ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[chaser1]

Recent overall envelope appearance with primary convection in the south quadrant and possible banding arcing towards the west, leads me to believe that Erika is presently moving swiftly westward, with her center possible centered directly under that new burst of convection around 14 - 14.5. We'll likely have to wait till morning visible satellite pics to verify. With a more finite initialization tomm. a.m., I'm guessing we'll see a southward shift in forecast track, if not immediatly by NHC... then perhaps within some of the models between their 12Z - 18Z forecast runs. Will be interesting to watch unfold.

[Blown Away]

Deep strong system will be influenced poleward... Shallow weaker system has more westerly component... IMO if Erika begins to deepen after @65W, it's going to be difficult to miss Bahamas and CONUS. JMHO...

[floridasun78]

good night all let see what Erika do on wed

[ozonepete]

Very interesting fact about the formation of ERIKA from Dr Phil Klotzbach.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 16m16 minutes ago
Erika has formed in the trop Atl, six days ahead of the 1981-2010 average fifth named storm formation date of 8/31.

Hmmm what happened to the El Nino forecast? I personally always thought it was overrated and El Nino has often not correlated well with the number of storms by itself. It has to coincide with a lot of other factors. We will see what Erika does and how the rest of the season plays out, but a one-to-one correlation of El Nino and the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic has never been proven, probably because no proof has ever been presented.

[Brent]

Hurricane in the Bahamas:

[JtSmarts]

Been a good while since we have had track like that, showing a hurricane in the bahamas generally pointing at the US. I believe Irene was the last time.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like they nudged the track right just a little.

[northjaxpro]

Possibly a strengthening hurricane in the Bahamas at that 5-day time frame if you hug the EURO.

Now we watch the cone. If that ridge remains strong out through this 5-day period, this cone could shift a bit to the south as time progresses. Interesting times ahead for sure!

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Looks like they nudged the track right just a little.

But, NHC at the end of the discussion at 5 a.m. made sure to point out and emphasize that confidence with their track forecast is low!

So there will be likely changes to come with the track for sure.

[jlauderdal]

Been a good while since we have had track like that, showing a hurricane in the bahamas generally pointing at the US. I believe Irene was the last time.

it has a been awhile for sure and something with major status potential...be interesting to see the 11 am and how they feel about track since they are so far left of guidance at 5am

[CourierPR]

Been a good while since we have had track like that, showing a hurricane in the bahamas generally pointing at the US. I believe Irene was the last time.

it has a been awhile for sure and something with major status potential...be interesting to see the 11 am and how they feel about track since they are so far left of guidance at 5am

It looks like the NHC split the difference and went down the middle to my untrained eyes.

[Alyono]

there is another scenario, and not sure why it is not being discussed here as most models show this happening.

The system weakens back to a wave (if it even had a fully closed circulation) and regenerates in the Bahamas or SE GOM

[Gustywind]

From SSD...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/0545 UTC 14.3N 48.3W T2.5/2.5 ERIKA
24/2345 UTC 14.3N 46.2W T2.0/2.0 98L
24/1745 UTC 14.5N 45.0W T2.0/2.0 98L
24/1145 UTC 13.4N 42.0W T1.5/1.5 98L
24/0545 UTC 13.5N 40.6W T1.5/1.5 98L
23/2345 UTC 13.6N 39.2W T1.0/1.0 98L

[Gustywind]

Best track.


AL, 98, 2015082506, , BEST, 0, 145N, 486W, 40, 1003, TS

[Gustywind]

Given the latest weather forecast of Guadeloupe, our Pro Mets said that Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards may see a changing color in terms of weather alert. I will keep you informed if i've more infos soon.

[jlauderdal]

there is another scenario, and not sure why it is not being discussed here as most models show this happening.

The system weakens back to a wave (if it even had a fully closed circulation) and regenerates in the Bahamas or SE GOM

seems like better conditions west of 70..will see how it pans out...they closed off that circulation last night just to settle everyone down on this board looking for a named system

[northjaxpro]

Erika is now crossing 50 degrees Longitude. Again, to put into perspective how fast Erika has traversed the MDR, she was just passing 30 degrees Longitude just 72 hours ago. That is really booking. If Erika continues at the 20 mph or more forward speed to the west, she will be moving through the Islands beginning late afternoon Thursday intoThursday evening.

[northjaxpro]

Erika now is beginning to fire more deeper convection around the center observing IR imagery right now. This may be a sign that She is beginning to get it together gradually now with a strengthening trend. This remains to be seen, but the tropical cyclone is getting that healthy appearance right now.

[tailgater]

Erika is now crossing 50 degrees Longitude. Again, to put into perspective how fast Erika has traversed the MDR, she was just passing 30 degrees Longitude just 72 hours ago. That is really booking. If Erika continues at the 20 mph or more forward speed to the west, she will be moving through the Islands beginning late afternoon Thursday intoThursday evening.

Or earlier according to NHC
Tropical Storm watches are out

[SouthDadeFish]

Erika looks pretty unhealthy this morning on satellite imagery. Convection is quite limited at the moment.