ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

Last image from me.

[ronjon]

UMKET into the E GOM

Text output?

Not surprised. might see more shifts west from other models. Again, not sure how much stock to put into these now - might have to wait another 48 hrs to know with some precision.

[deltadog03]

My guess** would be we see a EURO A little stronger and a smidge further WEST than 00z run.. Notice how the GFS (at 500mb) is more west with the trof over the south. its over TX for the most part. That will allow Erika to come further west.

[ronjon]

My guess** would be we see a EURO A little stronger and a smidge further WEST than 00z run.. Notice how the GFS (at 500mb) is more west with the trof over the south. its over TX for the most part. That will allow Erika to come further west.

Yeah delta that trough over the north-central GOM is gonna be the key to this track forecast. Does it cutoff and retrograde west?

[Stormcenter]

This does not surprise me one bit.

UMKET into the E GOM

[ROCK]

12Z at 84hr NAM for entertainment....not looking at the Erika per se but the pattern over CONUS.....

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... M&ps=model

[DESTRUCTION5]

This does not surprise me one bit.

UMKET into the E GOM

Said it yesterday. ..Window washing effect in full force now. And not over yet.

[deltadog03]

My guess** would be we see a EURO A little stronger and a smidge further WEST than 00z run.. Notice how the GFS (at 500mb) is more west with the trof over the south. its over TX for the most part. That will allow Erika to come further west.

Yeah delta that trough over the north-central GOM is gonna be the key to this track forecast. Does it cutoff and retrograde west?

Agreed! That trof is the key to all the movement..Whether is strong or not, thats gonna drive the forces to see what sup. If its further back west like the GFS, than the Bahamas are very well ventilated and it should get stronger and I could plausibly see a GFS path happening...big IF** it may not survive the islands tho.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

HWRF 12 hours

[tolakram]

HWRF looks like a horrible init, who the hell is running that anyway?

[tolakram]

PR is surrounded.

[tolakram]

[ROCK]

12Z at 72HR NAVGEM...

look out FL...ouch.. thank goodness its just the NAVGEM!

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[chaser1]

Well, echoing what's been said already... models practically have any merit at the moment. Erika is giving NHC fits, given her sporadic nature to strengthen and weaken due to multiple mitigating conditions. We're now have had to relocate the center, and NHC is calling for even stronger shear for at least 24-48 hours. Then,
Erika could get decapitated by shear today, surface flow could unexpectedly move Erika at 270 degrees for another day, could trek through the Mona passage OR directly over Hispanola and lose its identity....and finally as if that wernt enough, NONE of the models are able to get a solid grasp of the 500mb flow for 72-120 hours out???

Yeah, I think I'm inclined to first see "what" finally emerges from the Caribbean, before buying into model guidance whose software may have to be returned to the closest Walmart.

[Jevo]

These forums will start getting busy if we can get a model or two saying GOM. Still too far our to be sure and the windshield wiping is real, but it's nice to see the activity.

[ROCK]

NAVGEM at 120hr 12Z...looks like the last GFS run..sort of...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

heres a loop

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[drezee]

GEM for 12z pulls a Sandy left turn into New Jersey! Are you kidding me?

[ROCK]

CMC loves to destory every major city it seems...

[AutoPenalti]

GEM for 12z pulls a Sandy left turn into New Jersey! Are you kidding me?

That has to be a joke, right?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z NAVGEM along the SE Florida coastline and is with the latest GFS model track and shows an intensifying system here: