ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

ok news in miami starting hourly report ch 4 start today not sure ch7 or ch10.ch6

[Steve]

The new NHC track is essentially
an update of the previous advisory and is close to a consensus of
the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and UKMET. This is also in good agreement
with the Florida State Superensemble.

On the current track, NHC has landfall early Monday morning. Today is probably the last day to cram down on supplies before getting stuck in lines all late week and this weekend. If I lived anywhere south of Brevard County, all of my cars and gas cans would be gassed up today, and all water/beer/nonperishables would be purchased in advance of the chaos you know is going to be out there as the hype increases. Better to have those types of things out of the way, so that you can focus on other things that might pop up in the next several days such as helping elderly relatives move things indoors, boarding up your windows, and being able to be flexible to roll with whatever sucker punches Erika might have in store beyond what is being considered now. Just my opinion, but the time and aggravation saved today could be big later.

[OuterBanker]

Good morning all. Looks like Erika has a strong will to live. Last night there were lots of epitaphs written. Looks like someone went in with paddles. Looking stronger that I would have imagined last night. Very symmetrical and expanding. I do understand that the recon doesn't match the appearance. Doesn't seem to be any pull north yet. I have no idea what to think. I do think south Fla hit. Even if Fla doesn’t get hit the damage by media hype will occur. Luckily it looks like we are going to escape Erika because the usual Fla saving trough won’t be present. No media damage either (don’t know which is worse).

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Bocadude85]

NHC is showing landfall in Palm Beach County now

More like northern Broward County to me.

Yea northern broward to southern palm beach counties.

[Sanibel]

The usual convection improvement with improving SST's near the islands. WX57's broad range is correct since, from the look of it, Erika could strengthen or dissipate still. Of course you always err on the safe side and consider this could be a disaster track at this time of the year. Don't shoot until you see the whites of its eyewall...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Just a friendly reminder. When you make predictions you must include the S2K disclaimer. You can place this disclaimer in your signature so you don't have to remember to include it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC is showing landfall in Palm Beach County now

More like northern Broward County to me.

Yea northern broward to southern palm beach counties.

That part is pretty irrelivent. If its a cane the COC would likely be as big as broward or bigger....

[SouthFLTropics]

ok news in miami starting hourly report ch 4 start today not sure ch7 or ch10.ch6

The media hype machine is in full effect!!! Home Depot and Lowes stock is rising!!!

[JPmia]

NHC is showing landfall in Palm Beach County now

More like northern Broward County to me.

Yea northern broward to southern palm beach counties.

That landfall location would be Pompano Beach - Boca Raton. Let me edit this to say the CURRENT forecast track.. it will change.. that we know for sure.

[Steve H.]

Meanwhile, Erika is starting to get hammered by shear. Before everyone starts running for the hills, let's see if we have a storm left in 48 hours.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AdamFirst]

Any reason why Erika is still on a primarily west heading?

[Sanibel]

The satellite view looks like shear from the SW at the upper, NW at the mid, and rotten air in the N quadrant.

[Steve]

The usual convection improvement with improving SST's near the islands. WX57's broad range is correct since, from the look of it, Erika could strengthen or dissipate still. Of course you always err on the safe side and consider this could be a disaster track at this time of the year. Don't shoot until you see the whites of its eyewall...

Agreed. Erika could go a lot of different ways, but the time of year and the likelihood of an area of ventilation east of a lifting/splitting/dying trough with a pending pattern reversal with a high overtop has the ingredients at least to give pause. Just the same, the GFS could be right and we have wave energy not doing much until Saturday or Sunday. Fun and interesting rest of the week ahead. I'm wondering if some of the energy that looked so good overnight that is dying off now is more at the mid levels since the coc is toward the NW side? That tends to get people every year.

[Blown Away]

I think it's very possible for this track to continue shifting South and West... Erika through the Straits into the EGOM is possible...

[Tireman4]

I think it's very possible for this track to continue shifting South and West... Erika through the Straits into the EGOM is possible...[/quote]

I agree. I think it still way too early, but I know nothing. I do not want it, nor anyone else for that matter.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tailgater]

The usual convection improvement with improving SST's near the islands. WX57's broad range is correct since, from the look of it, Erika could strengthen or dissipate still. Of course you always err on the safe side and consider this could be a disaster track at this time of the year. Don't shoot until you see the whites of its eyewall...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Amen, If I were in the Leeward and Virgin Isles, I would be watching carefully for any reduction in in shear which often happens after nightfall.
As always better safe than sorry.

[NDG]

Very interesting, so I just went back to last Friday's 12z run to see what the Euro & GFS were forecasting for Erika to be this morning.
The Euro was spot on with Erika while the GFS had Erika as tropical wave.

[bahamaswx]

It's still very possible his hits Hispaniola and gets shredded. Forecast track is only ever so slightly north of the island.

[Gustywind]

The usual convection improvement with improving SST's near the islands. WX57's broad range is correct since, from the look of it, Erika could strengthen or dissipate still. Of course you always err on the safe side and consider this could be a disaster track at this time of the year. Don't shoot until you see the whites of its eyewall...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Amen, If I were in the Leeward and Virgin Isles, I would be watching carefully for any reduction in in shear which often happens after nightfall.
As always better safe than sorry.

Thanks to you . I appreciate the way you consider the level of danger. We will continue to follow carefully Erika in case of any intensification, change in the path, etc. All the Leewards should monitor with very interress the progress of Erika.

[floridasun78]

my team going play saturday night dolphins i trying think if this game can play sat night if we under watch or warring here i say if cone stay over south fl