeed was the LLC depicted on radar with that feeder band over Saint Croix on the backside of the LLC. Looking at the radar loop gatorcane, I think you may be also current in that Erika may now be moving more on a 295 degree header now. If that is confirmed later, this may be a critical point at this juncture because a 295 degree header would only clip Puerto Rico and would miss Hispaniola just to its north.

[Weatherboy1]

Based on where the LLC was before visible satellite went dark for the night, I think it's right near St. Croix ... NOT further south where the worst convection is. If I'm right, she is moving WNW already and will miss Hispanola to the north. Recon and tomorrow's visible shots will be key, but I think that is the case.

Semi amateurs opinion; always listen to the experts!

[Bocadude85]

That heavy feederband Saint Croix is experiencing right now gave them a wind gust up to 62 mph from the ob report there this hour. I think that indeed was the LLC depicted on radar with that feeder band over Saint Croix on the backside of the LLC. Looking at the radar loop gatorcane, I think you may be also current in that Erika may now be moving more on a 295 degree header now. If that is confirmed later, this may be a critical point at this juncture because a 295 degree header would only clip Puerto Rico and would miss Hispaniola just to its north.

Winds gusting to 51mph currently.


Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy
79°F
26°C
Humidity 94%
Wind Speed SE 23 G 51 mph
Barometer 29.89 in
Dewpoint 77°F (25°C)
Visibility 0.75 mi
Heat Index 83°F (28°C)
Last update 27 Aug 9:10 pm AST
More Information:
Forecast Office
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[HurriGuy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-0805A-ERIKA.png

Well something is fishy with that recon pass

[SouthFloridawx]

Did this work?

[Hammy]

Based on where the LLC was before visible satellite went dark for the night, I think it's right near St. Croix ... NOT further south where the worst convection is. If I'm right, she is moving WNW already and will miss Hispanola to the north. Recon and tomorrow's visible shots will be key, but I think that is the case.

Semi amateurs opinion; always listen to the experts!

Center is further south likely between the two convective masses based on recon. The plane is making a second pass and are a bit south in latitude of the last pass, and have still not reached it yet.

[wjs3]

Aw geez...the plane just went through where the center should have been (based on the last pass) and didn't get a windshift...at least not yet! Crazy!




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.