ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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northjaxpro
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#801 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:53 am

HWRF scored some points with nailing Danny last week. Not far-fetched whatsoever to see this possibly come close to fruition.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#802 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:55 am

:eek: :eek: :eek:

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#803 Postby YoshiMike » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:55 am

Yo that's scary...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#804 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:55 am

Surface winds look to translate in at around 90 mph...upper Cat 1, Low Cat 2 range. With all the high rises in Dade and Broward that's more than enough to rack up some high damage estimates.
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#805 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:55 am

It looks like this run of the HWRF has Erika moving much more w to wnw at the end rather than northerly as earlier runs showed.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#806 Postby ericinmia » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:56 am

Again, 850mb winds here :darrow: , Surface windows are at 81 Knots (10 meter).

This track extrapolated out another 4-6 hours (All things being roughly equal) would bring her ashore in Broward County....

I am curious if the Euro will still not latch onto anything, the way the GFS has at 00z.

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#807 Postby boca » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:00 am

Was the HWRF model upgraded recently?
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#808 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:00 am

Euro should be running soon...will it pull a crazy Ivan and flip flop from 12z back to last nights 00z or will it stay in line with the GFS??? :think:
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#809 Postby ericinmia » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:02 am

GFDL 00z Bombs this out at only 126hrs! :roll: :eek: :darrow:

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#810 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:02 am

boca wrote:Was the HWRF model upgraded recently?



Yes..
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#811 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:05 am

EURO looks stronger this run so far. Just north of PR hr54
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#812 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:05 am

Euro looking weaker so far this run to start out.

edit: scratch that, I've only seen through 24 hours.
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#813 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:06 am

^So...which is it? :double:
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#814 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:06 am

A little weaker at hour 66....just NW of PR
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#815 Postby ericinmia » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:06 am

So the Euro is Stronger and Weaker! :hehe:
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Re:

#816 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:07 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:^So...which is it? :double:


We posted at the same time but his shows farther out than what I was looking at. 48hr is stronger than previous run.
Last edited by Hammy on Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#817 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:07 am

GFDL is much more NE than the HWRF at hour 126

Euro does appear stronger north of PR.
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#818 Postby ericinmia » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:09 am

GFDL and HWRF are differing greatly in location at 126 hrs....

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Look at the location and strength of that Ridge over Erika in the HWRF.... that is the difference.
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Re:

#819 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:11 am

ericinmia wrote:GFDL and HWRF are differing greatly in location at 126 hrs....



GFDL: Good For Daily Laughs :P

I'd go with the HWRF out of these two, the GFDL has a horrible track record of severely over-forecasting everything.
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#820 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:12 am

HR 84 is a little slower than 12z run, but MUCH stronger from what I can tell. Its a little slower, and approaching the Bahamas. Nice ridge to its north.
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