ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Great having you in here tonight Jonathan! Great to see you on the forums along with Ozonepete. I have high regard for each of you and thanks for bringing back some sanity back on this forum with your thoughts Jonathan. I agree with everything you stated. People in the Bahamas and all across the Florida peninsula and along the Southeast U.S.coast should remain vigilant the rest of this week , through this weekend and possibly into early next week.

And great having you here as always northjax. You are one of the people on here that everyone needs to pay attention to. And of course listen to your own advice: you are clearly in the area that may be strongly affected.

Yeah, ozonepete it has me watching that's for sure. The set-up with just the potential track is reminding me somewhat of Floyd in 1999. If Erika goes through or along the Greater Antilles chain, especially possibly interacting with Hispaniola, the track set-up could be something similar to David in 1979. But, for the time being, I think what happens the next 48 hours will tell the story. If Erika can organize enough or stay intact as a classifiable system moving through the NE Caribbean and can overall miss being impacted by Hispaniola, I will begin to get really concerned. Conditions after 48 hours in the area of the Bahamas look rather conducive for Erika to develop. I touched on this earlier tonight and you can't stress it enough in that Andrew and Katrina were very weak systems as they entered that area in the Bahamas, and of course, you know the rest of the story........

[YoshiMike]

*raises hand* I have a question.

What is stacking? Just like clouds on top of each other? And why is it significant?

Think of pancakes. There are multiple layers or pancakes in a tropical system. In this case, the lower pancake was off center to the north earlier in the day. The mid level center was down to the south and southwest. Each pancake keeping the others warmer than they would do by themselves. The warmer the pancakes, the thicker they are, and the more heat can be retained. Together in one spot, they are the warmest. Tropical cyclones are driven by that heat. More heat = healthier system and better pancakes.

ASCAT suggests a new center is forming with better stacking

okay so if they are all stacked up perfectly it helps circulation and formation. Your explanation was great too. I saw your reply after I posted. Im appreciative of your response too. Thank you buddy.

[ozonepete]

*raises hand* I have a question.

What is stacking? Just like clouds on top of each other? And why is it significant?

Think of pancakes. There are multiple layers or pancakes in a tropical system. In this case, the lower pancake was off center to the north earlier in the day. The mid level center was down to the south and southwest. Each pancake keeping the others warmer than they would do by themselves. The warmer the pancakes, the thicker they are, and the more heat can be retained. Together in one spot, they are the warmest. Tropical cyclones are driven by that heat. More heat = healthier system and better pancakes.

ASCAT suggests a new center is forming with better stacking

Ha ha Jonathan that is so funny we both came up with pancakes. LMAO. I guess we were both hungry?

[JonathanBelles]

*raises hand* I have a question.

What is stacking? Just like clouds on top of each other? And why is it significant?

Think of pancakes. There are multiple layers or pancakes in a tropical system. In this case, the lower pancake was off center to the north earlier in the day. The mid level center was down to the south and southwest. Each pancake keeping the others warmer than they would do by themselves. The warmer the pancakes, the thicker they are, and the more heat can be retained. Together in one spot, they are the warmest. Tropical cyclones are driven by that heat. More heat = healthier system and better pancakes.

ASCAT suggests a new center is forming with better stacking

Ha ha Jonathan that is so funny we both came up with pancakes. LMAO. I guess we were both hungry?

I thought I just ate, but I guess I'll have to try again. lol

[jaxfladude]

Great having you in here tonight Jonathan! Great to see you on the forums along with Ozonepete. I have high regard for each of you and thanks for bringing back some sanity back on this forum with your thoughts Jonathan. I agree with everything you stated. People in the Bahamas and all across the Florida peninsula and along the Southeast U.S.coast should remain vigilant the rest of this week , through this weekend and possibly into early next week.

And great having you here as always northjax. You are one of the people on here that everyone needs to pay attention to. And of course listen to your own advice: you are clearly in the area that may be strongly affected.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I live in Jacksonville, Florida, need to watch this system closely... Thanks to all the Pro-Mets and the others that are giving good info and opinions.

[AutoPenalti]

How in the world did both you pros come up with almost the exact same analogy ??? LOL

Well, great minds do think alike.

[northjaxpro]

Great having you in here tonight Jonathan! Great to see you on the forums along with Ozonepete. I have high regard for each of you and thanks for bringing back some sanity back on this forum with your thoughts Jonathan. I agree with everything you stated. People in the Bahamas and all across the Florida peninsula and along the Southeast U.S.coast should remain vigilant the rest of this week , through this weekend and possibly into early next week.

And great having you here as always northjax. You are one of the people on here that everyone needs to pay attention to. And of course listen to your own advice: you are clearly in the area that may be strongly affected.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I live in Jacksonville, Florida, need to watch this system closely... Thanks to all the Pro-Mets and the others that are giving good info and opinions.

I live out in extreme Northern Duval County not far from the NWS Jax office at the airport. Jaxfladue, would love to see you more often on here. Yeah, we have to monitor Erika closely the next 5-7 days. But, it is good you are here on this forum helping me representing the Jax area on Storm2K.

[YoshiMike]

In my personal opinion, I am kinda ruling out a gulf coast hit. Just seems like it wont at this point. Now i mean its never certain, but I have been watching this very closely just in case. Some of the BAMS/BAMM/BAMD at one point, pointed a possible gulf coast hit, but I feel like I can relax a little. Still watching closely. I honestly dont know too much about intensity and factors of intensification/dissipation to post how I feel about Erika, and again, everything is so up in the air, so I guess I will just see how things go for like 72 hours. I am off for the next two days so you know what I'm gonna be doing

[galaxy401]

Erika is going to be a wildcard to predict. It needs to slow down if it wants to organize. The East Caribbean tends to be a death zone for storms so we'll see if it can survive. Got to keep an eye on it. Dmax could help it right now.

[YoshiMike]

You got that right buddy

[JtSmarts]

Some nice reds and a little black showing up in that ball of convection.

[ozonepete]

In my personal opinion, I am kinda ruling out a gulf coast hit. Just seems like it wont at this point. Now i mean its never certain, but I have been watching this very closely just in case. Some of the BAMS/BAMM/BAMD at one point, pointed a possible gulf coast hit, but I feel like I can relax a little. Still watching closely. I honestly dont know too much about intensity and factors of intensification/dissipation to post how I feel about Erika, and again, everything is so up in the air, so I guess I will just see how things go for like 72 hours. I am off for the next two days so you know what I'm gonna be doing

The current forecast data support your point. There is likely going to be a trough over the eastern U.S. that reaches all the way down to Florida (a U-shaped trough of steering winds means the steering winds will blow from Canada down the Mississippi River to the eastern Gulf and then make a sharp turn northward over Florida and go up the east coast.) South to north winds along the southeast coast, or quite possibly southwest to northeast winds, leaves very little chance that an approaching hurricane could get further into the Gulf even if it crosses most of Florida.

[YoshiMike]

Oh, cool. I guess I am picking up on some stuff.

Either way, ill be watching because hurricanes interest me.

[ericinmia]

Erika loves her Dinural "rest"....

She appears to be popping, now lets see how long that lasts....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Hammy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-wv-long.html

Water vapor shows the air to the west may be moistening and Erika's trying to form some hint of outflow.

[bahamaswx]

LLC looks to be almost completely engulfed. She's no longer naked (almost!).

[ericinmia]

LLC looks to be almost completely engulfed. She's no longer naked (almost!).

If only we had night vision.... and could see a visible!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

That Tower is continuing to expand, I don't want to go to bed; I would like to see if it can hold on, and how far it expands.
If the storm is beginning to stack up and that resulted in this Pop.... that could mean that she might pass the DR as a healthy storm, vs. an open wave.

[northjaxpro]

132 hour EURO shows Erika making landfall as a Category 1 tropical cyclone in Southeast Florida.

[Hammy]

132 hour EURO shows Erika making landfall as a Category 1 tropical cyclone in Southeast Florida.

I think quite a few people might be a bit surprised when they wake up tomorrow. This also means another late night, staying up until the next advisory comes out.

[SFLcane]

132 hour EURO shows Erika making landfall as a Category 1 tropical cyclone in Southeast Florida.

Intensifying one at that..