ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[PTrackerLA]

If the trend is your friend don't look for much development. Both the EURO and GFS were forecasting major hurricanes and now we have nothing but washed out vorticity. Steering pattern is irrelevant when you don't have a storm to steer.

[gatorcane]

I am shocked the Euro is not blowing it up in the Bahamas.

[Blown Away]

12z GFDL... Modest TS intensifying moving WNW...

[gatorcane]

Enters the SE Gulf at 216 hours but still weak, long-range. So the GFS and Euro are both in good agreement and for the time being, both models don't blow this thing up but certainly a bit discomforting looking at those models for those of us in the Bahamas and Southern Florida trackwise

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL982015  08/24/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    40    45    50    55    59    64    68    69    71    71    69    70    71
V (KT) LAND       40    45    50    55    59    64    68    69    71    71    69    70    71
V (KT) LGE mod    40    45    50    54    59    67    74    79    81    83    83    84    85
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     6     8    10    10     9    15    16    15    18    17    20    18
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     3     0    -6    -5     0    -1     0    -1    -1    -1    -2    -4
SHEAR DIR         22   359   354   352     3   309   314   301   300   284   299   295   323
SST (C)         27.3  27.4  27.5  27.4  27.4  27.9  28.2  28.4  28.5  28.6  28.8  29.0  29.5
POT. INT. (KT)   131   131   133   131   131   137   141   144   145   146   149   151   159
ADJ. POT. INT.   133   132   133   130   130   136   139   140   140   140   138   137   143
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C)       8     9     9     9    10    11    12    12    12    12    12    11    12
700-500 MB RH     60    61    62    61    60    60    58    58    57    59    59    61    58
MODEL VTX (KT)    15    15    16    16    14    13    12    11    10     8     6     6     6
850 MB ENV VOR    71    68    64    52    33     2   -12   -23   -30   -35   -38   -62   -86
200 MB DIV        25    12    11    12    18     1     9   -12     1     0     5    16    -2
700-850 TADV     -13   -10    -7    -9   -17    -4    -8    -9    -9    -5    -4    -6     0
LAND (KM)       1328  1233  1162  1109  1080   860   716   532   224    55   167   241   388
LAT (DEG N)     14.5 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     45.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    18    17    16    16    16    15    14    13    13    12    10     8     8
HEAT CONTENT      17    28    20    13    16    28    48    39    49    65    68    62    56

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20      CX,CY: -19/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  472  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  64.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   2.   3.   6.   9.  13.  16.  18.  20.  21.  21.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   3.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -9. -11. -11. -11.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.   7.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.  10.  15.  19.  24.  28.  29.  31.  31.  29.  30.  31.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST     08/24/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.7 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  16.0 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.4 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  91.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  18.8 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  15.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  55.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    24% is   2.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    13% is   1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     7% is   1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     6% is   2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982015 INVEST     08/24/15  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST     08/24/2015  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

[Blown Away]

18z...

Tightly clustered...

Most showing intensifying hurricane late in forecast...

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF-P has what looks like a major hurricane heading WNW into the SE Bahamas with a ridge to the north

[gatorcane]

HWRF zoomed in shows 957MB nearing the SE Bahamas:

[chaser1]

I think we're looking at a depression at this point. Granted, there is no actual ship/bouy data to support my assertion, but i'd pretty much bet that 98L now has a weak circulation that is fully on the surface and co-located convection would imply to me that it is already a depression. I'm guessing that NHC could upgrade at 5:00pm, unless choosing to see if convection is persistent and wait for improved banding. Either way, i'd guess the trigger will be pulled sometime today/tonight.

(oops, sorry Mod's... just realized I posted this in the model's page. I"ll re-post in the discussion page)

[stormlover2013]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html




here is tropical e wall euro run

[gatorcane]

Looks to gain a little strength in the Eastern Gulf once it crosses Southern Florida but this is 10 days out. I think we need to see if models trend up on intensity while it is in the Atlantic.

[Blown Away]

12z CMC:

12z Nogaps:


Both 12z CMC & Nogaps blow up 98L in the Bahamas and recurve... Much farther west than previous runs...

[stormlover2013]

CMC is the Oakland Raiders of the NFL

[Blown Away]

TAFB has 98L over the NE Caribbean as "Possible Tropical Cyclone" in 72 hours and moving WNW just north of Hispaniola after that... That's a make me nervous spot...

[ronjon]

Well given that are two best global models GFS and ECM (which both forecast Danny's demise in the caribbean) don't really develop 98L I can't get too concerned over this system now. They must be latching onto the hostile conditions in this El Nino year. Things can change but for now I'm leaning toward weak development for 98L.

[northjaxpro]

Still have to remember these models can still change of course. But, it is becoming more apparent as of right now that this tropical entity's prospects of bringing potential effects to the Bahamas and South Florida are increasing as we are within a week now.

[Blown Away]

Well given that are two best global models GFS and ECM (which both forecast Danny's demise in the caribbean) don't really develop 98L I can't get too concerned over this system now. They must be latching onto the hostile conditions in this El Nino year. Things can change but for now I'm leaning toward weak development for 98L.

Euro was weak until the EGOM... GFS took a trip over all the big islands then showed life in the EGOM... Nearly all the other "unreliable" models are showing strong system after @65W... Has much more support than Danny longterm...

[floridasun78]

what i see here on Models that danny clean up parh for next system and stating look like gpoing pass near leedward island got freel going ne of them go toward bahamas ny friend on islands and bahamas and south fl need keep on this 98l soon to be Erika personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

18z...
Tightly clustered...

Most showing intensifying hurricane late in forecast...

A lot of these models are bending slightly more WNW at the end...

[USTropics]

The track is definitely concerning. The models also initially underdid the intensity for Danny. I believe the HWRF was the only model that showed Danny becoming a significant storm for days. Below is an image of some of the respective models (including the NHC forecast) and their performance with intensity error regarding Danny.