ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (AND
TUESDAY) WITH A POSSIBLE APPROACH NEAR E CENTRAL FL OR THE ADJACENT
ATLC WATERS FROM ERIKA OFF TO OUR SE. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE RECURVATURE EAST OF THE FL EAST COAST WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION ECMWF INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SFC PRESSURE
DROPPING TO BELOW 990 MBS AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE SFC LOW ~1013 MBS...WHICH IS 10 MBS WEAKER THAN IT CURRENT
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS IN
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THOUGH
THE TRACK FORECASTS FROM THE TWO MODELS ARE NOT THAT DISSIMILAR WHEN
THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO FL...BOTH KEEPING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE
AREA...FOR THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS AT LEAST. AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CLOSE TO GFS MOS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND INDICATE
SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR SUN-MON WITH POSSIBLE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST
CENTRAL SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING THE
WEATHER FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM....VOLKMER

[PTrackerLA]

Eye opening track there on the Euro. Let's see if it can gain some consistency with the 12z, it did not perform well with Danny initially.

[invest man]

The latest Euro "if" it were to verify, reminds me a little of Hurricane Floyd from 1999. Go look at the set up found on wikipedia along with its track. It came very close to Fl EC before heading up into the ENC. Big difference of course is Floyd did not stall and it was later in the season so the trough kept digging, pulling it pole ward.

[Blown Away]

06z...

12z...


12z...

Intensity taking off!!

[JPmia]

And trending a little further west..

[Kohlecane]

06z...

Intensity taking off!!

Anyway you can post this or give me link its not showing up on my computer?

[Big O]

06z...

Intensity taking off!!

In studying the model output, I couldn't help but notice that if Erika becomes deeper than expected, a much more westward heading could come into play (i.e., see the BAMD).

I have a question for any pro mets or amateurs with knowledge of the BAM models. How deep does a system have to be to be considered "deep" for purposes of the BAMD?

[AJC3]

Gang, be sure to remove image tags whenever you are quoting a post with multiple images. If you don't it quickly clogs up threads.

Thanks.

[Hurricane Andrew]

06z GFDL keeps Erika week until the Bahamas, where the becomes a strengthening hurricane heading on a west-northwest heading.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=350

[SouthFLTropics]

06z GFDL keeps Erika week until the Bahamas, where the becomes a strengthening hurricane heading on a west-northwest heading.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=350

The models are painting a target all over us here in South Florida. No reason to get nervous yet. We've been here many times before. Cautious and aware, but not nervous. The Euro this morning did give me pause though. Today's 12z Euro will be very critical. With it being late August I'm more concerned now than I would be if it was 3-4 weeks from now. High has been persistent this Summer and a strong front dipping down to erode the ridge now versus late September is less likely.

SFT

[Weatherboy1]

Well, this is definitely interesting. Erika doesn't look so hot on satellite this morning ... but obviously more models are cranking her up toward the end of the 5-6 day forecast window. I've seen a lot of storms approaching FL from the general area Erika is progged to approach - and ultimately curve away at the last minute. So given A) current lousy appearance and B) the recurve factor some models are showing and past experience shows is likely, I'm not getting overly concerned here YET. But definitely worth watching to see how trends unfold in the next day or two.

Just the opinion of a semi-educated amateur, listen to the experts as always

[Dean4Storms]

This is the ECM EPS Control Run from 00z!!

Erika stuck in the Gulf until 360 hours moving NNE.

[otowntiger]

Well, this is definitely interesting. Erika doesn't look so hot on satellite this morning ... but obviously more models are cranking her up toward the end of the 5-6 day forecast window. I've seen a lot of storms approaching FL from the general area Erika is progged to approach - and ultimately curve away at the last minute. So given A) current lousy appearance and B) the recurve factor some models are showing and past experience shows is likely, I'm not getting overly concerned here YET. But definitely worth watching to see how trends unfold in the next day or two

I agree with this. In my 26 years of living here there have been numerous storms in that general vicinity to potentially threatened us but either slid to our south, most often re-curved harmlessly to our east and in many cases weakened or dissipated well before the threat materialized. So in my non meteorologist humble opinion its not much to get worked up over by any means for now. It is interesting to watch for sure but I think the biggest unknown, much more than track is intensity. It could follow a 'threatening' path but if its just a few swirly clouds with a few breezy showers there won't be much to worry about regardless of where it goes.

[stormlover2013]

I am wondering if erika even survives

[NCSTORMMAN]

I am wondering if erika even survives

Models will have nothing to strengthen if she is dead already.

[Blown Away]

06z GFDL keeps Erika week until the Bahamas, where the becomes a strengthening hurricane heading on a west-northwest heading.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=350

Blowing up from hours 100-126... 105 mph, strengthening, moving WNW...

[HurriGuy]

Good morning everyone.

Currently Erika does not look too good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

I am getting very suspicious at the moment because ASCAT just passed and frankly, I don't think we have a west wind. This system is moving too fast for its own good. Currently Erika is moving due west and I don't think she will start hitting NHC's forecast points. I am personally expecting major changes in the NHC forecast track and intensity today. Weaker and shifting the cone to the south and to the west. My point was proven by the ECMWF control run which has Erika weaker and way further west. Of course this is all my personal opinion and I would like to see more model runs and recon data. I'm just not ready to throw a major cane in the Bahamas just yet.

If Erika stays struggling and remains weak, it most likely will not take the weakness in the ridge making it turn north.

ASCAT PASS:
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBas100.png

[Bocadude85]

I am wondering if erika even survives

Models will have nothing to strengthen if she is dead already.

Stroms can degenerate to open waves and then redevelop when they find better conditions. It happens fairly frequently.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I am wondering if erika even survives

Models will have nothing to strengthen if she is dead already.

Stroms can degenerate to open waves and then redevelop when they find better conditions. It happens fairly frequently.

Not here and not in many years. Models are being fed crap and spit out crap. You want to see a US threat you need to be focusing on China not the tropics.

[hohnywx]

[/quote]

Not here and not in many years. Models are being fed crap and spit out crap. You want to see a US threat you need to be focusing on China not the tropics.[/quote]

Can you stop already? This is ridiculous.

The mets have stated that they expect it to degenerate and then regenerate in the Bahamas. It can happen. Enough.