WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

#361 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:58 am

6z GFDL and HWRF a little more east.

#362 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 11:06 am

looks to be organizing a little

new MU is southeast of the previous so far

#363 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 11:08 am

Alyono wrote:looks to be organizing a little

I agree Alyono. First visible imagery and RECON which is en route will be valuable today.

Edit to add: PW's has increased dramatically this morning (above 2+ inches) and forecast is calling for over a foot of rain over the higher terrain of Ko'oluu Mountains of Oahu with a possible 3-5 inches here in Waikiki/Honolulu.

#364 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 11:13 am

I personally wouldn't have lowered the winds with the satellite trends and recon approaching. I even went super conservative at 3Z and kept it as a TS yesterday even after the cphc downgrade, waiting for data

#365 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 11:16 am

Seems to be some sort of curved band developing.

#366 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 11:26 am

12Z MU remains at 164W. A safe miss. More ridging this run

#367 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:09 pm

Looks like Kilo gain a little latitude overnight?

#368 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:10 pm

Alyono wrote:looks to be organizing a little

new MU is southeast of the previous so far

Maybe the mid-level shear is relaxing?

#369 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:19 pm

the recon data is unimpressive, however so far

#370 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:34 pm

nope... storms organization has deteriorated according to the aircraft data. More of a mere broad low right now

#371 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:52 pm

I won't be surprised if the CPHC pulls the plug.

#372 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:29 pm

EC now going toward Hawaii

#373 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:36 pm

ECMWf 0z back towards Kaui and shows a much weaker ridge than GFS.

#374 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:38 pm

12Z maybe 80 miles west of Kauai

#375 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:40 pm

12z GFS ensembles shifting west.

#376 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:40 pm

So the shift back to the east continues for the Euro.

The next 00z runs for the models should all be improved after that synoptic mission is completed.

#377 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:50 pm

CP, 03, 2015082218, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1588W, 25, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 100, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, KILO, M,

#378 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:58 pm

12z GFDL calls for Kilo to become a Category 5.

#379 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:03 pm

Wow that would be historic... GFDL has a history of overdoing things...

#380 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:04 pm

Yeah I've been looking at the HWRF and GFDL. I think they need to be thrown out as well. Kilo is barely classifiable.

WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

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