WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

#401 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:11 pm

there is one other solution

This stays very weak and never even interacts with the trough, just keeps heading westward. Unlikely, but something to watch for

#402 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:16 pm

Alyono wrote:there is one other solution

This stays very weak and never even interacts with the trough, just keeps heading westward. Unlikely, but something to watch for

Only model that has showed this was the JMA but even that's backed off that and shifted towards more in line with the GFS/ECMWF.

#403 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:19 pm

New rogue burst near the MLC/LLC to the east now.

But this is from 3 hours ago:

Convection seems to finally be catching that spinning feature. Shear looks to be relaxing.

#404 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:20 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:there is one other solution

This stays very weak and never even interacts with the trough, just keeps heading westward. Unlikely, but something to watch for

Only model that has showed this was the JMA but even that's backed off that and shifted towards more in line with the GFS/ECMWF.

several ensemble members are showing it. In the process of calculating some objective probs now

#405 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:23 pm

While organization is improving, the question is it mixing down tho the surface?

#406 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:29 pm

GFDL FINALLY shifts away from Kauai. Now it does not make it east of 162W

#407 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:35 pm

given the developing consensus, perhaps we can chuck the 12Z ECMWF entirely due to its inconsistency

#408 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:36 pm

Alyono wrote:GFDL FINALLY shifts away from Kauai. Now it does not make it east of 162W

Great news. Hopefully the HWRF follows suit.

#409 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:37 pm

Alyono wrote:given the developing consensus, perhaps we can chuck the 12Z ECMWF entirely due to its inconsistency

I'm more than willing to bet that the 00z Euro will shift west as well.

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#410 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:38 pm

18z GFDL isn't much further west.

#411 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:40 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
18z GFDL isn't much further west.

Important to note that on Thursday it also showed Kilo missing Kauai.

#412 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:42 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
18z GFDL isn't much further west.

Important to note that on Thursday it also showed Kilo missing Kauai.

GFDL/HWRF runs seem to shift west whenever the GFS does to some extent with this storm and visa versa.

#413 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:43 pm

#414 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:46 pm

GFS ensembles however are shifting south.

#415 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:48 pm

HWRF is slightly closer to Kauai this run

I need a cigarette...

#416 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:59 pm

Alyono wrote:HWRF is slightly closer to Kauai this run

I need a cigarette...

lol Alyono. I am scheduled to depart Honolulu Tuesday night on the redeye nonstop to IAH.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #417 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:05 pm

The models showing a westward turn make little sense to me in light of the large trough off the West United States. The door is literally wide open for a northeast track very close or just west of Kauai, especially if Kilo becomes a major hurricane as I expect it to.

#418 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:09 pm

18z HWRF a little east, but further west than the GFDL still.

#419 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:21 pm

new GFDL does not reach 162W

#420 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:27 pm

Big burst.

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