ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[chaser1]

[/quote]models are having a really tough time with intensity and thus track on this one...we really need a more mature system for the models to do their work[/quote]

Boy, is THAT a fact! Still very low confidence of South Florida "potentially" being struck by "anything" within 72-84 hours, yet some guidance continues to forecast the potential for a Cat. 2 hurricane (or stronger). Meanwhile, T.S. Watches will likely have to be raised by early tomm. simply due to a poorly organized T.S. which no one can confidently state will even exist in 24-48 hours. And here's the rub, there's just not enough confidence in any one model to publically state "anticipate some squally weather, but kinda be prepared for the possibily that we could could have a much stronger hurricane on our doorstep". Problem is, that is exactly what many of us are wondering...but the general public would most likely not even have reason to consider.

[Hurricaneman]

models are having a really tough time with intensity and thus track on this one...we really need a more mature system for the models to do their work[/quote]

Boy, is THAT a fact! Still very low confidence of South Florida "potentially" being struck by "anything" within 72-84 hours, yet some guidance continues to forecast the potential for a Cat. 2 hurricane (or stronger). Meanwhile, T.S. Watches will likely have to be raised by early tomm. simply due to a poorly organized T.S. which no one can confidently state will even exist in 24-48 hours. And here's the rub, there's just not enough confidence in any one model to publically state "anticipate some squally weather, but kinda be prepared for the possibily that we could could have a much stronger hurricane on our doorstep". Problem is, that is exactly what many of us are wondering...but the general public would most likely not even have reason to consider.[/quote]

Based on the NHC forecast it would probably be hurricane watches

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[Hammy]

Anybody got the latest UKMET strength when near FL?

If I'm not mistaken, those might be the Dvorak numbers next to the track, so possibly Cat 1 hurricane in the Panhandle.

[BigB0882]

Those GFS ensembles are eye opening, tons more coming to the northern Gulf coast. Not buying into it yet and if it does I imagine it would be a very weak system if those shear maps are to be believed. Maybe a flooding threat? I am still guessing this will be a Florida event but I shall continue to watch. This sure has been a fun one to follow!

[JtSmarts]

One of our local mets just did a rundown of the models and particularly praised the GFDL calling it "one of our most dependable models". My thought was maybe if this was 2005 lol.

[BigB0882]

One of our local mets just did a rundown of the models and particularly praised the GFDL calling it "one of our most dependable models". My thought was maybe if this was 2005 lol.

Well that is scary. I wouldn't trust that met anymore when it came to the tropics. lol

[chaser1]

Those GFS ensembles are eye opening, tons more coming to the northern Gulf coast. Not buying into it yet and if it does I imagine it would be a very weak system if those shear maps are to be believed. Maybe a flooding threat? I am still guessing this will be a Florida event but I shall continue to watch. This sure has been a fun one to follow!

All the data that I've seen thus far lead me to believe that there is as much of a chance of Erika continuing into the Eastern Gulf, as there is for it riding up the Fla. East coast. I also believe that the odds of Erika striking Florida as a Cat.2 hurricane or stronger, are nearly as strong that it do so as a weak tropical depression or open wave. What i do NOT anticipate, is for Erika to have been able to survive adverse conditions, and then move into a far more conducive environment.... and simply remain a tropical storm or even borderline Cat. 1 hurricane. I certainly do believe that environmental conditions will be much more conducive for strengthening then what Erika has thus far experienced.

[USTropics]

one of our most dependable models....for laughs

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF... Hour 96... 97 mph Cat 2 Hurricane... Closest Approach To SFL Moving NNW... A little E and stronger than 06z at this point...


Hour 126... Offshore From GA... Again, No Clear Exit Route...

[Steve]

Joe B commented on the 12z ECMWF run on this twitter account:

1) Trying to figure out the ECMWF. 1005 mb 36 hours before s Fla, ideal outflow, boiling sst and no deepening on approach. Seems weird.

2) Think about it. Why would this storm survive the shear zone and Hispanola on the ECMWF and then not deepen last 36-48 hrs. Makes no sense.

[Weatherboy1]

Those GFS ensembles are eye opening, tons more coming to the northern Gulf coast. Not buying into it yet and if it does I imagine it would be a very weak system if those shear maps are to be believed. Maybe a flooding threat? I am still guessing this will be a Florida event but I shall continue to watch. This sure has been a fun one to follow!

All the data that I've seen thus far lead me to believe that there is as much of a chance of Erika continuing into the Eastern Gulf, as there is for it riding up the Fla. East coast. I also believe that the odds of Erika striking Florida as a Cat.2 hurricane or stronger, are nearly as strong that it do so as a weak tropical depression or open wave. What i do NOT anticipate, is for Erika to have been able to survive adverse conditions, and then move into a far more conducive environment.... and simply remain a tropical storm or even borderline Cat. 1 hurricane. I certainly do believe that environmental conditions will be much more conducive for strengthening then what Erika has thus far experienced.

Your point about intensity is a good one. If she has been holding firm and fighting off a lousy environment for more than two days now ... and will be in a much more favorable environment in 24-36 hours, she could easily undergo significant intensification. I could see an outside chance of Cat 2 here, rather than a high-end TS/low-end Cat 1, depending on which landmasses she has to deal with.

-My opinion only as a semi-educated amateur ... listen to the experts

[Evil Jeremy]

Currently an upper air recon mission going on, more data for models. I have a feeling the flip flopping will end soon.

[TheStormExpert]

If Erika is indeed getting her act together I wonder if we'll see the model guidance shift east again?

[Evil Jeremy]

If Erika is indeed getting her act together I wonder if we'll see the model guidance shift east again?

I don't think the 12z models fully reacted to Erika's poor condition earlier.

At this point, we have seen where the models have flopped to and from. Florida splits the difference, and is a safe bet at this point for impact.

[Jevo]

Max Mayfield on WPLG in Miami just said "I tend to agree with the European model for Erika, it has been the most consistent with it's solution and seems to have a good handle on the environment"

[PTrackerLA]

I wouldn't be too concerned about the GFS ensembles with central Gulf Coast solutions. According to weatherbell none of them are sub-1000mb.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Joe B commented on the 12z ECMWF run on this twitter account:

1) Trying to figure out the ECMWF. 1005 mb 36 hours before s Fla, ideal outflow, boiling sst and no deepening on approach. Seems weird.

2) Think about it. Why would this storm survive the shear zone and Hispanola on the ECMWF and then not deepen last 36-48 hrs. Makes no sense.

I tried to post a response a bit ago regarding that, it makes no sense that Erica would not intensify at least a little as she makes her S. FLA land fall or close to the coast. With less upper level winds and warmer SST'S to work with.

[USTropics]

Per the NHC 5PM Discussion, the 00z GFS model run is going to have the new Gulfstream-IV data that is currently sampling the atmosphere around Erika (as Evil Jeremy alluded to earlier):

The NOAA Gulfstream-IV is currently conducting a
synoptic surveillance mission around Erika to provide the numerical
models with a better depiction of the storm's environment. These
data will be reflected primarily in the 00Z run of the GFS.

[YoshiMike]

12Z GFS ensembles - as Rock pointed out, look at that wide range of solutions with many now straight into the Gulf, probably the weaker intensity runs? If it stays real weak in the Bahamas/Cuba area maybe it can keep heading WNW? There is another group that take it to the SE Coast of Florida or just off of and probably are the stronger intensity solutions.

This looks like its definitely going to get CONUS involved. I'm in the gulf, and I know this is terrible to say but I hope ot doesn't hit me, cuz it seems if it doesn't hit me, it will hit someone else. That's if it would survive the gulf. I haven't really been paying attention because I have been busy, so I really don't know what's going on. I need to look into it more I guess. And I mean a TS hitting us wouldn't be that bad, its when it gets to like cat 2 when Mississippi gets worried apparently (idk I've only been here for two years)

[wxmann_91]

One of our local mets just did a rundown of the models and particularly praised the GFDL calling it "one of our most dependable models". My thought was maybe if this was 2005 lol.

Remember that back in the day Avila would sprinkle some of his discussions with "GFDL is a reliable model" or something to that idea? Back in the day...