ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Out of curiosity, does anyone recall if the UK and the NAV-GEM's 12Z runs were trending weaker or stronger than their respective 0Z & 6Z runs?

NAV-GEM I believe was stronger...but don't quote me on that.

[CourierPR]

:uarrow: meaning?

It weakens it from just north of Eastern Cuba to near Miami, I would have expected at least a slow strengthening over those VERY warm SST's!

Is the ECM good on intensity forecasts?

[Dean4Storms]

Strange, ECM has Erika at 46kts at 60 hrs and weakens it to 35kts prior to landfall.

I think the ECM is picking up on stronger SW shear in the Gulf at that time.

I don't see any there from 500mb to 200mb. Only thing I can think of is dry air!

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: meaning?

It weakens it from just north of Eastern Cuba to near Miami, I would have expected at least a slow strengthening over those VERY warm SST's!

Is the ECM good on intensity forecasts?

models are having a really tough time with intensity and thus track on this one...we really need a more mature system for the models to do their work

[Dean4Storms]

Mid-Level ECM @ 60 hours.




Upper level ECM @ 60 hours.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET image, FL straits and SE Gulf:

[AutoPenalti]

Mid-Level ECM @ 60 hours.




Upper level ECM @ 60 hours.

Sorry to ask, but what is that suppose to mean?

[Dean4Storms]

Trough over upper Gulf doesn't appear to be inducing any strong SW winds over the FL Straits to cause weakening.

[BucMan2]

Could ECM be over doing the trough?

[SouthFLTropics]

Anybody got the latest UKMET strength when near FL?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles - as Rock pointed out, look at that wide range of solutions with many now straight into the Gulf, probably the weaker intensity runs? If it stays real weak in the Bahamas/Cuba area maybe it can keep heading WNW? There is another group that take it to the SE Coast of Florida or just off of and probably are the stronger intensity solutions.

[TheStormExpert]

Overall the models trend seems to be weaker and further west.

[Steve]

Could ECM be over doing the trough?

Maybe. But then run the long range GFS (off the NCEP site) that goes out to Day 16. The trough lifts but ends up being replaced with a cut off upper level low larger than but centered around Louisiana. The cutoff low exists by the time Erika gets to 30 North (be it in the Gulf, in Florida or in the Atlantic) and basically remains almost all the way through the end of the run but ends up itself getting kicked out with another shortwave coming down in its place. That could be the end of this upper trough pattern here (which would end with 3) prior to an anticipated warmer than normal September (JMA, CFSV2) for the Southeastern US. For Erika, it just means that she can only get so far west without getting blasted by shear. The trough (and eventual cutoff ULL) remain narrow in width this year which is a little different than what we usually see in an El Nino pattern.

[deltadog03]

My new track is up on my Facebook and Twitter pages...Links are below, thanks for the new likes and follows on Twitter, but here is the map. -Chris

[thundercam96]

18Z Intensity models via Wunderground

[WeatherEmperor]

My new track is up on my Facebook and Twitter pages...Links are below, thanks for the new likes and follows on Twitter, but here is the map. -Chris

Your track looks good. I agree with it. Do you think the models will keep it west no matter how strong or weak Erika gets?


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[AdamFirst]

:uarrow: meaning?

It weakens it from just north of Eastern Cuba to near Miami, I would have expected at least a slow strengthening over those VERY warm SST's!

I believe that is because the EURO shows a trough digging in, bringing in easterly shear.

[CourierPR]

:uarrow: meaning?

It weakens it from just north of Eastern Cuba to near Miami, I would have expected at least a slow strengthening over those VERY warm SST's!

I believe that is because the EURO shows a trough digging in, bringing in easterly shear.

Wouldn't a trough bring westerly shear?

[AdamFirst]

Wouldn't a trough bring westerly shear?

Probably, I'm not certain. That's a question the promets can answer. But the EURO does show a trough digging in.

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow: meaning?

It weakens it from just north of Eastern Cuba to near Miami, I would have expected at least a slow strengthening over those VERY warm SST's!

I believe that is because the EURO shows a trough digging in, bringing in easterly shear.

Not when I look at its upper air 12z forecasts. Only winds above 15 kts is upper central Gulf and even that slowly lifts northward beyond 60 hours.