ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Hurricaneman]

UKMET just east of Florida as a rapidly intensifying intense cane

That right there is cause for concern when the UKMET is forecasting a strong hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Siker]

UKMET just east of Florida as a rapidly intensifying intense cane

Hey Alyono, where do you pull UKMET data from this early?

[PTrackerLA]

12z HWRF looks faster, weaker and farther south through 33hrs...

[Bocadude85]

UKMET just east of Florida as a rapidly intensifying intense cane

Thats a huge shift west from the 0z run last night.

[BigB0882]

The UKMET ends up near the East coast of Florida but what direction is it moving?

[Alyono]

UKMET just east of Florida as a rapidly intensifying intense cane

Hey Alyono, where do you pull UKMET data from this early?

my e-mail

[gatorcane]

UKMET just east of Florida as a rapidly intensifying intense cane

Hey Alyono, where do you pull UKMET data from this early?

my e-mail

[Siker]

UKMET just east of Florida as a rapidly intensifying intense cane

Hey Alyono, where do you pull UKMET data from this early?

my e-mail

Lol, the best model site.

[PTrackerLA]

See 12z UKMET here. Looks like it would come close to making landfall somewhere along mid Florida coast...

[AdamFirst]

UKMET just east of Florida as a rapidly intensifying intense cane

Hey Alyono, where do you pull UKMET data from this early?

my e-mail

Priveliges of a promet

[jlauderdal]

Any deviation in the Euro especially if the ridge extends 50 to 100 miles farther west and you get a 940< hurricane in the Florida Penninsula and thats not good so we'll see what it looks like by the Thursday-Friday timeframe

lets get realistic about that 940 intensity prediction..thanks..

I dont personally think its going to be that strong but its something to keep an eye on as the intensity models and the NHC have a hurricane in that general area of the Bahamas heading WNW

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

it would appear if it can make it into the se bahamas in one piece with a closed circ it should develop..conditions look favorable but that is a little too far out for my tastes based on the modeling we have seen the last few years...alonyo is on to something with this wave idea then regeneration....im sure he is sticking closely to his favorite model (MU)

[Blown Away]

The whole model group could just continue westward into the GOM... It's happened before...

[tolakram]

HWRF disorganized through 39 hours.

[BigB0882]

Is it just my eyes or does the TVCN seem to bend back more to the west at the end of the run? I know the NHC follows that one closely.

[PTrackerLA]

Much further south though. I have a feeling the end result of HWRF will get some folks attention...

[Steve]

Erika is definitely getting interesting. There are a wide range of intensity possibilities at the end of the current runs. Looks like the general track consensus of everything legit on SFWMD's Spaghetti plot is Bahamian Kingdom/South Florida at the end of this week (5-7 days). That's all well within my 2015 hot zone. But what happens after? Weak storm at that point (possibly strengthening) into the SE Gulf and up into the Panhandle or Big Bend? Stronger storm just offshore exploding off the GA Coast in that curved pocket of the ocean south of North Carolina? Another Danny collapse? It's gong to be pretty exciting to watch the next few days as we have a wide range of not much to a potential major trapped under a high. The tougher to predict storms are the best storms to track IMHO. Looking forward to the end of the GFS run and the ECMWF 12z output since the NHC is considering them more realistic as of the 11am AST Discussion.

[Steve]

...through 10 days, GFS has it off the FL/GA Coast, heading off ENE and then it appears it wants to loop it back. We'll have to wait for a few more days to see. That's a trapped pattern.

[Tireman4]

UKMET just east of Florida as a rapidly intensifying intense cane

Hey Alyono, where do you pull UKMET data from this early?

my e-mail

Hardy Har Har....Wxman 57 rubbing off on you? LOL

[gatorcane]

The 12Z NAVGEM:

[DESTRUCTION5]

The 12Z NAVGEM:

Thats one way to make a Floridian spit on thier monitor. Good thing its the NOGAPS..