ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Most notable is that it's slowing down.

And slowing down always indicates 2 things:
Better chance to intensify.
A possible track change.

[deltadog03]

I would agree with yall...this could just wind down and dissipate in the next 24-48 hours. **IF** it can hang in there, might be better by the Bahamas...Thats a big if right now if it makes it that far.

[ozonepete]

On their new advisory, the NHC admits a 35kt estimate is "probably generous". I agree. They also mention it could very well dissipate in the next day or so - that's quite possible. The center remains well-detached from any convection tonight. I do not see it re-forming farther south. My gut is saying its intensity when it nears south Florida may be closer to 25 kts than 65 kts. I'm not saying it can't be a hurricane, but I think it will be weaker. It could well dissipate tomorrow.

Accurate assessment.

[northjaxpro]

11p.m.NHC advisory now has the Florida peninsula (from both the west and east coasts)from basically the I-4 corridor southward in the cone of uncertainty out 120 hours.

[floridasun78]

what i see enter were Danny die the shear still their from danny and dry area

[NCSTORMMAN]

Erika should be dead by tomorrow. Never go against the magical shear that is in place it rips storms up for breakfast. Good thing too this thing could of been a lot worse. Convection is not wrapping around anything, convection seems to be dying off, and the storm looks more like a bunch of thunderstorms over the midwest than a TC.

[Weatherlover12]

Erika should be dead by tomorrow. Never go against the magical shear that is in place it rips storms up for breakfast. Good thing too this thing could of been a lot worse. Convection is not wrapping around anything, convection seems to be dying off, and the storm looks more like a bunch of thunderstorms over the midwest than a TC.

You Sure? Whatever gets in the Bahamas has a chance to redevelop

[SeGaBob]

Tomorrow you'll be talking about how it's strengthening... just give it some time before you say it'll do this or that. Florida should monitor this regardless.

[Hammy]

Deep convection rebuilding closer to the estimated center, closest it's been since forming.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-rbtop-long.html

None of the models had anything particularly strong at this time, and a few had it dissipating prior to restrengthening. I wouldn't go on current state as the sole indicator of future intensity.

[Weatherlover12]

:uarrow: And then tomorrow you'll be talking about how it's strengthening... just give it some time before you say it'll do this or that. Florida should monitor this regardless.

Thank you for saying this! Some of these people just don't get it

[Bocadude85]

What I do not understand is why Avila didn't reduce the intensity forecast if this may not survive? Why not show a ts at the 5 day point?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Erika should be dead by tomorrow. Never go against the magical shear that is in place it rips storms up for breakfast. Good thing too this thing could of been a lot worse. Convection is not wrapping around anything, convection seems to be dying off, and the storm looks more like a bunch of thunderstorms over the midwest than a TC.

Unless you have a time machine, making statements like these are very premature. I'm sure weather enthusiasts were saying the same thing in 1992 when Andrew was barely classifiable in the central Atlantic.*

* Since some like to take things out of context, no, I am not calling for an Andrew. But the overall idea that a storm's current presentation does not preclude significant strengthening later down the road remains.

[Hammy]

What I do not understand is why Avila didn't reduce the intensity forecast if this may not survive? Why not show a ts at the 5 day point?

I would assume for consistency, what if the next set of runs show a major again, and they have to flip back to hurricane.

[NCSTORMMAN]

:uarrow: Tomorrow you'll be talking about how it's strengthening... just give it some time before you say it'll do this or that. Florida should monitor this regardless.

lol sounds like what we are ALL doing. It is called conversation and observations.

[ConvergenceZone]

On their new advisory, the NHC admits a 35kt estimate is "probably generous". I agree. They also mention it could very well dissipate in the next day or so - that's quite possible. The center remains well-detached from any convection tonight. I do not see it re-forming farther south. My gut is saying its intensity when it nears south Florida may be closer to 25 kts than 65 kts. I'm not saying it can't be a hurricane, but I think it will be weaker. It could well dissipate tomorrow.

I agree wxman. There is absolutely nothing whatsoever impressive about Erika right now. I mean, many folks thought that Danny would hang on and hold together even though the models were showing otherwise, and look what happened, "poof!" . I'm expecting to wake up to either or wave or a very weak depression tomorrow morning.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Erika should be dead by tomorrow. Never go against the magical shear that is in place it rips storms up for breakfast. Good thing too this thing could of been a lot worse. Convection is not wrapping around anything, convection seems to be dying off, and the storm looks more like a bunch of thunderstorms over the midwest than a TC.

Unless you have a time machine, making statements like these are very premature. I'm sure weather enthusiasts were saying the same thing in 1992 when Andrew was barely classifiable in the central Atlantic.*

* Since some like to take things out of context, no, I am not calling for an Andrew. But the overall idea that a storm's current presentation does not preclude significant strengthening later down the road remains.

The NHC has went from straight hurricane to dissipating possibly. They do say uncertainty but I believe it is dead by tomorrow afternoon or at least an open wave. Danny did the same right at this same spot with the same conditions.

[SeGaBob]

That was my 1st post on this storm btw...

[Gustywind]

TS Erika is racing on a Westerly direction...


000
WTNT35 KNHC 260253
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 54.4W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and
the U.S Virgin Islands.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for Anguilla and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
British Virgin Islands.

The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

[ozonepete]

What I do not understand is why Avila didn't reduce the intensity forecast if this may not survive? Why not show a ts at the 5 day point?

I would assume for consistency, what if the next set of runs show a major again, and they have to flip back to hurricane.

Right, consistency, but also there are clearly better conditions possible as it moves into the Bahamas. It's a very complicated environment that keeps changing each time the models run.

[ConvergenceZone]

Erika should be dead by tomorrow. Never go against the magical shear that is in place it rips storms up for breakfast. Good thing too this thing could of been a lot worse. Convection is not wrapping around anything, convection seems to be dying off, and the storm looks more like a bunch of thunderstorms over the midwest than a TC.

Unless you have a time machine, making statements like these are very premature. I'm sure weather enthusiasts were saying the same thing in 1992 when Andrew was barely classifiable in the central Atlantic.*

* Since some like to take things out of context, no, I am not calling for an Andrew. But the overall idea that a storm's current presentation does not preclude significant strengthening later down the road remains.

I think we are talking about odds here. Yes, it could do something completely unexpected when it comes to getting stronger than anticipated, but I think we all agree that the chances of that is very slim(not that it can't happen)....I won't say that it will be "dead" in the morning, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to wake up to a wave or very weak depression. I think that's a very strong possibility. But I guess we will find out who's wrong and who's right tomorrow morning .......The last couple of seasons have made me much more skeptical