ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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#581 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:10 pm

48 hours Euro

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#582 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:11 pm

Looking a bit better by hour 72

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#583 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:13 pm

So far, Euro run is further south/weaker.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#584 Postby blp » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:13 pm

Weaker is further west. Look what happened on the HWRF. No surprise so far. Let's see in the Bahamas.
Last edited by blp on Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#585 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:14 pm

open wave for sure at 69 hours
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#586 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:14 pm

BobHarlem wrote:So far, Euro run is further south/weaker.


Very similar to the HWRF run through 72 hours...

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#587 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:18 pm

Starting to look like the 00z Euro run was a fluke, here we go again...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#588 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:19 pm

Nothing consistent on the Euro as compared to today's 00z run. Totally different so far. Was this morning a fluke? Need to see a trend. With the Euro and the GFS both not showing much it is really difficult to go against them.

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Re: Re:

#589 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:20 pm

NCSTORMMAN wrote:Very similar to Danny. Euro and GFS showed no intensification and none happened. Let us see more of the run.


Both models missed Danny's intensity by quite alot, and at this point in Danny's existence the GFS had it as a depression, as it does here, and ended up having Danny consistently weaker than what actually happened.

Alyono wrote:not really a TC at 51 hours. It is following the MU so far


Haven't the last several days of runs been dissipating this prior to reintensification?
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Re: Re:

#590 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:22 pm

Hammy wrote:
NCSTORMMAN wrote:Very similar to Danny. Euro and GFS showed no intensification and none happened. Let us see more of the run.


Both models missed Danny's intensity by quite alot, and at this point in Danny's existence the GFS had it as a depression, as it does here, and ended up having Danny consistently weaker than what actually happened.

Alyono wrote:not really a TC at 51 hours. It is following the MU so far


Haven't the last several days of runs been dissipating this prior to reintensification?


Actually when the storm was near the same position as Erika is the GFS and Euro both showed the storm either extremely weak or dying off. Path of the storm was different with the Euro winning that one.
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#591 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:23 pm

12z Euro Looks very weak and possibly GOM bound at 114 hours on weatherbell...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#592 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:25 pm

Euro is similar to yesterday's 12Z run. I think the earlier one (0z) was a fluke based on what Erika is doing now.
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Re: Re:

#593 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:26 pm

NCSTORMMAN wrote:Actually when the storm was near the same position as Erika is the GFS and Euro both showed the storm either extremely weak or dying off. Path of the storm was different with the Euro winning that one.


Better to go by how the models handle things by their intensity--when Danny was in Erika's location it was already under much stronger shear and weakening would've been a foregone conclusion by pretty much any model other than CMC.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#594 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:26 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Euro is similar to yesterday's 12Z run. I think the earlier one (0z) was a fluke based on what Erika is doing now.


Looks like I was right. I am wondering where I go to collect on winning the prediction game? lol j/k models are not to be trusted this year and it seems even worse than in the past. I actually believe the Euro will be wrong. I think it will strengthen into a hurricane and go out to sea but staying weak is likely too.
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Re: Re:

#595 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:27 pm

Hammy wrote:
NCSTORMMAN wrote:Actually when the storm was near the same position as Erika is the GFS and Euro both showed the storm either extremely weak or dying off. Path of the storm was different with the Euro winning that one.


Better to go by how the models handle things by their intensity--when Danny was in Erika's location it was already under much stronger shear and weakening would've been a foregone conclusion by pretty much any model other than CMC.


That is true. Thing is I think when both the Euro and GFS agree on something it is hard to disagree with them. Track can change but if they both show weakening it will more than likely happen.
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#596 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:27 pm

despite a favorable upper environment, EC shows nothing more than a very weak wave for Florida
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#597 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:28 pm

it can't go out to sea if the trough doesn't pick it up NC, its about the trough
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#598 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:28 pm

Even the Canadian shows little intensification
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#599 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:29 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:it can't go out to sea if the trough doesn't pick it up NC, its about the trough


It will be a fish if it gets strong and it will die off if it stays weak. Only way it hits the US as a hurricane is staying between those two variables.
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#600 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:30 pm

GFS and EURO showing similar solutions, with a disturbance/wave impacting Florida. Two model camps unified for once ;)
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