ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 78, decent vorticity north of Hispaniola

[Alyono]

MU insists this becomes a wave

[NCSTORMMAN]

MU insists this becomes a wave

It will be as the MU says it shall.

[PTrackerLA]

Once again GFS vs Euro . I'll say this if the 12z Euro totally abandons it's major hurricane from last night I won't be looking at it the same way anymore .

[Alyono]

Once again GFS vs Euro . I'll say this if the 12z Euro totally abandons it's major hurricane from last night I won't be looking at it the same way anymore .

keep in mine, the EC has next to nothing for the past 2-3 runs before last nights fantasy run

[SouthFLTropics]

114 hours...original vort into South Florida with a small piece split off and left behind in the Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

Close-up of the 500MB ridge strength on the 12Z GFS at 126 hours. That looks strong enough to send a system that were deeper into Florida but it would be a close-call, perhaps just east of Florida. You can see 98L's vort SE of Florida:

[Bocadude85]

Close-up of the 500MB ridge strength on the 12Z GFS at 126 hours. That looks strong enough to send a system that were deeper into Florida but it would be a close-call, perhaps just east of Florida. You can see 98L's vort SE of Florida:

144 hours that vort moves into Palm Beach County.

[chaser1]

Once again GFS vs Euro . I'll say this if the 12z Euro totally abandons it's major hurricane from last night I won't be looking at it the same way anymore .

keep in mine, the EC has next to nothing for the past 2-3 runs before last nights fantasy run

Very true, and in fact i'm assuming the EURO will be at minimum a good deal less bullish for its 12Z run. Even still, that won't necessarily be indicative of Erika's final outcome, nor does that even suggest to me greater or lessor model accuracy then the GFS. For the moment, both are still grasping to catch a firefly in the night that is only illuminating some of the time. Beyond viewing how the global models update forecast large scale synoptic features to evolve, I cant see how they are yet likely to properly forecast Erika until it becomes better established or dissipates... whichever occurs.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 138...Vort from split off piece of Erika just off shore...At hour 144 it comes ashore near Palm Beach County

[Evil Jeremy]

MU insists this becomes a wave

It will be as the MU says it shall.

It's a theoretical projection, not fact. Don't say stuff like that.

Vorticity looks weaker on the 12z GFS than it did in the previous run at the timeframe Gatorcane posted. EURO in little over an hour now to drive us mad.

Through 162 hours, riding up the Florida east coast, but a bit more in land than the 06z run.

[Hurricaneman]

Any deviation in the Euro especially if the ridge extends 50 to 100 miles farther west and you get a 940< hurricane in the Florida Penninsula and thats not good so we'll see what it looks like by the Thursday-Friday timeframe

[SouthFLTropics]

12z HWRF is running

[jlauderdal]

Any deviation in the Euro especially if the ridge extends 50 to 100 miles farther west and you get a 940< hurricane in the Florida Penninsula and thats not good so we'll see what it looks like by the Thursday-Friday timeframe

lets get realistic about that 940 intensity prediction..thanks..

[BucMan2]

Hurricane man, your point is well taken no matter how strong the storm is. These models are struggling right now as they are trying to predict something that is still in it's beginning stages.

[Alyono]

the MU appears to be ignoring a positive Kelvin Wave...

[Hurricaneman]

Any deviation in the Euro especially if the ridge extends 50 to 100 miles farther west and you get a 940< hurricane in the Florida Penninsula and thats not good so we'll see what it looks like by the Thursday-Friday timeframe

lets get realistic about that 940 intensity prediction..thanks..

I dont personally think its going to be that strong but its something to keep an eye on as the intensity models and the NHC have a hurricane in that general area of the Bahamas heading WNW

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[blp]

Good explanation posted earlier by Levi Cowan
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
Forecast differences with #Erika: GFS has decoupled vortex between surface and 500mb. ECMWF with 4D-var init shows no such structure.

[Bocadude85]

12z HWRF is running

Weaker than the 6z run so far.

[Alyono]

UKMET just east of Florida as a rapidly intensifying intense cane