ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#541 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:08 pm

AJC3 wrote:
sfwx wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...

...UNCERTAIN FORECAST SUN-TUE HINGES ON EVOLUTION OF T.S. "ERIKA"...

WE`RE STILL IN THE DAY 5+ TIME RANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS ARE QUITE LOW...HOWEVER THE STRONGER H50 RIDGE JUST TO OUR
EAST INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ECFL DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUCH
THAT IMPACTS OF SOME SORT WILL BE FELT LOCALLY.

FORECAST POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW...POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING
"ERIKA" FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...ULRICH


You're taking your chances if you listen to that guy.


No bashing pro mets! :D
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#542 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:10 pm

TS Erika racing west without any brakes...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 252045
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...ERIKA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TOMORROW NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 52.8W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#543 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:10 pm

When does the first G-IV flight take place? That would help a lot in narrowing things down.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#544 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm pretty sure Erika's winds will be somewhere between 15kts and 90kts when it reaches near S. Florida. I hope to narrow that down in the coming days...


how confident are you in a track near South Florida if I may ask?
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#545 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:18 pm

GFDL is east of Florida, but it was way east with Danny.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:
Contact srainhoutx

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#546 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:21 pm

AJC3 wrote:
sfwx wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...

...UNCERTAIN FORECAST SUN-TUE HINGES ON EVOLUTION OF T.S. "ERIKA"...

WE`RE STILL IN THE DAY 5+ TIME RANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS ARE QUITE LOW...HOWEVER THE STRONGER H50 RIDGE JUST TO OUR
EAST INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ECFL DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUCH
THAT IMPACTS OF SOME SORT WILL BE FELT LOCALLY.

FORECAST POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW...POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING
"ERIKA" FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...ULRICH


You're taking your chances if you listen to that guy.


:D
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#547 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:25 pm

AJC3 wrote:
sfwx wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...

...UNCERTAIN FORECAST SUN-TUE HINGES ON EVOLUTION OF T.S. "ERIKA"...

WE`RE STILL IN THE DAY 5+ TIME RANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS ARE QUITE LOW...HOWEVER THE STRONGER H50 RIDGE JUST TO OUR
EAST INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ECFL DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUCH
THAT IMPACTS OF SOME SORT WILL BE FELT LOCALLY.

FORECAST POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW...POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING
"ERIKA" FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...ULRICH


You're taking your chances if you listen to that guy.


:lol: But honestly the fact that you're mentioning it is pretty unnerving even if it becomes nothing its something we should all keep an eye on along the Florida coast but first the Bahamas need to watch the progress of Erika

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#548 Postby ozonepete » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm pretty sure Erika's winds will be somewhere between 15kts and 90kts when it reaches near S. Florida. I hope to narrow that down in the coming days...


There you go, sticking your neck out again. :wink: :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#549 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:30 pm

tolakram wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
sfwx wrote:
FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...ULRICH


You're taking your chances if you listen to that guy.


No bashing pro mets! :D


Been told he's friend with Godzilla El Niño, can't be trusted!
0 likes   
Top
tatertawt24
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 309
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:57 pm

#550 Postby tatertawt24 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:32 pm

When was the last time Florida was hit by a tropical storm? Fay?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1179
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re:

#551 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:33 pm

tatertawt24 wrote:When was the last time Florida was hit by a tropical storm? Fay?


Andrea 2013.
0 likes   
Top
emeraldislenc
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm
Location: Emerald Isle NC

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#552 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:47 pm

What the chances it could become a stronger hurricane as it nears Florida? :flag:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#553 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:47 pm

New weather post with track and all, will have a Facebook live video starting at 8:30 if yall want to check it out. I agree with wxman...this is going to be a weak wave or maybe a cat 2 as it approaches. More on my facebook page and twitter pages, if yall want to check it out. Facebook live at 8:30 E

Thanks!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Weatherboy1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1189
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL

#554 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:55 pm

There is already a Category 1 hype-I-cane on the local news. Lol. But in a lol seriousness, if Erika looks better by this time tomorrow and is a higher end TS, Then I'm going to get concerned. Right now, there is still a chance of Danny-style "poof-ing." As always, listen to the experts! :)
0 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re:

#555 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:58 pm

deltadog03 wrote:New weather post with track and all, will have a Facebook live video starting at 8:30 if yall want to check it out. I agree with wxman...this is going to be a weak wave or maybe a cat 2 as it approaches. More on my facebook page and twitter pages, if yall want to check it out. Facebook live at 8:30 E

Thanks!

That's a very big margin of error.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
TheStormExpert

#556 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:03 pm

Last visible of the day.

Image
0 likes   
Top
curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1122
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:
Contact curtadams

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#557 Postby curtadams » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:04 pm

40 mph wind + 20 mph speed = barely closed, or not at all depending on the rounding. Not much different from a cusp. The last blowup of convection is starting to look like a very strong wave that's *almost" a TS more than a TS (the feeder from the south just looks like a triangular wave).
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#558 Postby ozonepete » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:05 pm

AJC3 wrote:
sfwx wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...

...UNCERTAIN FORECAST SUN-TUE HINGES ON EVOLUTION OF T.S. "ERIKA"...

WE`RE STILL IN THE DAY 5+ TIME RANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS ARE QUITE LOW...HOWEVER THE STRONGER H50 RIDGE JUST TO OUR
EAST INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ECFL DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUCH
THAT IMPACTS OF SOME SORT WILL BE FELT LOCALLY.

FORECAST POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW...POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING
"ERIKA" FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...ULRICH


You're taking your chances if you listen to that guy.


lol yeah, he's too sarcastic to be taken seriously... :lol:
0 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

#559 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:08 pm

Current Wind Shear. :darrow:

Image

Image
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#560 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:11 pm

AJC3 wrote:
sfwx wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...

...UNCERTAIN FORECAST SUN-TUE HINGES ON EVOLUTION OF T.S. "ERIKA"...

WE`RE STILL IN THE DAY 5+ TIME RANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS ARE QUITE LOW...HOWEVER THE STRONGER H50 RIDGE JUST TO OUR
EAST INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ECFL DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUCH
THAT IMPACTS OF SOME SORT WILL BE FELT LOCALLY.

FORECAST POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW...POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING
"ERIKA" FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...ULRICH


You're taking your chances if you listen to that guy.

My recommendation would be to skip the mlb discussions and focus on the other offices in florida..8-)

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests