ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

The El Niño tells Danny he's in control of the Caribbean

http://youtu.be/IvmeUStFvz8

? But it's not in the Caribbean.

He is on the gates to the Caribbean:)

[La Breeze]

The Fat Lady is singing at various venues all along the coast of the GOM -

[Steve H.]

This is what was anticipated. Come on folks. The only thing that wasn't is that it will stay north of the greater Antilles. I still believe that Danny will strengthen once in the SE Bahamas. Trough will be lifting out before he enters.

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[NCSTORMMAN]

This storm will be a vorticy and nothing more tomorrow. Just spinning in the ocean and probably nothing Monday morning.

[Florida1118]

This storm will be a vorticy and nothing more tomorrow. Just spinning in the ocean and probably nothing Monday morning.

That's a pretty bold call there. It's going to be sheared yes, but what makes you say it's going to become nothing so suddenly?

[tailgater]

We will likely see some pulsing up and down(mostly down) as the tops get blown off then refire over the center and get blown off again

[NCSTORMMAN]

This storm will be a vorticy and nothing more tomorrow. Just spinning in the ocean and probably nothing Monday morning.

That's a pretty bold call there. It's going to be sheared yes, but what makes you say it's going to become nothing so suddenly?

Math. Category 3 yesterday....tropical storm today....just a spin tomorrow....dead Monday.

[Nimbus]

Danny is outrunning the convection as forecast at least till the next puff.
Some major storms went through similar down cycles north of the islands notably Andrew `92 and Katrina.

Danny has been fighting dry air ingestion since yesterday when the crescent inflow clouds were noted.

I would prefer to see a naked swirl out there for a few days before calling Bones.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny is outrunning the convection as forecast at least till the next puff.
Some major storms went through similar down cycles north of the islands notably Andrew `92 and Katrina.

Danny has been fighting dry air ingestion since yesterday when the crescent inflow clouds were noted.

I would prefer to see a naked swirl out there for a few days before calling Bones.

You make valid points of course Nimbus you are one of the smartest ones on here. I still stick with my prediction though. My gut feeling with this one went away when he started being torn apart and hasn't been through the worst yet.

[northjaxpro]

Danny is outrunning the convection as forecast at least till the next puff.
Some major storms went through similar down cycles north of the islands notably Andrew `92 and Katrina.

Danny has been fighting dry air ingestion since yesterday when the crescent inflow clouds were noted.

I would prefer to see a naked swirl out there for a few days before calling Bones.

Ahh, do I see a reference to Bones already? LOL... Don't give wxman57 any ideas yet. Danny still has a pulse for the time being.....

[Hammy]

This storm will be a vorticy and nothing more tomorrow. Just spinning in the ocean and probably nothing Monday morning.

That's a pretty bold call there. It's going to be sheared yes, but what makes you say it's going to become nothing so suddenly?

Math. Category 3 yesterday....tropical storm today....just a spin tomorrow....dead Monday.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8sht/wg8shtjava.html
Danny has been remaining just outside the 30kt shear line for about the last 12 hours, and now it seems to be moving west about the same speed so shear may not increase much more if at all for the next day or two. There is also a thin area of moisture there that is also moving about the same speed, keeping the driest air to the northwest.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flash-wv-long.html
It may make it to the islands as a TS, and the shear wall itself seems to be thinning and weakening slightly for the time being. Interestingly the shear in the Bahamas seems to be increasing which will likely be the nail in the coffin by the time it reaches there.

[Weatherlover12]

This storm will be a vorticy and nothing more tomorrow. Just spinning in the ocean and probably nothing Monday morning.

How do you know? Are you a pro met with a crystal ball for the future ?
We need to wait and see.

[NCSTORMMAN]

This storm will be a vorticy and nothing more tomorrow. Just spinning in the ocean and probably nothing Monday morning.

How do you know? Are you a pro met with a crystal ball for the future ?
We need to wait and see.

Nope I just have an opinion and express it like you do. No need to beat me down most of us on here are not pro mets and it is how I feel. You can feel differently and I applaud it because that is what democracy looks like sir.

[wxman57]

A final shot of Danny before darkness overtakes it. Center completely exposed (red crosshairs). Only a couple of squalls remaining. If this shear keeps up like it is now, then Danny will not be a TS when it reaches the Caribbean. Maybe not even a TD. Rainfall chances may be dropping for the islands.

[Florida1118]

This storm will be a vorticy and nothing more tomorrow. Just spinning in the ocean and probably nothing Monday morning.

How do you know? Are you a pro met with a crystal ball for the future ?
We need to wait and see.

Nope I just have an opinion and express it like you do. No need to beat me down most of us on here are not pro mets and it is how I feel. You can feel differently and I applaud it because that is what democracy looks like sir.

It's not really beating you down...just curious as to your scientific thinking why this will poof by tomorrow. We all have opinions, sure, but it's always good to back it up with some science

[fci]

This storm will be a vorticy and nothing more tomorrow. Just spinning in the ocean and probably nothing Monday morning.

How do you know? Are you a pro met with a crystal ball for the future ?
We need to wait and see.

Nope I just have an opinion and express it like you do. No need to beat me down most of us on here are not pro mets and it is how I feel. You can feel differently and I applaud it because that is what democracy looks like sir.

Amen.
We all like to predict what will happen, some on gut feeling, others with some science and many based on experience and climatology.
History tells me that once this happens it is the death knell for the system.
Oh, there are of course exceptions like Andrew, Jeanne, etc...
You don't need to remind us.

[TheStormExpert]

Probably won't be anything left of Danny by the time it is in the Bahamas, but anything in the Bahamas this time of year NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY! We've seen too many weaklings suddenly blowup in that region in the past and just cause it's an El Niño season is no exception IMO.

[ninel conde]

A final shot of Danny before darkness overtakes it. Center completely exposed (red crosshairs). Only a couple of squalls remaining. If this shear keeps up like it is now, then Danny will not be a TS when it reaches the Caribbean. Maybe not even a TD. Rainfall chances may be dropping for the islands.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dannyvis.JPG

Id be shocked if they get any rain. also shocked it formed at all.

[ozonepete]

This storm will be a vorticy and nothing more tomorrow. Just spinning in the ocean and probably nothing Monday morning.

Wow you got a lot of flak there buddy. Not surprised. But I'm sure you knew it was coming since you didn't give any reasons at all why you think that.

I would just add that after many years of watching these, this is a very common scenario: a strong TC meets shear and/or dry air and gets shredded pretty badly into a disorganized mess. Then they move along as a low level swirl of clouds (the "naked swirl") and everybody calls it dead. But then, as any of the vets and mets on here can tell you, in many cases they again encounter good conditions and burst up even stronger than they were before. There is a distinct possibility that could happen here, so don't write it off so fast my friend.

[NCSTORMMAN]

This storm will be a vorticy and nothing more tomorrow. Just spinning in the ocean and probably nothing Monday morning.

Wow you got a lot of flak there buddy. Not surprised. But I'm sure you knew it was coming since you didn't give any reasons at all why you think that.

I would just add that after many years of watching these, this is a very common scenario: a strong TC meets shear and/or dry air and gets shredded pretty badly into a disorganized mess. Then they move along as a low level swirl of clouds (the "naked swirl") and everybody calls it dead. But then, as any of the vets and mets on here can tell you, in many cases they again encounter good conditions and burst up even stronger than they were before. There is a distinct possibility that could happen here, so don't write it off so fast my friend.

Of course that is a possibility but this storm is done in my opinion and I'll stick with that. I do respect your opinion and the opinions of many others on here though. I as a programmer like statistics and numbers. Logical processes and all of that stuff so I like to weigh the options. The most likely outcome is that he dies off in the next 48 hours.