ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[NCSTORMMAN]

I'm thinking it's almost time to sing that Queen song "Another one bites the dust" here. LOL

I second that.

[Blown Away]

IMO, the longer Erika takes to get her act together the more west that track will go...

[Weatherlover12]

I'm thinking it's almost time to sing that Queen song "Another one bites the dust" here. LOL

Ok. Stop!
Stop writing off storms.. Yes it looks bad this morning but Idk if you looked at the forecast but it said that Erika wouldn't form much until the Bahamas. We need to wait and see
You remember how Danny tricked you all at the beginning and looked what happened?
Went from TS to Cat 3 so that is evidence right there

[Bocadude85]

Will be interesting to see if recon can even close of a circulation let alone find any ts force winds. However I will say that a lot of people were saying Danny was dead the day before he became a hurricane so you never know.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I'm thinking it's almost time to sing that Queen song "Another one bites the dust" here. LOL

Ok. Stop!
Stop writing off storms.. Yes it looks bad this morning but Idk if you looked at the forecast but it said that Erika wouldn't form much until the Bahamas. We need to wait and see
You remember how Danny tricked you all at the beginning and looked what happened?
Went from TS to Cat 3 so that is evidence right there

And he went from category 3 to a wave in a little over 2 days in the same conditions Erika is about to face.

[SouthDadeFish]

Behold, the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season:



Erika needs some convection ASAP to survive. Although even if it does die, regeneration is a possibility later down the road.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, Meteorologist Alyono just mentioned it's a tropical wave now, so I believe him as he has experience and access to information we may not........So I guess we just need to hear it officially posted by the NHC now. I'm assuming they may even issue a special statement shortly mentioning this, followed by a final advisory......Wow, what a strange season. Even the NHC is getting it wrong.............

[NCSTORMMAN]

Behold, the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season:



Erika needs some convection ASAP to survive. Although even if it does die, regeneration is a possibility later down the road.

That shield around the US and now even the Caribbean is MAGICAL lol. I got a message on here from someone saying it was annoying saying magical trough or magical shear. Thing is that it is just so magical how they appear at the right time and sometimes even together.

[tropicwatch]

I think we will see another flare up of convection before Gonzo gets there.

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess we know now though that since it's a wave that it will probably take the carib route and as met wxman mentioned, possibly re-strengthen in the east gulf of mexico. But it will probably maintain a wave status until it gets there..... (this is opinion only of course, nothing more)

[hohnywx]

Well, Meteorologist Alyono just mentioned it's a tropical wave now, so I believe him as he has experience and access to information we may not........So I guess we just need to hear it officially posted by the NHC now. I'm assuming they may even issue a special statement shortly mentioning this, followed by a final advisory......Wow, what a strange season. Even the NHC is getting it wrong.............

Uhhh...it's not a wave. It's still a classified storm. He was just stating his opinion.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The look of a dying storm.

[Dean4Storms]

Come on Peeps, it is a weak TS still developing and moving fairly quickly. It is going to pulse, we're going to see periods where it looks very bad and times where it looks fairly good for several days. It might even swing back and forth between a TW and a weak LLC, but it still has lots of model support down the road and better conditions awaiting!

[Extratropical94]

It's far too early to evaluate or criticize the official forecast from the NHC. We will see if they really got it wrong when Erika has moved out of the tropics, onto land or completely dissipated, none of which she has done yet. And even if she fails to strengthen any further, remember that even the most active seasons can see storms that simply underperform and stay far behind everyone's expectations (2010's Gaston for example).

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, Meteorologist Alyono just mentioned it's a tropical wave now, so I believe him as he has experience and access to information we may not........So I guess we just need to hear it officially posted by the NHC now. I'm assuming they may even issue a special statement shortly mentioning this, followed by a final advisory......Wow, what a strange season. Even the NHC is getting it wrong.............

Uhhh...it's not a wave. It's still a classified storm. He was just stating his opinion.

yes, but he stated it very strongly, hehe...... The thing is, it takes awhile for the NHC to often relay the information to the public which is probably what we are seeing here. They are just waiting a bit longer.

[hohnywx]

Well, Meteorologist Alyono just mentioned it's a tropical wave now, so I believe him as he has experience and access to information we may not........So I guess we just need to hear it officially posted by the NHC now. I'm assuming they may even issue a special statement shortly mentioning this, followed by a final advisory......Wow, what a strange season. Even the NHC is getting it wrong.............

Uhhh...it's not a wave. It's still a classified storm. He was just stating his opinion.

yes, but he stated it very strongly, hehe...... The thing is, it takes awhile for the NHC to often relay the information to the public which is probably what we are seeing here. They are just waiting a bit longer.

NHC is most likely not going to do anything until recon gets in there.

[jlauderdal]

Come on Peeps, it is a weak TS still developing and moving fairly quickly. It is going to pulse, we're going to see periods where it looks very bad and times where it looks fairly good for several days. It might even swing back and forth between a TW and a weak LLC, but it still has lots of model support down the road and better conditions awaiting!

about every 12 hours we get these peaks in frustration..12 hours ago it was frustration because it wasnt named, now frustration because a fast moving system isnt looking so hot...patience people, developing systems dont always ramp up and sometimes they go poof

[SeminoleWind]

IMO its gonna need to slow down some in order to maintain any deeper convection

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Erika Has Formed in the Atlantic; Tropical Storm Watches Issued For Leeward Islands
Published Aug 25 2015 09:42 AM EDT
weather.com
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... ugust-2015

Highlights
•Tropical Storm Erika formed late Monday night in the central Atlantic and is about 840 miles east of the Leeward Islands.
•Tropical storm watches were posted Tuesday morning for parts of the Leeward Islands, and additional watches and or warnings may be required soon.
•Erika is expected to remain a tropical storm and gather strength as it moves quickly to the west.
•The northern Leeward Islands may feel tropical storm-force winds by late Wednesday night into early Thursday.
•Erika may then bring more rain to drought-suffering Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
•Erika's future track and intensity beyond Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands is highly uncertain.


Tropical Storm Erika formed Monday night about 955 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving quickly westward at about 20 mph.

For the next couple of days, Erika will be moving through an environment characterized by a moist air mass, low vertical wind shear and warm water. This should allow some strengthening.

Just like we saw with Danny, Erika will eventually have to battle wind shear and some dry air as it nears the Carribean. This complicates both the intensity and track forecasts.

Due to this fast movement, Erika is already expected to arrive in the northern Leeward islands Wednesday night or early Thursday with tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain, prompting tropical storm watches to be issued early Tuesday morning for Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Aguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Maarten.

This is the second time in less than three days watches have been hoisted in the Leeward Islands, done so this past weekend ahead of Tropical Storm Danny, whose remnants are sliding through the Caribbean ahead of Erika.

Additional watches may be required in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, as Erika may spread rain and wind into those drought-suffering areas Thursday into early Friday.

Beyond that, the forecast has a large amount of uncertainty, due to a potential track over land in the Caribbean and interaction with the aforementioned wind shear.

A stronger Erika may get pulled farther northwest, while a weaker Erika would track farther west and south.

All interests in Hispanola, The Bahamas, Cuba and the southeast United States should continue to monitor the progress of Erika.

[Blown Away]

Some here have high expectations for a forecasted to struggle for a few days 40 mph TS...