ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[stormlover2013]

that ridge is strong man very strong, if the tough doesn't pick it up doesn't matter how strong the storm is its about the trough, same thing with IKE it was going to be a fish its going to get picked up by the trough and etc and it never did

[CourierPR]

that ridge is strong man very strong, if the tough doesn't pick it up doesn't matter how strong the storm is its about the trough, same thing with IKE it was going to be a fish its going to get picked up by the trough and etc and it never did

So if the ridge is very strong, as you describe, is it all about the trough or the ridge?

[rockyman]

12z Euro looks to bring a weak system up the eastern side of the Gulf.

[NCSTORMMAN]

that ridge is strong man very strong, if the tough doesn't pick it up doesn't matter how strong the storm is its about the trough, same thing with IKE it was going to be a fish its going to get picked up by the trough and etc and it never did

Face palm and then smh till it falls off.

[SouthFLTropics]

despite a favorable upper environment, EC shows nothing more than a very weak wave for Florida

If the environment is favorable what is the models seeing that is preventing development? What are we missing here?

SFT

[stormlover2013]

yeah the ridge will break down, depends on how strong the trough is and etc, but models struggle during this time of the year with troughs in august and September

[BucMan2]

Quick question: If the CMC is basically worthless why is it still used?

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks to send Erika into Appilachicola around 168 hours.



SFT

[Alyono]

badly sheared TD/weak TS into Florida Big Bend

[NCSTORMMAN]

despite a favorable upper environment, EC shows nothing more than a very weak wave for Florida

If the environment is favorable what is the models seeing that is preventing development? What are we missing here?

SFT

That the models are not to be trusted. This storm actual feels like it has the potential to get pretty strong to me. I think the models are thinking that the shear will disrupt Erika before it gets to the Bahamas and it never recovers. I personally think it will be strong enough and large enough to maintain itself to the Bahamas but we shall see.

[Alyono]

possibly unfavorable low level winds? Too many people here only look at upper level winds. If the low level winds are not strongly convergence, you're not getting development no matter how favorable the upper levels are

[BigB0882]

Euro may keep it weak because they may see tons of shear in the Gulf. I saw a map yesterday that showed huge shear in the Gulf during the period when the storm would enter if it makes it there. Shear forecasts are extremely unreliable so far out, however.

What I take from this is a westward trend and intensity is very much to be determined.

[WeatherEmperor]

Can somebody post the 18z intensity guidance?

[ROCK]

EURO and GFS agree wow....now we see which one goes out on its own and shows a totally different scenario next run. !8Z GFS 0Z GFS up next and the 0Z EURO at 1:30am CST...

[PTrackerLA]

No point getting worked up over the Euro runs, it's as consistent as the stock market.

[Bocadude85]

Perhaps land interaction plays a role in the Euro's failure to stregthen the system.

[Blown Away]

18z...

[cycloneye]

Red Flag

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 1m1 minute ago
Off so have no clue what's going on at work. But I know this model disparity is a huge red flag

[Blown Away]

Red Flag

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 1m1 minute ago
Off so have no clue what's going on at work. But I know this model disparity is a huge red flag

What does that mean?

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET, east of coast of Florida by hour 144: