ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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TheAustinMan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#321 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:16 pm

tolakram wrote:Nope, it hugs the coast and then moves off east. Probably nothing.


Going even further into the GFS fantasy range, it actually moves east briefly before curving southwestward and hitting Cape Canaveral, but I think that specific detail is too far out to be considered pertinent to reality at this time.
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Re: Re:

#322 Postby perk » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:19 pm

gatorcane wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:18Z GFS actually shows an upper-level anticyclone in place over the Bahamas between 120-144 hours. It appears 98L slightly outruns the anticyclone aloft and fails to take advantage of low shear conditions. I noticed the HWRF really pumps up a ridge aloft, which allows 98L to intensify. It seems forward speed and initial intensification can play a huge role down the road.


Yep look at that upper-high just off the SE Coast of Florida:

Image


What about that wind shear showing up in the GOM.
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Re: Re:

#323 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:20 pm

gatorcane wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:
Image


That is insane shear over the entire Gulf. Unless that anti-cyclone moved right with the storm then it wouldn't stand a chance. Is shear normally that high in the Gulf this time of year? Seems very odd.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#324 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:22 pm

yea gatorcane look at that shear also.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#325 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:23 pm

:uarrow: Pretty big trough dropping through the Mississippi Valley there...Does seem awfully deep for this time of year.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#326 Postby perk » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:25 pm

Yeah can that shear analysis be correct,30 to 50kt shear over the entire GOM. :?:
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#327 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:26 pm

18Z GFS shows back to back anticyclonic wave breaking events over the Western U.S. which reinforce the Gulf trough. These are the result of a very amplified Rossby wave train as Typhoons Goni and Atsani recurve into the westerlies. Very complex pattern ahead.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#328 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:27 pm

SFLcane wrote:yea gatorcane look at that shear also.


Conversely, the shear could be substantially less if the possible TC is located underneath the upper level ridge. This is what the HWRF shows. Very tricky forecast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#329 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:33 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
SFLcane wrote:yea gatorcane look at that shear also.


Conversely, the shear could be substantially less if the possible TC is located underneath the upper level ridge. This is what the HWRF shows. Very tricky forecast.


As I believe you said earlier...Forward speed, initial intensity, and timing are going to mean everything.

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#330 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:39 pm

Keep in mind that the GFS has been notorious in the past of deepening troughs too much. I am not saying its wrong here, but from past experiences that model can be too aggressive with forecasting these troughs .
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#331 Postby perk » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:51 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
SFLcane wrote:yea gatorcane look at that shear also.


Conversely, the shear could be substantially less if the possible TC is located underneath the upper level ridge. This is what the HWRF shows. Very tricky forecast.


Very good point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#332 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:53 pm

18z HWRF not done yet still blowing this up near SE Bahamas..

Image
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#333 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:05 pm

How the 18Z HWRF ends, about 7MB higher pressure than the 12Z :eek:

Image

Door open for a recurve?
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#334 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:11 pm

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2015/2015082412/ukm2.2015083000.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

UKMET still developing this into a pretty strong storm, and it's done well with it so far (previous runs didn't have a particularly strong storm until tomorrow or the day after)

As an aside, is there any way to actually see what wind/pressure it is forecasting?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#335 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:13 pm

Gatorcane and there is your MAGICAL DOOR! Well see but iam still betting this recurves.
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#336 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:15 pm

Scary! And just where I like to be at 5 days out. ;)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#337 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:16 pm

Hammy wrote:http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2015/2015082412/ukm2.2015083000.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

UKMET still developing this into a pretty strong storm, and it's done well with it so far (previous runs didn't have a particularly strong storm until tomorrow or the day after)

As an aside, is there any way to actually see what wind/pressure it is forecasting?


Well here is the 144 hour map:
Image

I get the maps from here:
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... est&hh=144
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#338 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:17 pm

Well, most major canes that I've seen these past couple of seasons have been nothing but fishes. I really wonder what causes these magic troughs.

I feel like it's such a meer coincidence that it's there just in time to scoop up a storm with such high caliber.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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#339 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:19 pm

18Z NAVGEM:

Image
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Re:

#340 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:How the 18Z HWRF ends, about 7MB higher pressure than the 12Z :eek:

Image

Door open for a recurve?
Image

When I played the loop it looked like the ridge was building in.
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