ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1047
Age: 25
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: United States
Contact:
Contact TheAustinMan

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#321 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:16 pm

tolakram wrote:Nope, it hugs the coast and then moves off east. Probably nothing.


Going even further into the GFS fantasy range, it actually moves east briefly before curving southwestward and hitting Cape Canaveral, but I think that specific detail is too far out to be considered pertinent to reality at this time.
0 likes   
ImageImageImage
Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.
Top
User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: Re:

#322 Postby perk » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:19 pm

gatorcane wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:18Z GFS actually shows an upper-level anticyclone in place over the Bahamas between 120-144 hours. It appears 98L slightly outruns the anticyclone aloft and fails to take advantage of low shear conditions. I noticed the HWRF really pumps up a ridge aloft, which allows 98L to intensify. It seems forward speed and initial intensification can play a huge role down the road.


Yep look at that upper-high just off the SE Coast of Florida:

Image


What about that wind shear showing up in the GOM.
0 likes   
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

Re: Re:

#323 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:20 pm

gatorcane wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:
Image


That is insane shear over the entire Gulf. Unless that anti-cyclone moved right with the storm then it wouldn't stand a chance. Is shear normally that high in the Gulf this time of year? Seems very odd.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#324 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:22 pm

yea gatorcane look at that shear also.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#325 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:23 pm

:uarrow: Pretty big trough dropping through the Mississippi Valley there...Does seem awfully deep for this time of year.

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#326 Postby perk » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:25 pm

Yeah can that shear analysis be correct,30 to 50kt shear over the entire GOM. :?:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#327 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:26 pm

18Z GFS shows back to back anticyclonic wave breaking events over the Western U.S. which reinforce the Gulf trough. These are the result of a very amplified Rossby wave train as Typhoons Goni and Atsani recurve into the westerlies. Very complex pattern ahead.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#328 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:27 pm

SFLcane wrote:yea gatorcane look at that shear also.


Conversely, the shear could be substantially less if the possible TC is located underneath the upper level ridge. This is what the HWRF shows. Very tricky forecast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#329 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:33 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
SFLcane wrote:yea gatorcane look at that shear also.


Conversely, the shear could be substantially less if the possible TC is located underneath the upper level ridge. This is what the HWRF shows. Very tricky forecast.


As I believe you said earlier...Forward speed, initial intensity, and timing are going to mean everything.

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#330 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:39 pm

Keep in mind that the GFS has been notorious in the past of deepening troughs too much. I am not saying its wrong here, but from past experiences that model can be too aggressive with forecasting these troughs .
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#331 Postby perk » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:51 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
SFLcane wrote:yea gatorcane look at that shear also.


Conversely, the shear could be substantially less if the possible TC is located underneath the upper level ridge. This is what the HWRF shows. Very tricky forecast.


Very good point.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#332 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:53 pm

18z HWRF not done yet still blowing this up near SE Bahamas..

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#333 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:05 pm

How the 18Z HWRF ends, about 7MB higher pressure than the 12Z :eek:

Image

Door open for a recurve?
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#334 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:11 pm

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2015/2015082412/ukm2.2015083000.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

UKMET still developing this into a pretty strong storm, and it's done well with it so far (previous runs didn't have a particularly strong storm until tomorrow or the day after)

As an aside, is there any way to actually see what wind/pressure it is forecasting?
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#335 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:13 pm

Gatorcane and there is your MAGICAL DOOR! Well see but iam still betting this recurves.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1542
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#336 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:15 pm

Scary! And just where I like to be at 5 days out. ;)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#337 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:16 pm

Hammy wrote:http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2015/2015082412/ukm2.2015083000.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

UKMET still developing this into a pretty strong storm, and it's done well with it so far (previous runs didn't have a particularly strong storm until tomorrow or the day after)

As an aside, is there any way to actually see what wind/pressure it is forecasting?


Well here is the 144 hour map:
Image

I get the maps from here:
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... est&hh=144
0 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

#338 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:17 pm

Well, most major canes that I've seen these past couple of seasons have been nothing but fishes. I really wonder what causes these magic troughs.

I feel like it's such a meer coincidence that it's there just in time to scoop up a storm with such high caliber.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#339 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:19 pm

18Z NAVGEM:

Image
0 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

Re:

#340 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:How the 18Z HWRF ends, about 7MB higher pressure than the 12Z :eek:

Image

Door open for a recurve?
Image

When I played the loop it looked like the ridge was building in.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests