ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[chaser1]

that ridge is strong man very strong, if the tough doesn't pick it up doesn't matter how strong the storm is its about the trough, same thing with IKE it was going to be a fish its going to get picked up by the trough and etc and it never did

Face palm and then smh till it falls off.

Okay, so now i'm completely dizzy LOL... and furthermore after the 12Z forecasts, feel that i'm no more knowledgeable for the updated forecasts.

At the moment we have a fairly weak tropical storm that continues to race westward (perhaps WNW), yet seemingly to be at a point where overall conditions would appear to become a bit more favorable after about 48 hours assuming that Erika doesnt crash into land and become disrupted that way.

We have models that seem to flip flop like a landed "gill caught" Yellow Tail, because quite frankly Erika continues to pulsate, though seemingly not yet on "life-support".

It would appear that increased ridging off the Southeast Conus is forecast over the near to mid term, and HWRF, GFS, and the EURO appear to be becoming more aligned with (take your pick) a tropical wave or a hurricane to be in the general vicinity of the Western Bahamas in approx. 126 hours.

From all that, my guess is..... "I don't know", lol. I'll say this much though, while i'm not betting on what Erika is gonna look like in 24-48 hours, "IF" she's truly getting her act together at that time and moving on a WNW heading, than I might well be planning on being down at the Commercial Blvd. pier there in S. Florida 2 days later and with a margarita in my hand - right after I take stock of my mom's Miami house storm shutters!

What is tricky here, is that I think many here (myself included) begin looking at this stuff so over focused with time, that analysis itself becomes jaded by "past performance"... i.e.: past storms, past seasons, past conditions. I think i'm just gonna sit back for a day or two and stop thinking, just watch

[NCSTORMMAN]

I predict the next GFS model run will show more development.

[OuterBanker]

Hoooray! The Euro flopped again. Now I can stop taking my anti anxiety pills.

[gatorcane]

possibly unfavorable low level winds? Too many people here only look at upper level winds. If the low level winds are not strongly convergence, you're not getting development no matter how favorable the upper levels are

Hard to believe a storm won't strengthen on that path the Euro shows with upper ridging building into the Bahamas and SE United States at the end. The Euro never used to be this inconsistent.

The UKMET, HWRF, and NAVGEM are very bullish so split camp with the models though hard to go against the GFS and ECMWF.

[cycloneye]

Red Flag

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 1m1 minute ago
Off so have no clue what's going on at work. But I know this model disparity is a huge red flag

What does that mean?

I think is about the Euro runs 00z and 12z being different.

[wxman57]

We're measuring a 5-hr movement of 300 deg at 21 kts. Hard to get going when it's moving so fast.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hard to go against the gfs, euro, and even cmc when none are showing not much of any development. Like big b mentioned last page if this even makes it into the gulf still has to contend with copious amounts of shear that will tear it apart, just like the euro is showing.

[tolakram]

I really think it's a pattern thing, maybe a flip. For years the models where tested with a certain set of conditions in the Atlantic, now those conditions have changed to a much drier and more stable environment but may be flipping back.



I won't try to get into the heads of the model programmers but in the end, testing is only as good as the data. If we are done with the Atlantic dry spell there may be a period of time where the models can't handle the changing conditions.

Just my opinion with a nice chart but no real idea why models are having such a hard time of it in the Atlantic for the last few years.

[Hammy]

The UKMET, HWRF, and NAVGEM are very bullish so split camp with the models though hard to go against the GFS and ECMWF.

I'd be willing to bet against the GFS considering it seems to under-develop everything that isn't already a hurricane (while over-developing things that don't yet exist).

HWRF has as good a track record this year and last as the Euro as well (and the UKMET from what other's have posted) so you have two models agreeing with one bad model (NAVGEM) and the Euro agreeing with another bad model (GFS). May as well throw darts at this point.

As far as the Euro is concerned, it's worth noting that it still has an organized system in the Gulf, which still opens the possibility for a stronger system that what's shown. And track-wise, how many are accurate that far out?

Either way I think the model flipping could also be a result of incomplete data going into the models, so the 0z runs should be interesting once the planes have been out and gathered much better information.

[BucMan2]

Some of the 18Z have trended west into NE gulf and Panhandle- trend or one run?

[wxman57]

Which 18Z models are you referring to?

[boca]

He's probably referring to the Bam models

[Frank2]

Lots of dust to the west and north of the system - it'll be interesting to see what recon finds...

[Steve H.]

I agree the flag should be thrown. Going from a deep hurricane to nada in just one run is nutz. Then again I was wrong with Danny. Just doesn't seem right.

[BucMan2]

Yes I was referring to the BAM models

[tailgater]

Shear forecast looks to keep anything moving west of 85w very sheared for the next 160 hrs +


162 hr

[Dean4Storms]

Yes I was referring to the BAM models

Also have the 12z ECM and GEM with the system into the NE Gulf.

[Evil Jeremy]

Yes I was referring to the BAM models

Some advice for using the BAMs for hurricane tracking:

Don't.

[Hurricaneman]

Here's what I do and its pretty similar to the NHC

For intensity I look at the dynamical models and take the average of them all

For track I take all the models and use the mean of them all so based on that I agree with the NHC right now if not maybe 10kts higher at peak

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

Another look at the 18Z guidance: