ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

10:30 GFS and EURO around 12:45

Just to clarify...that would be 11:30EDT and 1:45EDT

[Kohlecane]

10:30 GFS and EURO around 12:45

so 11:30 and 1:45 EDT ??

[stormlover2013]

lol my bad southfl

[cycloneye]

Sad news from Dominica.

@antiguaomg · 23m23 minutes ago
Three people are reportedly dead from the floods in Dominica #TSErika

[Aric Dunn]

from radar and sat it appears there may be a reformation in progress more embedded in the convection. radar showing increased bandinf features on the east and se side.. interesting..

[Dean4Storms]

I believe the floods in Dominica are from Danny's remnants not Erika, correct?

No, they are from Erika.



Watch the video.. raging rivers taking a buildign down in Dominiica
http://www.weather.com/safety/hurricane ... da-impacts

I'm sorry msbee, I thought you meant the Dominican Republic, didn't catch that you meant the island of Dominica!

[SouthFLTropics]

I think I see the center scooting off to the W or WNW around 16.5N/63.1W. Well south of the forecast points. If that is indeed the center I see no way that this misses big islands.

SFT

[Fego]

I believe the floods in Dominica are from Danny's remnants not Erika, correct?

if I'm not misunderstanding you, Dominica the small island n the NE Caribbean, not Dominican Republic.

[Kohlecane]

anyone got a good radar link

[SouthFLTropics]

from radar and sat it appears there may be a reformation in progress more embedded in the convection. radar showing increased bandinf features on the east and se side.. interesting..

Do you have a fix on the possible coordinates...It looked to me like a vort was shot out to the west around 16.5N and 63.1W. I'm assuming you're looking further east than that.

[janswizard]

Dominica is reporting close to 9 inches of rain from Erika. They are in a state of emergency. Looks like lots of rebuilding will have to be done.

[Aric Dunn]

either that or its opening up into a wave..

[txwatcher91]

anyone got a good radar link

Try this one.
http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1440635457

[SouthFLTropics]

Dominica is reporting close to 9 inches of rain from Erika. They are in a state of emergency. Looks like lots of rebuilding will have to be done.

Sad and once again shows that it doesn't take a hurricane to mess up peoples lives. Any tropical system can mean business.

SFT

[Weatherboy1]

from radar and sat it appears there may be a reformation in progress more embedded in the convection. radar showing increased bandinf features on the east and se side.. interesting..

Do you have a fix on the possible coordinates...It looked to me like a vort was shot out to the west around 16.5N and 63.1W. I'm assuming you're looking further east than that.

Yes, it does very much appear a vorticity center is being spit out to the west in the last frame of this visible loop. If the center does reform under the convection, that would be a very interesting development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[gatorcane]

Thoughts on this image I marked up?

loop link:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[tolakram]

A center is now visible on this loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

If we can follow it and it rotates west then SW, etc then we know (I think) there are multiple vortices rotating around a larger center. Right now it appears to me moving NW, which would keep Erika close to track if this is the center.

[Aric Dunn]

from radar and sat it appears there may be a reformation in progress more embedded in the convection. radar showing increased bandinf features on the east and se side.. interesting..

Do you have a fix on the possible coordinates...It looked to me like a vort was shot out to the west around 16.5N and 63.1W. I'm assuming you're looking further east than that.

yeah you can see the vort/center clearly on visible. if there is multiple vorts which is completely possible then this has become less organized.. the low level structure seems to have become less defined.. will have to wait and see if its a reformation or not..

[redneck51]

@Dean4Storms: Dominica -- NOT Dominican Republic

[gatorcane]

A center is now visible on this loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

If we can follow it and it rotates west then SW, etc then we know (I think) there are multiple vortices rotating around a larger center. Right now it appears to me moving NW, which would keep Erika close to track if this is the center.

If that center you have pointed out is the same one I circled in my image above, looks pretty much W to me on the movement.