ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

Weaker than last run, no bomb to 954MB so far.

[Bocadude85]

HWRF is trending weaker so far. I'm wondering if the GFS and Euro are right?

[Siker]

Weaker than last run, no bomb to 954MB so far.

Weaker than the 06z but not the 12z.

[PTrackerLA]

Well the 18z GFDL was in a good mood this evening, bombs out to 949mb and looks a touch further north

[tolakram]

Rapid deepening at the end of the run.

[tgenius]

Rapid deepening at the end of the run.

At the very least (granted wayyyy out there) doesn't appear to be a SFL hit on that run. Any idea if that model run has the Recon data fed into it?

[tolakram]

HWRF further west, slower to deepen.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015082518&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=456

[ROCK]

hard to go against the GFS and EURO on their latest run. The trend has been west and weak for a few runs now...

CMC also follows the EURO and GFS...so some of the bigger boys

[tolakram]

hard to go against the GFS and EURO on their latest run. The trend has been west and weak for a few runs now...

CMC also follows the EURO and GFS...so some of the bigger boys

CMC is weak because it takes Erika over every Island, but the second it hits water it deepens, in reliable CMC fashion.



If the Euro continues to show a track over land, or a more southern track I'll feel better about it. Or, if the Euro takes a more northern track and doesn't develop it I'll feel better, but so far the difference seems to be land vs no land.

[DESTRUCTION5]

All models have one thing on common that strengthen. .When they reach 25 N...BOOM.

[Hammy]

I think the last runs may have initialized the system a bit farther south than it actually is due to the displaced convection, which could explain the sudden shift over land (and thus the weaker runs.)

[Blown Away]

I think the last runs may have initialized the system a bit farther south than it actually is due to the displaced convection, which could explain the sudden shift over land (and thus the weaker runs.)

Most of the day all the convection was south of the LLC... LLC mostly and still naked...

[AutoPenalti]

The rapid deepening looks about right the upper level jet would open up the outflow.Don't know about that MU shear model time will tell.

Can you explain this part a bit further?

[hohnywx]

hard to go against the GFS and EURO on their latest run. The trend has been west and weak for a few runs now...

CMC also follows the EURO and GFS...so some of the bigger boys

Yup...let's forget that the Euro had a major hurricane at 0z

[SFLcane]

Tightly clustered 00z track models

[TheStormExpert]

00z Track Guidance with GFS Ensembles



00z Intensity Guidance

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS Ensembles:

[GeneratorPower]

Wow. SouthEast FL in the crosshairs. Tight clustering too.

[toad strangler]

Wow. SouthEast FL in the crosshairs. Tight clustering too.

The high mountains of PR and Hispaniola are the biggest question as far as track goes. Will whatever Erika can muster be far enough north of the cheese grater to proceed unimpeded by terra firm before approaching the far SE US.

It has been surprising that there has not been too much windshield wiping on the models with this one. Perhaps this is because the cyclone is moving so fast and handled better because of this.
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[jlauderdal]

18Z GFS Ensembles:

Not surprising considering the setup..lets see what the euro and ukmet do with it next run..if there is agreement on track then watch out and hope the intensity stays in check

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