ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Looks upgradable to me - this system is much larger than Danny so it may have a better chance at fighting off some hostile conditions until it finds more favorable ones:

That's what Levi Cowan said in his video yesterday, that it might have a better chance at surviving cause of it's large size.

[gatorcane]

Looks how much bigger this system is than ex-Danny as we pan out. Even when Danny was a hurricane, it was nowhere near the size of 98L

[hurrtracker79]

Looks how much bigger this system is than ex-Danny as we pan out.

Looks like a monster compared to Danny. My goodness.

[Hammy]

Satellite presentation sort of reminds me of 2009 with Ana going into the islands and Bill developing behind it. Interestingly it was during the previous El Nino.

I see no indication though that this will be upgraded today, they don't often do 11pm upgrades so my money is when the plane arrives tomorrow if it doesn't weaken significantly first (which wouldn't surprise me in the least)

[drezee]

I know there is protocol and all but in the environment and forward speed...if the LLC closes then for all intents and purposes it should go to TS On the first advisory. You are not going to close a tropical depression going 25mph...

ASCAT has shown what I stated yesterday, if it closes it will be a TS. The amount of environmental influence is night and day from Danny. This will not go quietly in the night...

[floridasun78]

this Levi latest post Buoy 41041 down to 1004.5 mb still west of 98L's center. May get down to 1003mb. Haven't seen many 1003mb invests.

[USTropics]

With Danny I remember they released a tweet before issuing advisories. Not sure if that is the norm now or not.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just a quick intensity prediction. Going with a midline route, I think some models are being way to comsebrative with strength. On the otherhand, I don't quite buy the HWRF's 960mb either.

98L Forecast 1
0hrs - 45mph (per Best Track)
24hrs - 50mph
48hrs - 55mph
72hrs - 60mph
96hrs - 70mph
120hrs - 70mph

Factors for Strength Forecast
Pro-Strengthening: SSTs, Air Moisture, System Size
Anti-Strengthening: Shear (20-30knts predicted)

[Alyono]

ASCAT showed that the circulation is not yet closed

[floridasun78]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4h4 hours ago

Buoy 41041 will be just to the south of 98L's center in a couple hours. Will we get NW wind? Pressure falling fast.

[TheStormExpert]

Satellite presentation sort of reminds me of 2009 with Ana going into the islands and Bill developing behind it. Interestingly it was during the previous El Nino.

I was just thinking of Ana(2009) and how the first advisory had the cone going towards SE FL as a 70mph TS. Following advisories gradually started trending back and weaker since it struggled and fell apart in the MDR.

Wondering if we will see a similar situation here?

[drezee]

I wish they would have flown a GlobalHawk into it. They have the ability...we will just have to wait for Recon tomorrow. I firmly believe that we have a TS now.

[drezee]

ASCAT showed that the circulation is not yet closed

Exactly, I said if and when it closes it will already be at TS strength.

[Weatherlover12]

ASCAT showed that the circulation is not yet closed[/quot

ASCAT showed that the circulation is not yet closed

Which ASCAT are you looking at?

[drezee]

ASCAT indicates it's already a tropical storm. Very good circulation and plenty of 35kt winds. It's a lot more of a TS than Danny was yesterday. Plenty of hostile conditions in its path, however. I think it will fluctuate up and down in intensity/organization over the coming days. Shear will be an issue for the next 5-7 days. Can't rule out a track into the eastern Gulf, but the GFS indicates 40-50 kts of SW shear across much of the Gulf next week. It won't have an easy life...

This one from this AM

[Hammy]

Satellite presentation sort of reminds me of 2009 with Ana going into the islands and Bill developing behind it. Interestingly it was during the previous El Nino.

I was just thinking of Ana(2009) and how the first advisory had the cone going towards SE FL as a 70mph TS. Following advisories gradually started trending back and weaker since it struggled and fell apart in the MDR.

Wondering if we will see a similar situation here?

Ana was much smaller, similar to Danny.

Is it possible that they're waiting for another ASCAT pass?

[floridasun78]

maybe 11pm??? we see Erika

[hurricanekid416]

I think that it has just closed off recently while this morning it was decoupled

[tropicwatch]

Close up last few visible frames.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-43&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[NDG]

You can't go by a an ASCAT pass from 8 hrs ago.