ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

ok use this http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html look center could expose to west of storm area you have look hard see it west of big storm area

[Aric Dunn]

recon showing 1001 MB extrap.... thats a 5 mb drop since 11pm..

[northjaxpro]

recon showing 1001 MB extrap.... thats a 5 mb drop since 11pm..

Yeah, I just saw that as well. That is a significant drop in 3 hours.

[FireRat]

5 mb is significant indeed, D-max is likely helping Erika out tonight. It might weaken a little or hold steady tomorrow during the day as it interacts with PR and deals with D-min. However, the track will be crucial over the next 48 hours, I personally think we may not have a good handle on exactly what Erika may do regarding the States until late Friday, once it makes its way to the southeast Bahamas and leaves the vicinity of the DR.

I am seriously concerned about what may happen if Erika misses the DR well to the north and reaches the bathwater of the Bahamas. This is such a notorious region for rapid intensification, like Andrew and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane showed. However, then there's also the chance this could pull a Debby 2000 and die over the DR. Floridians should definitely not disregard this storm yet, wait a few days to see what happens once we get to the 3 day cone range and see if we're still in the cone then. Thursday night could also be another crucial moment as Erika may get another burst of energy while leaving PR.

Just for the record, these are my personal opinions and are not derived from the NHC, so the disclaimer certainly applies here. check with the nhc for official forecasts.

-FR

[Aric Dunn]

pretty apparent where the center is.. convection building on east and ne side for the first time..

[NDG]

I had a quick 2 hr nap, I see that recon finds a a little stronger Erika that is still not gaining much latitude.
Latest Euro has shifted westward and weaker.
The roller coaster continuous lol.

[Aric Dunn]

I had a quick 2 hr nap, I see that recon finds a a little stronger Erika that is still not gaining much latitude.
Latest Euro has shifted westward and weaker.
The roller coaster continuous lol.

pretty normal..

[SapphireSea]

Not sold on strengthening at all. TBH, until there is a stacking of the storm there is nothing happening. Infact too much convection away from the center can kill the LLC with outflow, especially when there is shear even if minimal.

[Hammy]

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)

From latest VDM

[chaser1]

All I know is that this time i kept my receipt. That way if Erika continues to be indecisive, I'm simply gonna march on into NHC and demand an exchange for a more functional tropical cyclone, LOL. Nite' all.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sold on strengthening at all. TBH, until there is a stacking of the storm there is nothing happening. Infact too much convection away from the center can kill the LLC with outflow, especially when there is shear even if minimal.

its not going to strengthen much but it is showing signs of organizing some for sure. the shear will keep it in check. all we are doing now is waiting to see how well it hold together till the shear drops.

[Aric Dunn]

that last pass showed the very weak winds on the sw side barely looks closed ill wait for the next pass though ... the circ may be struggling..

[Brent]

URNT12 KWBC 270652
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052015
A. 27/06:36:13Z
B. 16 deg 31 min N
060 deg 55 min W
C. 850 mb 1468 m
D. 56 kt
E. 005 deg 8 nm
F. 113 deg 48 kt
G. 021 deg 24 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 18 C / 1523 m
J. 23 C / 1552 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 1 / 2 nm
P. NOAA3 0505A ERIKA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 48 KT 021 / 24 NM 06:29:44Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 160 / 15 KTS
IMPROVED RADAR PRESENTATION IN CENTER

[ozonepete]

Not sold on strengthening at all. TBH, until there is a stacking of the storm there is nothing happening. Infact too much convection away from the center can kill the LLC with outflow, especially when there is shear even if minimal.

its not going to strengthen much but it is showing signs of organizing some for sure. the shear will keep it in check. all we are doing now is waiting to see how well it hold together till the shear drops.

The current shear doesn't seem strong enough to kill it. If the shear doesn't get any worse then it should have its chance as it nears the Bahamas.

[ericinmia]

All I know is that this time i kept my receipt. That way if Erika continues to be indecisive, I'm simply gonna march on into NHC and demand an exchange for a more functional tropical cyclone, LOL. Nite' all.

Hahahaha! I loved the "more functional cyclone" phrasing...

[ericinmia]

URNT12 KWBC 270652
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052015
A. 27/06:36:13Z
B. 16 deg 31 min N
060 deg 55 min W
C. 850 mb 1468 m
D. 56 kt
E. 005 deg 8 nm
F. 113 deg 48 kt
G. 021 deg 24 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 18 C / 1523 m
J. 23 C / 1552 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 1 / 2 nm
P. NOAA3 0505A ERIKA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 48 KT 021 / 24 NM 06:29:44Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 160 / 15 KTS
IMPROVED RADAR PRESENTATION IN CENTER

While this VDM is very impressive, I wonder how much this has to do with the gradient of the actual cyclone vs. the towers that are popping due to Dmax

We shall see in a few more hours..... does it wane or maintain.

[Aric Dunn]

that last pass showed the very weak winds on the sw side barely looks closed ill wait for the next pass though ... the circ may be struggling..

Something is a little weird down there.. could be some eddy's from the mountains to the west disrupting that small area..

[Brent]

URNT12 KWBC 270652
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052015
A. 27/06:36:13Z
B. 16 deg 31 min N
060 deg 55 min W
C. 850 mb 1468 m
D. 56 kt
E. 005 deg 8 nm
F. 113 deg 48 kt
G. 021 deg 24 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 18 C / 1523 m
J. 23 C / 1552 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 1 / 2 nm
P. NOAA3 0505A ERIKA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 48 KT 021 / 24 NM 06:29:44Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 160 / 15 KTS
IMPROVED RADAR PRESENTATION IN CENTER

While this VDM is very impressive, I wonder how much this has to do with the gradient of the actual cyclone vs. the towers that are popping due to Dmax

We shall see in a few more hours..... does it wane or maintain.

I'm kind of surprised and definitely not convinced it's a long-term thing... but it's interesting nonetheless

[bahamaswx]

Convection seriously expanding out to the north and west over the LLC now.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah something must have happened the data does not fit....