ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Weatherboy1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1189
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#521 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:37 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:I think the track will nudge a hair southwest due to the Euro and GFS from 12z. The intensity though is a whole different ballgame. That is the tricky part. With the ridge the Euro and GFS are showing I don't see anyway that FL doesn't get something from this. The big question is what???

SFT


The TVCN is over Andros Island now and the NHC seems to follow it closely. So I would guess a Southwest adjustment also.


Intensity is such a tough call here. You have models that are forecasting a Cat 3 hurricane ... and you have models that are forecasting Erikia to degenerate to a wave. Meanwhile, given forward speed and the shift west in models, you can bet the "cone of death" will be kissing or over a portion of Florida as of 5 p.m. That, in turn, means media hype is about to shift into overdrive. LOL. Don't envy the NHC here, because this could get a lot stronger and pose a real threat or it could fall apart. Tough couple of days for sure.

Just the opinion of a semi-educate amateur. Always listen to the experts!
0 likes   
Top
OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1731
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:
Contact OuterBanker

#522 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:45 pm

I don't know. Looks to me that the the cdo is south and east of the llc. To me the center seems to be right on target. Lots more convection that 11am, was ready to call it. But, someone hit her with the paddles.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#523 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:52 pm

Let the SFL media hype machine commence: :eek:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#524 Postby MGC » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:52 pm

Is that Erika???????.....MGC
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#525 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:54 pm

Based on the SFMR winds, I see no reason to change the current intensity.
0 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

#526 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:54 pm

Ahahahahahaa I'm laughing so hard.

*proceeds quietly to boarding up*
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3383
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:
Contact tropicwatch

#527 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:54 pm

Kind of surprised they lowered the winds to 40.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Top
User avatar
sfwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 371
Age: 59
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:53 pm
Location: Rural St. Lucie County, Fl

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#528 Postby sfwx » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:54 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...

...UNCERTAIN FORECAST SUN-TUE HINGES ON EVOLUTION OF T.S. "ERIKA"...

WE`RE STILL IN THE DAY 5+ TIME RANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS ARE QUITE LOW...HOWEVER THE STRONGER H50 RIDGE JUST TO OUR
EAST INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ECFL DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUCH
THAT IMPACTS OF SOME SORT WILL BE FELT LOCALLY.

FORECAST POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW...POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING
"ERIKA" FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...ULRICH
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#529 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:55 pm

I'm pretty sure Erika's winds will be somewhere between 15kts and 90kts when it reaches near S. Florida. I hope to narrow that down in the coming days...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#530 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Based on the SFMR winds, I see no reason to change the current intensity.


In most cases, the SFMR (surface) winds were a good bit higher than FL winds. Much of that was due to squalls affecting the signal. And remember, those SFMR winds are not 1 minute average winds, they're basically gusts (10 sec). I think 35kts looks good (at most).
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1542
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#531 Postby bahamaswx » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:57 pm

Should I start planning my hurricane party now?
0 likes   
Top
JPmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1070
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#532 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm pretty sure Erika's winds will be somewhere between 15kts and 90kts when it reaches near S. Florida. I hope to narrow that down in the coming days...


and that sums up the last 27 pages well.. it could be a cool tropical breeze with occasional showers OR a raging Cat 2/3. I for one do not want to be the guy who is left with one can of tuna and a bottle of water wondering why I didn't stop by the store a few days earlier.
0 likes   
Top
tatertawt24
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 309
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:57 pm

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#533 Postby tatertawt24 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:01 pm

It's kind of sad how upset I am that I no longer have The Weather Channel, in case Ericka actually does strike somewhere in the US. :lol: I know I can watch it online, but it's just not the same as having it on my TV in the background in my room, like the good ol' days in 2008. <3
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#534 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:04 pm

Showing good signs of development now IMO. Would opt for higher windspeeds at end of run.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#535 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:05 pm

If the 12z Euro showed something more than a TS, that 5 day intensity would have been much higher IMO.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#536 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:06 pm

NWS out of New Orleans is keeping an eye on Erika.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NORMAL SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. WITH THE
MOISTURE INCREASE WE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TROPICS AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA. 13/MH
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#537 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:06 pm

Warning..warning Will Robinson...S Florida now in the 5 day NHC cone..LOL! Watch store shelves be completely picked over now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#538 Postby fci » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm pretty sure Erika's winds will be somewhere between 15kts and 90kts when it reaches near S. Florida. I hope to narrow that down in the coming days...


Which is why we love wxman here on S2K!!! :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
Top
User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3999
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:
Contact AJC3

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#539 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:06 pm

sfwx wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...

...UNCERTAIN FORECAST SUN-TUE HINGES ON EVOLUTION OF T.S. "ERIKA"...

WE`RE STILL IN THE DAY 5+ TIME RANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS ARE QUITE LOW...HOWEVER THE STRONGER H50 RIDGE JUST TO OUR
EAST INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ECFL DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUCH
THAT IMPACTS OF SOME SORT WILL BE FELT LOCALLY.

FORECAST POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW...POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING
"ERIKA" FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...ULRICH


You're taking your chances if you listen to that guy.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#540 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:08 pm

Blown Away wrote:If the 12z Euro showed something more than a TS, that 5 day intensity would have been much higher IMO.


Max Mayfield said on channel 10 news that the reason the euro doesn't develop Erika is because it forecast her to move over Hispanola.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests