ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

I think the 8 am position is somewhat accurate. Recent radar trends suggest a center is attempting to become better defined just NW of Dominica. Recon is showing strong SW inflow into this region as well. It's hard to say what effect topography is playing on the low level winds.

[Gustywind]

Gustywind? What about a little report about what Erika is doing to Guadeloupe? It's straight over your head right now, right?

Things have calm down a bit since one hour. Nothing too serious in my area since this morning... some briefs and moderate squall line of showers accompanied with gusts 35-45 km/h with numerous lightnings, thunder. Nothing to kill a cat or a dog. Whereas seems that the easternmot tip of Guadeloupe .... Saint-François strong winds have been reported with nice amount of rain. IF i have more infos about that i will keep you informed. Whereas given our Pro Mets another rounds of showers and thunderstorms should spread on the island. We stay on orange code we continue to monitor very carefully TS ERIKA.

[cycloneye]

Dang!

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 10m10 minutes ago
And here's why the short-term for #Erika is so important. Reorganization of that tilted structure could relocate the storm entirely today.

[NDG]

New 12z tropical model package has Erika tracking over PR.

[tolakram]

live visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-64&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=90&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[TheStormExpert]

New 12z tropical model package has Erika tracking over PR.

I'm guessing we can expect a westward shift in track @ 11am?

[shortwave]

a Lot of models now have this tracking over domincan republic. Think this will seriously inhibit or even open Erika up?

[redneck51]

IF i have more infos about that i will keep you informed.

Thanks and good to hear things aren't too bad over there!

[NDG]

New 12z tropical model package has Erika tracking over PR.

I'm guessing we can expect a westward shift in track @ 11am?

They are going to have shift the track westward, at least for the short term, no other option.

Good news is that Erika could be kept at bay from organizing much from interacting with PR and possibly Hispaniola but the bad news is that it could keep her on a more westeard track towards FL but as a not so strong system, but too early to tell the intensity.

[cycloneye]

Definitly 11 AM track more southwest and closer or over PR.Big implications down the road because of land interaction over the island.The highest peak here is 4,338 feet vs Hispanola were peaks are around 10,000 feet.

[CaneCurious]

Dang!

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 10m10 minutes ago
And here's why the short-term for #Erika is so important. Reorganization of that tilted structure could relocate the storm entirely today.

I put a lot of trust in what Levi Cowan says because I so appreciate how he breaks things down for those of us who are weather enthusiasts but are confused by the some of the verbiage.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

a Lot of models now have this tracking over domincan republic. Think this will seriously inhibit or even open Erika up?

I've only seen the NavGem go over the DR. Maybe that changes

[Kohlecane]

I don't know if its just me but after watching this loop/rock...for about 5 min I noticed a WNW lift to it at the very last frame..
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[tolakram]

Erika has been lucky with shear so far, still high but not destructive. Threading the needle between two higher areas of shear.

[Frank2]

I have to go with the previous outcome - as with Danny, shear and land interaction could easily mean NO system at all...

Frank

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

I have to go with the previous outcome - as with Danny, shear and land interaction could easily mean NO system at all...

Frank

While that remains a distinct possibility it's not nearly as fun to discuss.. A more southerly track over the greater Antilles increases that potential.
edit to add disclaimer
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Please don't forget the disclaimer when making predictions. Maybe and might and could thrown into a prediction aren't disqualifiers for the disclaimer. Thanks!

[tolakram]

Latest with fixes.

[Blown Away]

Latest with fixes.

http://imageshack.com/a/img901/4513/ZP07zn.jpg

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 62.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


That S bump may keep Erika over PR and skirt DR... Likely keeping circulation weak and more westward longterm... JMHO Only, read my disclaimer...

[BucMan2]

May be the NVGEM was on to something?