ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Definitely better radar presentation of Erika.

[SapphireSea]

yeah something must have happened the data does not fit....

The VDM seems to be in an interesting spot from the estimated center and what we see in radar. Maybe stacking, but I would probobly sit back and wait could be a band they measured a spin on.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah something must have happened the data does not fit....

The VDM seems to be in an interesting spot from the estimated center and what we see in radar. Maybe stacking, but I would probobly sit back and wait could be a band they measured a spin on.

its common for circs to be pulled into the convection.. just the recon data of the pressure and wind direction is very wrong.. lol

[NDG]

Notice where recon fixed the center 16.5N
THE 2 AM advisory they had the coc at 16.8N this could have an effect on the track and strength of Erika down the road.

[SapphireSea]

yeah something must have happened the data does not fit....

The VDM seems to be in an interesting spot from the estimated center and what we see in radar. Maybe stacking, but I would probobly sit back and wait could be a band they measured a spin on.

its common for circs to be pulled into the convection.. just the recon data of the pressure and wind direction is very wrong.. lol

I see. Well that's what I meant for stacking. I doubt that this should impact the track much, but interesting about its short-term strength.

[NDG]

At this rate Erika is going to track right over P.R.
It better start gaining some serious latitude soon.

[Brent]

Recon climbed... that's very unusual in a weak/steady state storm.

[Aric Dunn]

another pass coming.. maybe a better wind profile this time....

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm.. there is something going on for sure.. wind profile is very strange.. though deeper convection is increasing on the east side pretty decent compared to what it was..

[Hammy]

Convection seems to have wrapped roughly three quarters around the center, only immediate west is devoid.

hmmm.. there is something going on for sure.. wind profile is very strange.. though deeper convection is increasing on the east side pretty decent compared to what it was..

Could the islands be causing odd wind shifts?

[OURAGAN]

The center is visible on radar, very near the North of Guadeloupe

[Aric Dunn]

Convection seems to have wrapped roughly three quarters around the center, only immediate west is devoid.

hmmm.. there is something going on for sure.. wind profile is very strange.. though deeper convection is increasing on the east side pretty decent compared to what it was..

Could the islands be causing odd wind shifts?

yeah thats what im thinking..

[Kingarabian]

Aren't those winds contaminated?

[OURAGAN]

You can see the center on barbados radar

[Aric Dunn]

alright well recon data is just all over the place even farther from the islands..

[Hammy]

The 5am discussion should certainly be interesting, between the 55kt winds and bizarre wind shifts.

[SapphireSea]

I believe that the convection is intensifying and causing all sorts of eddies with the land interaction. But, also in these systems there may be a few mesoscale vorts that can throw off things. I would assume that the values are not truely definitive of an organization of the system, but more along the lines of it finding a better pocket of instability and generating convection that MAY lead it to organize. When DMIN comes around, we shall see what occurs. Furthermore, the current trough in the gulf needs to be watched; I see it pinching somewhat as predicted by the Euro, and if it spawns a cut-off it may be further west over TX. The easterly shifts have all been occurring because of the reinforcement of the trough causing a low to cut off; in addition to very weak steering currents that can be seen by observing that circulation off Cuba/FL barely moving.

[Brent]

50 mph with now 60 mph forecast through til the Bahamas

and then

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 29.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

[jlauderdal]

Here is my forecast for south florida:

no landfall, point of closest approach never closer than 125 miles, cat 2 as it goes by 26.2, 80...boom or bust there you go

[Brent]

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erika has
strengthened overnight, although it is not clear as to how much. The
central pressure dropped to around 1001 mb around 0540Z, but was
up to 1003 mb on the next fix about an hour later. The highest
850-mb flight-level winds sampled by the aircraft were 48 kt, which
would correspond to an intensity of around 40 kt. However, the
aircraft found SFMR winds of 45 to 55 kt near the center. Based on a
blend of these data, the initial intensity has been conservatively
raised to 45 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft will be investigating Erika again later this morning.

Aircraft data and satellite imagery show that Erika is still a
sheared tropical cyclone, with the deepest convection found east and
southeast of the center due to about 20 kt of westerly shear. The
models show the environment remaining unfavorable for significant
strengthening in the first 48 hours, with shear associated with an
upper-level trough west of Erika expected to increase to 25 to 30
kt. Given this, most of the intensity guidance shows little change
during the first couple of days and so does the NHC forecast. After
that time, the upper trough weakens and Erika should encounter a
more favorable upper-level pattern and warmer SSTs, which should
support intensification assuming that the cyclone survives the next
48 hours. The HWRF and GFDL are much stronger than the statistical
models this cycle, but the GFS and ECMWF now keep Erika weaker than
they did previously. The NHC forecast has been adjusted upward
slightly late in the period, but is well below the intensity
consensus given the large uncertainty and spread in the guidance.