ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
JPmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1070
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2101 Postby JPmia » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:54 pm

18z HWRF is showing a big smack to her

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=300
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#2102 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:56 pm

HWRF kills it over Hispaniola
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re:

#2103 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:58 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:HWRF kills it over Hispaniola


nope, it's there, a little north of Eastern Cuba:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: Re:

#2104 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:59 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:HWRF kills it over Hispaniola


nope, it's there, a little north of Eastern Cuba:

Image


That's a big mess...I don't see any circulation with that. Let's see what it does in the 72 hour range. I'm guessing she'll pull herself back together and ramp back up.

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
JPmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1070
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2105 Postby JPmia » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:00 pm

Quite a big change for HWRF, but no surprise since Hispainola has done this to many storms over the years.
0 likes   
Top
SeGaBob

#2106 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:03 pm

IF by some chance the 18z GFS verified would I get a good rain here? I'm about 60 miles or so inland from the GA coast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2107 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:04 pm

HWRF's got nothing...Headed towards the FL Straights as nothing more than a afternoon T-Storm.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#2108 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:05 pm

:uarrow: Yep HWRF has dropped it basically. From CAT 2/3 to nothing in one run. wow.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re:

#2109 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:05 pm

SeGaBob wrote:IF by some chance the 18z GFS verified would I get a good rain here? I'm about 60 miles or so inland from the GA coast.


You'd see some rain, but most of the heavier amounts would be right near the track and just east of it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2110 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:05 pm

Seems the 18z HWRF kills Erika over the DR. Seems like it's a possibility.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4226
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re:

#2111 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:05 pm

SeGaBob wrote:IF by some chance the 18z GFS verified would I get a good rain here? I'm about 60 miles or so inland from the GA coast.


Yeah you would likely get several inches of rain if the 18z GFS verified.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#2112 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:07 pm

NAVGEM also came in a lot weaker.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
SeGaBob

#2113 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:07 pm

Thanks for the replies Dean4Storms and South Texas Storms. :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re:

#2114 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:07 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: Yep HWRF has dropped it basically. From CAT 2/3 to nothing in one run. wow.


That's a big shift but follows suit with the Euro on the west solution. If she clears Hispaniola then it's a different ball game. If she heads west and takes it head on...It might be all over.

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
YoshiMike
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 106
Age: 29
Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:18 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, MS
Contact:
Contact YoshiMike

#2115 Postby YoshiMike » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:08 pm

Still a small chance of a gulf coast hit or is that out now?
0 likes   
Okay guys, just because I want to BE a meteorologist, want to go to school for meteorology, DOES NOT MAKE ME A METEOROLOGIST. Anything I say about tropical weather is either me learning something new, or is just an opinion and nothing more than that. I can almost guarantee you that I will be wrong about pretty much everything.
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#2116 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:08 pm

I wouldn't bank on the HWRF at this point, it has been all over the place with track and intensity. I'd pay more attention to the ECM and even the GFS Operational and Ensemble Means.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#2117 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:09 pm

18Z NAVGEM, weak into Southern Florida

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re:

#2118 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:11 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM, weak into Southern Florida

Image


goes over Hispaniola too, that seems to be coming into the equation
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2119 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:12 pm

We need to wait for the 0z models before we jump on the weak trend. If I had to guess I'd say 50-60kts at Florida landfall. Assuming she doesn't die over Hispaniola first. Just my opinion of course.
0 likes   
Top
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

#2120 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:13 pm

I would put a lot more stock into the 0z model outputs, apparently all the data gathered today from the research planes will be included into those. Of course, land interaction is going to mean EVERYTHING as to what she ultimately becomes, as well as the direction she takes afterwards according to the mets here, as well as on tv.



Not a forecast. Please stay tuned to the NHC for official forecast.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest