ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Sanibel]

this of course will migrate and build away from the center until the shear lessens

The progress of the convection has been towards the center in the last few hours. Might even be covering it now when it was exposed all day. This is no doubt stronger convection.


I think this will all be moot once it gets north of the islands.

[tropicwatch]

radar showing deeper convection firing right on the the southern part of the center with a little trying to wrap around up the east side..

Looks like the center getting close to Guadeloupe.

[northjaxpro]

Latest GFS has it close, but no Florida landfall.

0Z GFS does however, have Erika riding along the coast within 50-100 miles through 126 hours up the entire Florida East Coast all the way to Charleston, SC at the end where she makes a landfall. So much uncertainty right now. the forecast is getting more complex by the hour ozonepete.

[ozonepete]

radar showing deeper convection firing right on the the southern part of the center with a little trying to wrap around up the east side..

Looks like the center getting close to Guadeloupe.

But the center will pass well north of Guadeloupe.

[Aric Dunn]

radar showing deeper convection firing right on the the southern part of the center with a little trying to wrap around up the east side..

Looks like the center getting close to Guadeloupe.

here you go.. looks like it will pass right between..

[img][/img]

[Sanibel]

The surface spiral is back out from under the convection and shooting ahead on NHC Trop points. You can just see it on Shortwave if your eye is good.

[txwatcher91]

Radar shows a nice band trying to wrap around the center and IR confirms an intense burst of convection near the center, probably the closest all day.

[Hurricaneman]

radar showing deeper convection firing right on the the southern part of the center with a little trying to wrap around up the east side..

Looks like the center getting close to Guadeloupe.

here you go.. looks like it will pass right between..

[img][/img]

This is a sign that things are starting to organize with Erika and I think by tomorrow evening this will start a strengthening trend

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[floridasun78]

how bad going get were Gustywind live at? this look wrost and danny came by them danny was much weaker when pass them

[Hammy]

Could the curl on radar being where it is be an indication that it's trying to get better stacked?

As an aside, when is the next recon flight?

[Fego]

Hi Aric, long time!. Hope everything is ok with you. How did you get that radar still image. I have tried but the image is "empty", nada mi amigo.

Per the 11 PM advisory, the X is where they estimated the COC to be. It has not gained much latitude this evening.

And lets add radar in on this get some perspective on how close that deep convection really is.. which is not all that close.. ...

[tropicwatch]

Start around 1100z

[Aric Dunn]

Hi Aric, long time!. Hope everything is ok with you. How did you get that radar still image. I have tried but the image is "empty", nada mi amigo.

Per the 11 PM advisory, the X is where they estimated the COC to be. It has not gained much latitude this evening.

And lets add radar in on this get some perspective on how close that deep convection really is.. which is not all that close.. ...

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?175

[txwatcher91]

LLC really showing on radar now a few light showers wrapping all around it. IR is showing an explosion of convection just east of the center.

[stormhunter7]

There are 3 planes doing research in TS Erika right now.. NASA G-Hawk.. 62kft.. to the nw now.. heading home... AF recon.. vortex storm.. and noaa p-3 doing a data request for model data by NOAA.

NOAA’s P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft will fly a Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) operational mission into Tropical Storm Erika. The P3 will depart at 2:00AM local time from Barbados and fly a seven hour mission. This flight is operationally tasked by NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC). EMC has requested this flight into Erika. The Doppler radar data collected during this will be transmitted in near realtime to NOAA’s hurricane weather forecast model. The dots on the flight track (shown in green) represent the aircraft turn points. The red dots in the figure show the locations that launch weather balloons twice a day while the purple dots are the locations that launch balloons once a day.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection definitely creeping up the east side a little... though some of it is just that its getting closer to the radar site and its seeing some more of the shallow convection..

[northjaxpro]

Aric, the LLC center is moving basically due west. At the angle of approach, it appears that Erika made move across the width of Puerto Ric. You see that trend maintaining?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, the LLC center is moving basically due west. At the angle of approach, it appears that Erika made move across the width of Puerto Ric. You see that trend maintaining?

well it for sure has a slight northerly component. if it stays convection free over the center( though looks like its trying to make some progress) then it would likely keep more of a west component. still think it will pass just north or clip the east side.. we shall shee by morning.

[floridasun78]

i was look different sat pic i cannot find low out storm area i use one you use for looking for low cannot see out storm area look is now cover by storm area i use Dvorak sat pic cannot find center Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure has probably come down a little bit..