ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

Same general story, strengthening as it pull south of the Bahamas a slong as it's not over land.

[Evil Jeremy]

The GFS gives Erika a solid 36 hours in the Bahamas after Hispanola, before Florida. Assuming the conditions are favorable, that's enough time for a storm to revive itself. And again, Hispanola wouldn't hurt a disorganized system as much as it would an organized one (there's simly less to disrupt).

[Bocadude85]

What a nightmare this must be for the NHC. Florida will be in the 3 day cone by 11pm tonight. At what point are watches issued? What type of watches to issue? Glad I do not have their job right now.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[PTrackerLA]

Full res GFS on tropical tidbits isn't showing the minimum pressure but it looks like a solid hurricane right near Savannah.

[SunnyThoughts]

Not huge by any means, but man thats a lot of isobars.

[hohnywx]

I am not sure we can believe any models at the moment until she actually has a center to initialize the model with... right? For example, if this latest GFS run is just a hair north of the current NHC center fix won't that have down the road track implications? If she keeps moving west I can see the cone of death move west with her.

I was just going to post the same thing...very good point

[tolakram]

This is nothing but entertainment IMO, still not enough information until north of Hispaniola. As someone else said earlier.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=96


CMC 36 hours

[deltadog03]

yes this would be a very solid hurricane near SAV to CHS and it crawls up the coastline of FL. Strengthening along the way.

[Alyono]

UMKET into the E GOM

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS is about as close to a Hurricane David track as you can get.

[AtlanticWind]

UMKET into the E GOM

How strong?

[tolakram]

[Siker]

UMKET into the E GOM

Text output?

[Evil Jeremy]

What a nightmare this must be for the NHC. Florida will be in the 3 day cone by 11pm tonight. At what point are watches issued? What type of watches to issue? Glad I do not have their job right now.

TS watches 48 hours from the earliest effects... So I would say 5am Saturday would be the earliest watches would be issued for SE Florida. Even though a weak hurricane is currently forecasted, I can see the NHC going TS Watch, then TS Warning with a Hurricane Watch route.

[ronjon]

Let's see what the 12z HWRF and ECM have to say.

[tolakram]

Appears to landfall on GA/SC border.