ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[NCSTORMMAN]

Not here and not in many years. Models are being fed crap and spit out crap. You want to see a US threat you need to be focusing on China not the tropics.[/quote]

Can you stop already? This is ridiculous.

The mets have stated that they expect it to degenerate and then regenerate in the Bahamas. It can happen. Enough.[/quote]

Not in my opinion and we shall see eh?

[Bocadude85]

Not here and not in many years. Models are being fed crap and spit out crap. You want to see a US threat you need to be focusing on China not the tropics.

Can you stop already? This is ridiculous.

The mets have stated that they expect it to degenerate and then regenerate in the Bahamas. It can happen. Enough.[/quote]

Not in my opinion and we shall see eh?[/quote]

This has nothing to do with models. Post your opinions on Erika in the discussion thread.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Not here and not in many years. Models are being fed crap and spit out crap. You want to see a US threat you need to be focusing on China not the tropics.

Can you stop already? This is ridiculous.

The mets have stated that they expect it to degenerate and then regenerate in the Bahamas. It can happen. Enough.

Not in my opinion and we shall see eh?[/quote]

This has nothing to do with models. Post your opinions on Erika in the discussion thread.[/quote]

It was my opinion that the models will have nothing to strengthen. So, that does deal with the models.

[chaser1]

Well, this is definitely interesting. Erika doesn't look so hot on satellite this morning ... but obviously more models are cranking her up toward the end of the 5-6 day forecast window. I've seen a lot of storms approaching FL from the general area Erika is progged to approach - and ultimately curve away at the last minute. So given A) current lousy appearance and B) the recurve factor some models are showing and past experience shows is likely, I'm not getting overly concerned here YET. But definitely worth watching to see how trends unfold in the next day or two.

Just the opinion of a semi-educated amateur, listen to the experts as always

Great point regarding model fluctuation, but even better point with regard to how Erika presently appears. Modeling has improved over the years and NHC has especially performed better and better with regard to track forecast and margin of error. Personally, I don't pay too much attention to the models quite yet, because while they may fairly accurately be displaying the near to mid term steering influences, what they cannot as effectively forecast is how well or how fast/slowly will Erika develop. That is why some models show a very weak system and some a strong one. The point here is that as the various models initiate Erika for each run, the behavior of each run may be inconsistent based on how developed (or less developed) that Erika continues to become. Even now, the storm appears not very well organized and seems to be moving westward (or just North of due west). If it remains weaker than anticipated, than it wouldn't be unreasonable for it to continue to track more westward with the surface flow (well BAMS to BAMM perhaps). Even now, the NHC forecast has Erika at 15.2 N at 1800Z today, and at 16.0 N by 0600Z tonight (well, technically tomm. a.m.) If Erika were to track south of those points, then adjustments to track would have to ensue. If that occurs, the potential for land interaction changes and suddenly the models might appear to be hopping all over the place, but in fact the variable that is not yet particularly consistent, is the storm itself.

Based on all that, I think it makes sense to wait and see if Erika truly starts to become a bit more vertically developed today through tomm. That's when I begin to pay a bit more attention to how the global models evolve and/or the nuances regarding speed of the storm's forward motion verses downstream digging troughs, cut-off lows, or building ridges may play out.

[hohnywx]

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/08/2 ... next-week/

The ECMWF Ensembles are forecasting a >50% chance of a landfalling TC next week.

[HurriGuy]

I am pretty sure the center is being exposed to the north. No thunderstorms firing off.

[HurriGuy]

[tropicwatch]

Gonzo is almost there and convection is building again.

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

I see no convection building

[tropicwatch]

Last couple of frames.

[stormlover2013]

sucker is looking bad and smaller and smaller

[Extratropical94]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

I see no convection building

Near 14.5N 50.5W in the last frame, there's a tower that is shooting.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Guys, this is the Models thread. Conversations about recon or general discussions about convection need to be taken to their respective threads please.

[Ntxw]

Guys, lets keep our cool for a productive discussion. Also this should be about models and model runs, any personal thoughts/analysis or current condition of Erika should go in the discussion thread.

Thanks

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

I see no convection building

Near 14.5N 50.5W in the last frame, there's a tower that is shooting.

I am sure that puny re-burst of convection is besides the point, the center is almost completely exposed.

[tropicwatch]

oops, sorry.

[chaser1]

I think that at this time we are kinda stuck in a bit of a "sweet spot" where two different threads cannot help but become a little intertwined. Sure, while this is the model thread and many here (myself included) are curious about the longer term prospects for Erika's track and points potentially threatened, we still have a very marginal T.S. that has yet to establish a well organized vertical structure. Therefore in its present state, even near term motion and intensity remain somewhat questionable and present motion would appear to still be primarily influenced by the more shallow surface trades. This can largely impact overall downstream model accuracy as it applies to storm track and potentially intensity as well. For the moment its difficult to discuss any one model or model consensus in a vacuum, while ignoring the fact that Erika might still not be following her own script. So yes, discussions here should remain "model" focused however those conversations and opinions will probably continue to be driven by Erika's potential struggles to develop during the next 24 hours or so (or up to the point where she becomes at least a little more organized)

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS is running

[Rgv20]

1 stray 0z ECMWF Ensemble Member has Ericka just north of the Yucatan Peninsula by day 10..

[SouthFLTropics]

The question of the hour...Will the GFS jump on board with the Euro and start to show significant development in the Bahamas...Stay tuned...The answer is coming shortly...