ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

So Wait, Erika is done now??
I should stop watching it since I live in FL.
I'll tell my friends not to watch it since it won't last.
That's what I'm getting from this blog

This is why we insist on the disclaimer. Tell your friends to pay attention to the experts, the NHC. This is a discussion forum where we discuss possible outcomes.

[Weatherlover12]

So Wait, Erika is done now??
I should stop watching it since I live in FL.
I'll tell my friends not to watch it since it won't last.
That's what I'm getting from this blog

I got your point. And I already can see that you take this seriously. It is very frustrating sometimes on here with so many different people offering opinions not backed by science, but for real insight just concentrate on the pro mets and the ones who have been around a long time and tend to be considerate. You will figure out who they are. And of course in the end it is the NHC and your local NWS who you have to trust the most. And of course ask us questions as often as you like. We just try to help here.

Thanks for understanding... It's been 10 years since we've been hit. Something tells me the luck is running out. It's just people are watching and it's frustrating. I see why Danny died but Erika is bigger. Thanks for understanding

[tolakram]

live ir loop. Ignore the big blob of convection firing.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-53&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[ozonepete]

What is Erika looking like now?
I believe it may be a weak storm but once it gets to the Bahamas.. That's when it'll gain strength

Yes. there's plenty of time. For now, if I lived where you do I'd keep a close eye on this and have my hurricane preps ready to execute. Don't let your guard down because it could really ramp up quickly as it gets into the Bahamas. We just don't know right now. Forecasts further than 3 days out are usually useless.

And you are welcome. I really do understand. These are, in the end, not a joking matter of course.

[hurricaneCW]

Another bursting period ongoing, could be due to rising SSTs.

[Weatherlover12]

Thanks everyone. I live in Vero Beach which is in south-central Florida. Plz keep us updated with info. I have a feeling about this storm so I'm watching this carefully

[tolakram]

That blob is much closer to the center fixes.

[Hammy]

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_METB/zooms/WMBas100.png

Looking a bit better on ASCAT, at least not nearly as elongated as the last several passes have been.

[northjaxpro]

So Wait, Erika is done now??
I should stop watching it since I live in FL.
I'll tell my friends not to watch it since it won't last.
That's what I'm getting from this blog

Absolutely not! Too many people here are caught by some models and two or three lines of text.

As a Floridian you should be monitoring this system until there is no cloud left. At the very least, rain chances are going up from the trough Wednesday through Friday depending on your location in Florida. The weekend is a whole different kind of forecast that will have to play out this week. You should be prepared either way.

Dissipation is only one possibility over the next 12-24 hours. Environmental conditions get better starting in 48-72 hours.

Great having you in here tonight Jonathan! Great to see you on the forums along with Ozonepete. I have high regard for each of you and thanks for bringing back some sanity back on this forum with your thoughts Jonathan. I agree with everything you stated. People in the Bahamas and all across the Florida peninsula and along the Southeast U.S.coast should remain vigilant the rest of this week , through this weekend and possibly into early next week.

[Hurricaneman]

That blob is much closer to the center fixes.

Based on this it looks like it could be stacking, we may have a surprise in the morning

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[psyclone]

perspective also matters a great deal. Erika is a designated cyclone...they have a performance/organizational threshold to maintain that designation. But imagine for a moment if Erika were just a disturbance with a potential to develop...we'd all be here obsessing over it. this time of year we really need to monitor things even if the odds appear stacked against development. we've all seen storms struggle only to encounter a window of development potential and those windows tend to be more numerous at this point in the season.

[ozonepete]

Great having you in here tonight Jonathan! Great to see you on the forums along with Ozonepete. I have high regard for each of you and thanks for bringing back some sanity back on this forum with your thoughts Jonathan. I agree with everything you stated. People in the Bahamas and all across the Florida peninsula and along the Southeast U.S.coast should remain vigilant the rest of this week , through this weekend and possibly into early next week.

And great having you here as always northjax. You are one of the people on here that everyone needs to pay attention to. And of course listen to your own advice: you are clearly in the area that may be strongly affected.

[YoshiMike]

*raises hand* I have a question.

What is stacking? Just like clouds on top of each other? And why is it significant?

[Hurricaneman]

*raises hand* I have a question.

What is stacking? Just like clouds on top of each other? And why is it significant?

stacking is When the MLC stacks up with the LLC without that the storm can't intensify or even dies in some cases

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[bahamaswx]

That blob is much closer to the center fixes.

Not sure how old those center fixes are but I'd peg the LLC much further west on the N-NNW edge of the current "blob".

[ozonepete]

*raises hand* I have a question.

What is stacking? Just like clouds on top of each other? And why is it significant?

Stacking is just like pancakes. A tropical cyclone must have it's critical layers, the low, middle and high layers stacked up nicely vertically with no leaning at all. If you think of the ice skater as they go into a tight spin, they must be standing straight up perfectly vertical, and then they can pull their arms in (which makes for a tight circulation) and they will spin very fast. If they lean over even a tiny bit, they start to wobble and then that wobble quickly slows them down and it is really hard to ever get that tight vertical spin back. So when any leaning over occurs or any time the layers are not stacked perfectly upwards vertically, you can't have the maximum spin.

[JonathanBelles]

*raises hand* I have a question.

What is stacking? Just like clouds on top of each other? And why is it significant?

Think of pancakes. There are multiple layers or pancakes in a tropical system. In this case, the lower pancake was off center to the north earlier in the day. The mid level center was down to the south and southwest. Each pancake keeping the others warmer than they would do by themselves. The warmer the pancakes, the thicker they are, and the more heat can be retained. Together in one spot, they are the warmest. Tropical cyclones are driven by that heat. More heat = healthier system and better pancakes.

ASCAT suggests a new center is forming with better stacking

[YoshiMike]

*raises hand* I have a question.

What is stacking? Just like clouds on top of each other? And why is it significant?

Stacking is just like pancakes. A tropical cyclone must have it's critical layers, the low, middle and high layers stacked up nicely vertically with no leaning at all. If you think of the ice skater as they go into a tight spin, they must be standing straight up perfectly vertical, and then they can pull their arms in (which makes for a tight circulation) and they will spin very fast. If they lean over even a tiny bit, they start to wobble and then that wobble quickly slows them down and it is really hard to ever get that tight vertical spin back. So when any leaning over occurs or any time the layers are not stacked perfectly upwards vertically, you can't have the maximum spin.

Wow.. You honestly couldn't have explained that better. I love this. Thank you so much!

[SouthFLTropics]

How in the world did both you pros come up with almost the exact same analogy ??? LOL

[ozonepete]

*raises hand* I have a question.

What is stacking? Just like clouds on top of each other? And why is it significant?

Stacking is just like pancakes. A tropical cyclone must have it's critical layers, the low, middle and high layers stacked up nicely vertically with no leaning at all. If you think of the ice skater as they go into a tight spin, they must be standing straight up perfectly vertical, and then they can pull their arms in (which makes for a tight circulation) and they will spin very fast. If they lean over even a tiny bit, they start to wobble and then that wobble quickly slows them down and it is really hard to ever get that tight vertical spin back. So when any leaning over occurs or any time the layers are not stacked perfectly upwards vertically, you can't have the maximum spin.

Wow.. You honestly couldn't have explained that better. I love this. Thank you so much!

You're welcome! Thanks for saying that! That's what we're here for.