ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#661 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:48 pm

I guess instant weather maps is not updating but you may follow the run on tropical tidbits:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=658
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5300
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#662 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:49 pm

I've been watching that big upper level low north of the great lakes with all the shortwaves and troughs.
One of those troughs could dig and pick up Erika before she reaches Florida if the timing was right.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#663 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:51 pm

18Z GFS

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#664 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:52 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#665 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:53 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2108
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#666 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:57 pm

Hmm so far over Puerto Rico and into (or just north of Hispaniola) and weaksauce.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#667 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:58 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#668 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:58 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#669 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:03 pm

So far this run is very very close to the previous run, maybe a little slower.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#670 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:09 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#671 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:11 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#672 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:14 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#673 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:16 pm

Vorticity up the east coast this run.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#674 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:19 pm

Shear

Image

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#675 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:20 pm

The fact the GFS and Euro do close to nil in their latest runs can't be ignored. I'm actually surprised they went with cane in forecast at all. Especially with the forecast path.
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#676 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:23 pm

I'm surprised as well they went with a hurricane. How do you factor that in to your forecast grids which are based off of GFS and Euro which show an open wave?
0 likes   
Top
NCSTORMMAN

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#677 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:24 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:I'm surprised as well they went with a hurricane. How do you factor that in to your forecast grids which are based off of GFS and Euro which show an open wave?


I think they might think new data and a few other things will change what the models are seeing.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#678 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:24 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:I'm surprised as well they went with a hurricane. How do you factor that in to your forecast grids which are based off of GFS and Euro which show an open wave?


My guess is that they are giving some credibility to the HWRF which performed quite well with Danny in regards to intensity.

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#679 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:26 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:I'm surprised as well they went with a hurricane. How do you factor that in to your forecast grids which are based off of GFS and Euro which show an open wave?


My guess is that they are giving some credibility to the HWRF which performed quite well with Danny in regards to intensity.

SFT

I seriously feel like the HWRF just had a lucky guess with Danny. IMHO this will not amount to much more than what it currently is.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#680 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:29 pm

156 off the west coast of Florida again.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests