ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[MGC]

It's still very possible his hits Hispaniola and gets shredded. Forecast track is only ever so slightly north of the island.

Lets hope this is what transpires for Erika. However, if you are in South Florida I'd get my supplies today as the panic will ensue shortly....MGC

[chaser1]

my team going play saturday night dolphins i trying think if this game can play sat night if we under watch or warring here i say if cone stay over south fl

Go Fins! Well, I'm guessing that parts of South Florida will be under a Hurricane Watch by game time; that said, I'm pretty sure that they'll still play the game. Now, had the timing be such that a Warning already be in place, than perhaps the game would be moved to an alternate location or simply cancelled/delayed for future date.

[fci]

my team going play saturday night dolphins i trying think if this game can play sat night if we under watch or warring here i say if cone stay over south fl

With possibility of Erika being in South Florida on Monday morning, I would not expect a Saturday night game to be canceled.

One more thing, not wishing to open a can of worms onto a prior discussion over the years; but I think necessary
People seem to be lamenting over "The Media Hype Machine" as if it is a bad thing.
Post after post complaining about this channel and that channel.
Yes, they do occasionally pass on wrong information and rumors.
Awareness for the masses is a GOOD thing.
If the media ignores a threat, people here bash them.
If the media talks up the threat, people here bash them.

The posters and readers of S2K are very knowledgeable and don't need the media talking about the possible storm incessantly. However, the general public hasn't had a storm down here for 10 years and need to prepare.
So, embrace the fact that the media jumps on the story as it can save property and lives.
Off of my soapbox.........

[drezee]

If Erika survives, it will have SSTs and TCHP in its favor for sure...



Side note: the TCHP in the NW Caribbean is in rare Western Pacific Territory...I hope for no Caribbean cruisers this year

[Steve]

People seem to be lamenting over "The Media Hype Machine" as if it is a bad thing.

I also mentioned it, though I wasn't making a judgment call on it being good or bad. It's true that the masses usually clue in after the enthusiasts. In that regard, people paying attention now can tie up more loose ends with less problems than those who wait until Friday or Saturday.

[Blown Away]

Very interesting, so I just went back to last Friday's 12z run to see what the Euro & GFS were forecasting for Erika to be this morning.
The Euro was spot on with Erika while the GFS had Erika as tropical wave.

Did the GFS ever show Danny reaching hurricane status?

[Frank2]

Erika looking disorganized - earlier diurnal convection weakening, and LLC can be seen in the last couple of frames:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Steve H.]

Erika is taking a good whipping right now. When convection drops off, she could very well be in trouble if the shear continues. In an El Nino year breaking up isn't hard to do


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like Global Hawk and a DC-8 are flying Erika right now.

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#view=status

[drezee]

Erika's Center just passed N of buoy 41300, NNW to SSW wind shift makes me think the LLC is elongated

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41300

[floridasun78]

issue i see that shear and dry air kill danny still in ne carribbean were Erika going to were danny got destory

[Hurricaneman]

Its shear is 20kts and dry air is erroding the northern half but in the next day or 2 it should mix out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[WYNweather]

my team going play saturday night dolphins i trying think if this game can play sat night if we under watch or warring here i say if cone stay over south fl

I am still planing on going season ticket holder. Have to see what my new seats look like Will be keeping an eye out east. At least i got my Bimini trip in last weekend. The weather was the best i have seen in a long time Flat as a pool fishing from Isaac lighthouse. Calm before the storm...

[NDG]

12z GFS is going to give a bit more confidence to the NHC that Erika will not die out over the next couple of days and that it will gain strength steadily after that as it tracks across the Bahamas.
Now lets see if the 12z Euro stays consistent with last night's run.

[NDG]

Very interesting, so I just went back to last Friday's 12z run to see what the Euro & GFS were forecasting for Erika to be this morning.
The Euro was spot on with Erika while the GFS had Erika as tropical wave.

Did the GFS ever show Danny reaching hurricane status?

I don't think so.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Very interesting, so I just went back to last Friday's 12z run to see what the Euro & GFS were forecasting for Erika to be this morning.
The Euro was spot on with Erika while the GFS had Erika as tropical wave.

Did the GFS ever show Danny reaching hurricane status?

I don't think so.

Didnt even show a storm on 06Z...The fact it has a closed low could be just the beginning of stronger runs to come.

[Steve]

12z GFS is going to give a bit more confidence to the NHC that Erika will not die out over the next couple of days and that it will gain strength steadily after that as it tracks across the Bahamas.
Now lets see if the 12z Euro stays consistent with last night's run.

Right. The strange thing is that with < 5 days before NHC track landfall, we have a legitimate hurricane threat that might not be anything of substance at least until the Bahamas. It's probably going to pulse up and down for the next 48-60 hours (or longer) as per the GFS anyway. And you have possibilities from an open wave with some squally weather to a deepening Category 1 - and we won't know probably until within 30 hours of potential FL landfall for sure. Some people might just stall out on making decisions, so I would bet that NHC probably continues to keep it classified as at least TD Erika (were it to degenerate) throughout the forecast period just to keep it fresh in people's minds.

[BucMan2]

Is this shear and dry air expected for today? I believe I read some one say this will be having ups and downs for the next few days- until it passes n of Hispaniola is that correct?

[ronjon]

Erika is really getting hammered by the NW shear - center is becoming exposed to the NW of the convection.

[gatorcane]

Erika is really getting hammered by the NW shear - center is becoming exposed to the NW of the convection.

Indeed but Erika is far larger than Danny. I think she has got a good shot at surviving until the Bahamas where conditions should improve.