ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

we find more about ERIKA when plane go in good thing plane trip was plan for tue

[fendie]

Sometime in the next 24 hours Erika is going to pass over the same coordinates Danny was at less than 4 days ago.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1145 UTC 15.6N 56.7W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
23/0545 UTC 15.4N 55.3W T2.5/3.5 DANNY
22/2345 UTC 15.6N 54.0W T3.0/4.0 DANNY
22/1745 UTC 16.0N 52.4W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
22/1145 UTC 15.4N 51.4W T3.5/4.5 DANNY
22/0545 UTC 15.1N 50.0W T4.0/4.5 DANNY
21/2345 UTC 14.9N 49.3W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.4W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.8W T5.0/5.0 DANNY
21/0545 UTC 13.5N 46.9W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/2345 UTC 13.2N 46.0W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/1745 UTC 12.7N 45.3W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
20/1145 UTC 12.4N 44.2W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
20/0545 UTC 12.0N 43.1W T2.5/3.0 DANNY

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS [ERIKA]
INIT 25/0300Z 14.4N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 14.9N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 16.5N 56.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 17.1N 59.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 18.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

[floridasun78]

here Buoy link that show one close to ERIKA http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at5 their is 41041 that nhc use data to upgrade to ts

[chaser1]

It was a "good call", and given the tropical storm force winds already occuring, continued drop in pressure, over-all-model support, and present speed of motion... there was little other choice. Now comes the next chapter while we sit & watch to see if/how quickly Erika develops and how steering and conditions for (or against development) unfold.

Whether good or bad, regardless of whether our perspective is that of severe weather enthusiast or scared and concerned property owner... neither our subjective feelings or self proclaimed knowledge will have any bearing on how things will ultimately play out. This may be a good time to take a breath, sit back and simply observe for those of us who are weather enthusiasts (at least before we immediatly go off with some glib "it's a fish", "gonna be a Cat 5", or "it'll never survive" remarks), and for those here who are in the Leewards, V.I., Puerto Rico, Bahamas, or U.S. who are concerned - there's no reason to take immediate measures or be overly anxious, but perhaps would be a great time to simply take stock of your hurricane plan and supply checklist "in the event" that this tropical system (or any other this year) might truly pose a serious threat to your safety & property in the days to come.

Lastly, will someone go down the hallway and knock on Ninel's door. There's another Atlantic tropical cyclone out there and someone should let him know. Besides, regardless how strong it may/may not get or even where it goes... theres no reason he can't just "live in the now" and simply watch curiously with the rest of us.

[Gustywind]

You can post the latest pic of TS Erika? Thanks.

[chaser1]

Katrina was like that when was in Bahamas as 70mph storm turn into hurr at last min i remember eye passing over my place first time i been in eye of hurr i could see eye wall claim of eye

I'll bet THAT was one of life's highlights that you'll never forget! We're you able to get any pictures or video? Either way though, I'm sure thats something you'll always remember.

[tolakram]

live IR loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-40&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[BigB0882]

How is this compared to Danny in size?

[tropicwatch]

Looks like it is moving wsw currently.

[Gustywind]

live IR loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-40&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

Given my untrained eyes look like Erika is maybe moving wsw ??? Center location really at 14,4N?!

[HURAKAN]

Looks like it is moving wsw currently.

Don't follow the convection

[MGC]

Erika looks to be embedded in a fairly favorable environment for intensification. The cyclone is much larger than Danny......MGC

[TimeZone]

How is this compared to Danny in size?

Much larger.

[Gustywind]

Looks like it is moving wsw currently.

I have noticied that too, that's surprising

[floridasun78]

It was a "good call", and given the tropical storm force winds already occuring, continued drop in pressure, over-all-model support, and present speed of motion... there was little other choice. Now comes the next chapter while we sit & watch to see if/how quickly Erika develops and how steering and conditions for (or against development) unfold.

Whether good or bad, regardless of whether our perspective is that of severe weather enthusiast or scared and concerned property owner... neither our subjective feelings or self proclaimed knowledge will have any bearing on how things will ultimately play out. This may be a good time to take a breath, sit back and simply observe for those of us who are weather enthusiasts (at least before we immediatly go off with some glib "it's a fish", "gonna be a Cat 5", or "it'll never survive" remarks), and for those here who are in the Leewards, V.I., Puerto Rico, Bahamas, or U.S. who are concerned - there's no reason to take immediate measures or be overly anxious, but perhaps would be a great time to simply take stock of your hurricane plan and supply checklist "in the event" that this tropical system (or any other this year) might truly pose a serious threat to your safety & property in the days to come.

Lastly, will someone go down the hallway and knock on Ninel's door. There's another Atlantic tropical cyclone out there and someone should let him know. Besides, regardless how strong it may/may not get or even where it goes... theres no reason he can't just "live in the now" and simply watch curiously with the rest of us.

best post of night

[floridasun78]

Katrina was like that when was in Bahamas as 70mph storm turn into hurr at last min i remember eye passing over my place first time i been in eye of hurr i could see eye wall claim of eye

I'll bet THAT was one of life's highlights that you'll never forget! We're you able to get any pictures or video? Either way though, I'm sure thats something you'll always remember.

no was in shock to see eye wall of hurr what few of us i bet seen no rain wind was claim but second part eye wall was wild ride gust to 85 as hurr move sw it got alot people supprise doing rush hour

[tropicwatch]

A different look:

[AutoPenalti]

Convection popping up is what's causing the illusion of a SSW track.

[Hurricaneman]

Its probably at 14.5N which puts its movement at north of west at the moment because its not moving WSW thats an illusion of an unstacked system due to shear

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[cycloneye]

Very interesting fact about the formation of ERIKA from Dr Phil Klotzbach.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 16m16 minutes ago
Erika has formed in the trop Atl, six days ahead of the 1981-2010 average fifth named storm formation date of 8/31.