ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

twc say 98l got hit shear and dry air to nw and say that likely only stay strong ts not hurr near bahamas he show too most models show as strong ts nor hurr

[cycloneye]

The waiting game continues. At least they can release a STWO.

[AutoPenalti]

Seems to have problems organizing with how fast it's going. Doesn't seem to be slowing down and it's only hurting itself.

[Blown Away]

twc say 98l got hit shear and dry air to nw and say that likely only stay strong ts not hurr near bahamas he show too most models show as strong ts nor hurr

Models that strengthened 98L to hurricane recurved near/east of Bahamas... A shallower TS strengthening as it moves into the Bahamas... Not good IMO, hard to escape after that...

[TheStormExpert]

Will conditions even be favorable in the Bahamas is the big question?

[Blown Away]

Will conditions even be favorable in the Bahamas is the big question?

GFS/Euro seem to show favorable conditions in EGOM, not sure how far east they carry from EGOM...

[cycloneye]

I guess this was why no upgrade at 5.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 15m15 minutes ago
Buoy 41041 not making it easy to classify 98L. Still north wind despite seemingly on south side. 1004mb pressure.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 12m12 minutes ago
@TropicalTidbits it's like Xmas morning every hour with that buoy for the moment

[Hammy]

Looks like the center is still a bit broad at the moment given the lack of any westerly component to the wind--satellite indicates low cloud flow moving west to east, but well south of the circulation center (and south of the buoy). Probably another hour or two to go before it passes but I suspect if we don't see anything in the next few hours indicating a closed low (barring an ASCAT pass later) they'll wait until tomorrow's flight.

[deltadog03]

I actually think this as an interesting life ahead and full of potential if it can develop and survive. GFS is likely too far East, but we shall see. The trof split coming down after this weeks Trof in the EAST will be a huge player in where this goes ***If*** it develops and can survive track into the Bahamas.

[ronjon]

Looks like the NHC is being cautious with 98L. It doesn't help it has little support from the GFS and Euro. They typically put a lot of weight on these globals.

[ronjon]

Off topic but that WU show on TWC is barely watchable. The hosts seem to be trying a little too hard.

[YoshiMike]

Being that there are favorable conditions in the EGOM, is there a chance it could rapidly strengthen and hit like the panhandle or central gulf coast or is that already ruled out? And yes, I am aware it is too far out for any certainty, I'm asking about the possibility

[Hammy]

Buoy winds are out of ENE now, is it possible the center was pulled (or redeveloped) closer to the convection and went a bit south?

[MGC]

No rush to upgrade still a ways off from the islands. Might have a hard time closing off that west wind with 98L moving a fast as it is. Should be a TC soon though......MGC

[LarryWx]

I just saw the brand new hourly update at buoy 41041 and still saw no westerly component of the winds. Maybe the main reason for that is that the center didn't pass to the north after all (consistent with what Hammy said). It looks to me that the center may have gone right over it (winds lightened to only 2 knots) and has just passed it being that pressures are now rising. Winds shifted from N to NE to SE within just a half hour. However, one thing I'm noting is that the highest wind gusts before it passed were only ~21 knots. So, based on that alone, perhaps the NHC is waiting to see if there are going to be higher winds than that to allow for an upgrade. Also, the SE winds following its passage are so far only gusting to around 10 knots. I'll be looking to see how much stronger they get over the next few hours as the center pulls away to the west. If they don't exceed the low 20's of knots, I suppose it could still be upgraded to a 25 knot TD.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[Sanibel]

With that spin and red IR I don't see anything to stop development. Don't know what's inhibiting it right now. And it's in category 3 Danny's wake.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

With that spin and red IR I don't see anything to stop development. Don't know what's inhibiting it right now. And it's in category 3 Danny's wake.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think 98L is its own worst enemy right now due to the forward speed. If it slows down it will really get stacked and takeoff.

SFT

[tolakram]

The shear analysis is more complex, with a anti-cyclone over top but not aligned.

[YoshiMike]

May I ask what an anti cyclone is?

[tropicwatch]

41041 found the wind


Station 41041
NDBC
Location: 14.329N 46.082W
Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 22:50:00 UTC

Winds: S (180°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 42.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (73°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.69 in and rising
Air Temperature: 77.4 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 81.5 F

View Details Opens in new window - View History Opens in new window