ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

The 12Z NAVGEM along the SE Florida coastline and is with the latest GFS model track and shows an intensifying system here:

Ill give the NOCRAPS one thing. Its been dead on consistant with this scenario.

[gatorcane]

Another look at the GFS from the NCEP site with the track back over SE Florida. Also the ECMWF is over SE Florida and the consensus ECMWF track from the last 3 runs is SE Florida. That is some good consensus starting to build here. That eastward trend in the models we saw yesterday is reversing.

[eastcoastFL]

The 12Z NAVGEM along the SE Florida coastline and is with the latest GFS model track and shows an intensifying system here:

What is the intensity? I cant tell.

[Alyono]

MU moves this back offshore after landfall and threatens to do a Sandy, before going to Nova Scotia... in 16 days

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is having output issues again on Tropicaltidbits.com. Anyone have the updated 12z?

[Blown Away]

MU moves this back offshore after landfall and threatens to do a Sandy, before going to Nova Scotia... in 16 days

Landfall where?

[Hurricane Andrew]

MU moves this back offshore after landfall and threatens to do a Sandy, before going to Nova Scotia... in 16 days

Please excuse what may be a stupid question, but what is the MU? Until Danny, I have never heard of that unless by MU you mean Mad Uncle ie CMC.

[tolakram]

MU moves this back offshore after landfall and threatens to do a Sandy, before going to Nova Scotia... in 16 days

Please excuse what may be a stupid question, but what is the MU? Until Danny, I have never heard of that unless by MU you mean Mad Uncle ie CMC.

GFS

[Weatherboy1]

Well, echoing what's been said already... models practically have any merit at the moment. Erika is giving NHC fits, given her sporadic nature to strengthen and weaken due to multiple mitigating conditions. We're now have had to relocate the center, and NHC is calling for even stronger shear for at least 24-48 hours. Then,
Erika could get decapitated by shear today, surface flow could unexpectedly move Erika at 270 degrees for another day, could trek through the Mona passage OR directly over Hispanola and lose its identity....and finally as if that wernt enough, NONE of the models are able to get a solid grasp of the 500mb flow for 72-120 hours out???

Yeah, I think I'm inclined to first see "what" finally emerges from the Caribbean, before buying into model guidance whose software may have to be returned to the closest Walmart.

LOL. Pretty good summary there. I liked the model graphic from yesterday or the day before where it showed the GFS ensembles. One finished the forecast period off the coast of Canada ... another had the system dying out over Oklahoma. Phew, that helps!

[Hurricane Andrew]

MU moves this back offshore after landfall and threatens to do a Sandy, before going to Nova Scotia... in 16 days

Please excuse what may be a stupid question, but what is the MU? Until Danny, I have never heard of that unless by MU you mean Mad Uncle ie CMC.

GFS

Oh, alright. Thanks a bunch!

[deltadog03]

12z HWRF looks like its heading for a MIA landfall. Not completed yet, and dat is choppy on TT, but appears** to be heading that way and strengthening.

[OuterBanker]

There has been some consistency in the models.
Every morning it seems to be headed for the Carolinas.
Every afternoon it’s headed for Florida.
From now on I’m only checking in the afternoon.

[BigB0882]

Yeah, I am not quick to say "oh yeah, we have model consensus!!" because in this case consensus does not equal consistency. It may just be luck that more models are aligning this afternoon, will that last into tonight and tomorrow?

[gatorcane]

12z HWRF looks like its heading for a MIA landfall. Not completed yet, and dat is choppy on TT, but appears** to be heading that way and strengthening.

12Z HWRF below. Yowza:

[tgenius]

Euro just kicked off no? I wonder if it will shift west too...

[gatorcane]

Euro just kicked off no? I wonder if it will shift west too...

The Euro already shows a SE Florida (Miami-Dade) landfall (as a TS) on the 00Z run. Perhaps the other models are just catching up to it.

12Z Euro running shortly...

[tolakram]

12Z Euro init, looks too far north but hard to tell.

[Raebie]

There has been some consistency in the models.
Every morning it seems to be headed for the Carolinas.
Every afternoon it’s headed for Florida.
From now on I’m only checking in the afternoon.

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

That HWRF run is concerning.