ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Bocadude85]

Another look at the 18Z guidance:

Looks like Nassau is in the bullseye.

[JPmia]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Yeah I'd say that is pretty good consensus on FL.

[YoshiMike]

Well hello florida

[JPmia]

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[stormlover2013]

heck next run for models might show it in California lol

[HURRICANELONNY]

First it has to survive. Second the NHC track is in the middle and off the Florida coast. Not that it means much cause track and intensity will change. I'm keeping an eye on Erika but not really worried yet.

[ROCK]

I think she is caught up in the easterlies with movement at 21knts as WXMN said. Hard to stay stacked with that movement and do anything big...she needs to slow down. Something to watch for. I suspect these models will trend more west over the next few runs, JMO...

[PTrackerLA]

Pro mets or anyone else, ever seen hurricane models drastically outperform the globals (GFS/EURO) like in a situation like this? I would think the globals would be better at forecasting whether an environment is favorable or not. I just remember the GFS and EURO being all over Sandy impacting the NE about 7 days out (as a huge storm,) seems it would be unprecedented for them not to be picking up on a huge threat to say Florida in less than that time and in 2015.

[BobHarlem]

I've noticed a few time in the past where the models disagreeed or flip flopped sometimes you'd get the situation where the low level center spits off in one direction, while the Mid Level Convection goes in the other (and ending up with a disorganized mess). Not sure this will happen here, but it's a possibility. This happened with Debby in 2012 and Karen in 2013.

[ronjon]

Yes I was referring to the BAM models

Also have the 12z ECM and GEM with the system into the NE Gulf.

yes even the dynamical models such as HWRF and GFDL have shifted west from their runs 12 hrs ago. Definitely a westward trend, probably related to the system staying weaker longer.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS Ensembles:

[Raebie]

Where did Florida disappear to?

12Z GFS Ensembles:

[WeatherEmperor]

And now we wait for the 18z Gfs. Should start in less than 20 minutes

[Hurricaneman]

Where did Florida disappear to?

12Z GFS Ensembles:

http://i.imgur.com/Kdk4tCs.png

The merry old land of OZ But this is a pretty good concensus of the models that the Florida Penninsula may have to watch out as WXMAN57 said in another thread it could be a light breeze or a major hurricane depending on shear and or dry air but personally am leaning towards the upper end of that thinking there may be favorable conditions north of Puerto Rico all the way to Florida

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[Blown Away]

12z HWRF: (Tracked over land, would have been stronger IMO)

12z GFDL:

[ROCK]

FIM Model which is experimental. this is a week from now. Misses the trof. Some where in the EGOM...FWIW


http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=fim9_jet:&runtime=2015082500&plot_type=wind_10m&fcst=210&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=244&adtfn=0

[Bocadude85]

The GFS, Euro and FIM model all track this over Hispaniola. I'm wondering if Erika will miss to the north or plow right into it.

[gatorcane]

Not sure why but the 18Z GFS run is delayed...

[Kohlecane]

Not sure why but the 18Z GFS run is delayed...

Hopefully it's for the good..

[PTrackerLA]

24 hrs up to 1009, identical to 12z and vorticity weakening rapidly...