ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Near the center? I am seeing it appears that the convection is picking up a bit, unless my eyes are playing tricks with me.

[Alyono]

Erika looks pretty unhealthy this morning on satellite imagery. Convection is quite limited at the moment.

agreed. It also has shrunk in size. Not much larger than Danny now. Makes more vulnerable to unfavorable conditions.

Not sure why everyone insists on going against the global models with this one. If anything, they tend to overdevelop these things

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection is quite limited everywhere. There is only one small burst of convection which looks to be sheared off from the surface center.

I have the center near 15.1N, 50.0W:

[northjaxpro]

Well, I respect the analysis from both of you above being that each of you are among the pros on here. Erika may be shrinking in size to counter my point of view.

[hurricaneCW]

Well if the Euro is right then it's probably going to stay this weak until it gets near the Bahamas track pending of course.

[TheStormExpert]

@RyanMaue: EC ensembles generally agree on location of TS #Erika is a week. But intensity spread is large. Still too early to talk US impacts.

[deltadog03]

This is racing WEST *ward* needs to gain some lat or its going into the islands.

[tolakram]

live visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-50&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

wider view

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-50&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[Gustywind]

Here is the latest weather Press cyclonic activity for Guadeloupe.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... dirrag.pdf


Interregional Directorate AntillesGuyane

Tuesday, August 25, 2015 05 AM

Press cyclonic activity

Good evening,

As expected, the strong tropical wave over the central Atlantic became the fifth cyclonic phenomenon of the season. He has been named directly to a tropical storm with ERIKA name. It is expected that it increases to tropical storm force passing on Guadeloupe and the Northern Islands and then hurricane continuing its course to the west.

Erika is situated about 1200 km east of the Lesser Antilles and moving quickly westward at the speed of 31km / h. This trajectory is expected to continue for the next days and the Lesser Antilles would then be concerned for Thursday afternoon. Uncertainty remains fairly important, both in terms of the final trajectory of and concerning the intensity.
It should be in its conditions to monitor this feature very carefully.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Erika is Born in Atlantic, Threatens Leeward Islands at Midweek

By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist

August 25, 2015; 6:50 AM ET

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... t/52021729

Tropical Storm Erika formed on Monday night and will track toward the Leeward Islands later this week.

As Tropical Rainstorm Danny tracks across the northern Caribbean islands, Erika will follow a similar track and bring another round of welcome rainfall.
This system will be steered westward by a large dome of high pressure across the Atlantic during much of this week.

"Erika will closely follow the track of Danny and approach the Leeward Islands later this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Rinde said.
Erika is located about 840 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

"Erika will be moving through an environment with warm waters and generally low wind shear," AccuWeather Meteorologist Robert Richards said.

"This environment will be conducive for further development over the next couple days," he added.

Tropical systems are most likely to strengthen in areas of weak wind shear. If wind shear is too strong, the system becomes disorganized and weakens.
Wind shear is when strong winds near the surface and aloft blow strongly from different directions," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

Danny thrived late last week in a zone of low wind shear. Once it moved into an area of increasing wind shear near the Leeward Islands, the system weakened rapidly.

While Erika is forecast to strengthen over the next several days, wind shear may again cause it to weaken or prevent any further strengthening when approaching the Leeward Islands. A track into the northern islands of the Caribbean would bring another dose of needed rainfall.
Much of the eastern half of Puerto Rico is under at least a severe drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Because of this, water rationing programs are in effect on the eastern side of the island.

If this system slices north of the Leeward Islands, where wind shear is somewhat lower, then it could survive and perhaps strengthen again. In this scenario, steering winds north of the Caribbean Islands will likely allow the system to track northwestward and then northward over the western part of the Atlantic basin.
Erika is predicted to move across the northern Caribbean as a strong tropical storm, but it could be as strong as a minimal Category 1 hurricane from late this week into the weekend.

According to Kottlowski, the exact path this weekend into next week is uncertain at this time.

"All interests in the northeast Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida and the Southeast United States should closely monitor the progression of this system," Kottlowski said.

The AccuWeather Hurricane Center will continue to provide information on Erika, as well as all other tropical features across all ocean basins.

Despite a quiet first half of the hurricane season across the Atlantic, late August and through September are typically the peak of tropical activity.

At this point in the hurricane season, water temperatures are at their warmest. This gives disturbances moving across the Atlantic from Africa the best chance for development.

In May, AccuWeather predicted eight tropical storms, four of those to become hurricanes across the Atlantic Basin during 2015. Erika is the fifth tropical storm of the season with Danny being the only storm becoming a hurricane.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOCATED NEAR 14N49W.
ERIKA IS MOVING W AT AROUND 17 KT AND IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
A WNW TRAJECTORY WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Alyono]

I will be surprised if recon closes off a center

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 251153
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...ERIKA MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 50.2W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a tropical
storm watch for St. Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua
* Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba
* St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Erika, as watches may be required for additional areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

[hurrtracker79]

What time does recon depart today?

[Extratropical94]

What time does recon depart today?

The aircraft is scheduled to depart at 1700Z, or 1:00pm EDT.

[WeatherGuesser]

there is another scenario, and not sure why it is not being discussed here as most models show this happening.

The system weakens back to a wave (if it even had a fully closed circulation) and regenerates in the Bahamas or SE GOM

That's not exciting enough though for some.

[deltadog03]

New update on my Twitter and Facebook pages this morning. Erika looking rough now, but I think its got an interesting life ahead of her. I still think the best chances for significant strengthening will be as it approaches the Bahamas. SE needs to keep an eye on this one IMHO **if its still a TC at that point*

[Evil Jeremy]

"Every day, it's a-gettin closer, moving faster than a roller coaster"

First time in a long time Florida has been under threat from the East. And looks like it's all of Florida, not just South Florida. That EURO is scary. I just relocated from Broward County to Jacksonville this weekend, but it doesn't seem like anyone is clear right now. Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a long week.

[BucMan2]

Good morning to all,

I have seen another possible scenario of Erica possibly going up the West coast of Florida.
Is that plausible or just an Outlier? Have a great day!

[hurricaneCW]

It's also possible Erika dies like Danny and never regenerates. Erika is getting worse by the hour and some shear and dry air is evident on satellite loops.