ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

[NDG]

I was just looking at the GFS and Euro, big differences between the two on the UL trough that is forecasted to come down the eastern US, the Euro by day 6 has it's axis over the MS river valley while the GFS has is it all the way east and south over FL.
If the Euro is right there will be an UL ridge over the Bahamas by then creating some fairly good UL conditions for whatever Danny is by then to take advantage of.

[ronjon]

Actually looks like the high shear zone has migrated to the north of the cyclone and helping ventilate it now. Convection is expanding now to the west, it's becoming more symmetrical, and shear out to its immediate west is low according to satellite depicted high level wind barbs. Will the eye reappear today?

[northjaxpro]

Water Vapor imagery of the Western North Atlantic basin this morning. The biggest features are Danny of course and the large trough across the Western Atlantic, which has kept 97L totally in check from not developing.

[tailgater]

My first thought this morning is that Danny is currently dealing with the shear but losing the fight with dry air.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't bury Danny so quickly. If he can survive the next 60 hours, I think he will be a threat to the Gom or the SE US.

You might want to take a look at the shear forecast for the GoM and Florida before declaring a threat to the Gulf. By late next week, a deepening trof across the Gulf will produce tremendous shear in Danny's path. Danny should pass the NE Caribbean as a TS then slowly dissipate. It's only chance at an extended life is if it takes a sharp right turn and heads out to sea.

[NDG]

I wouldn't bury Danny so quickly. If he can survive the next 60 hours, I think he will be a threat to the Gom or the SE US.

You might want to take a look at the shear forecast for the GoM and Florida before declaring a threat to the Gulf. By late next week, a deepening trof across the Gulf will produce tremendous shear in Danny's path. Danny should pass the NE Caribbean as a TS then slowly dissipate. It's only chance at an extended life is if it takes a sharp right turn and heads out to sea.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_26.png

The Euro paints a much prettier picture over the Bahamas by day six.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah that is quite a difference with EURO and GFS within the next week. EURO is showing a ridge in the vicinity of the Bahamas and east of there in that graphic above which you posted NDG. GFS is much more drastic showing a trough all the way across the GOM into Florida the same time period.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-52&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[Nederlander]

I wouldn't bury Danny so quickly. If he can survive the next 60 hours, I think he will be a threat to the Gom or the SE US.

You might want to take a look at the shear forecast for the GoM and Florida before declaring a threat to the Gulf. By late next week, a deepening trof across the Gulf will produce tremendous shear in Danny's path. Danny should pass the NE Caribbean as a TS then slowly dissipate. It's only chance at an extended life is if it takes a sharp right turn and heads out to sea.

Agreed if that were to verify. Of course the GFS could also be overdoing the troughing, but it will still play a major role in steering as the trough will erode the Atlantic ridge. Either way, it looks like the gulf has a couple of trap doors ready for Danny.

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[OURAGAN]

Initial 15,2 N / 50,8 W, NOW 15.3N/ 51,4 W, the turn to the west has begun

[Weatherboy1]

Wasn't the base of that trough forecast by GFS yesterday to before her south and east? Or am I mistaken? I agree this system or what's left of it would have a hard time on the Gulf either way. But I'm more concerned (for now) with what happens further east. IF Danny survives the shear further by the Leewards, it would seem to have a more favorable environment for re strengthening in the area north of Hispanola or in the SW Bahmas if the trough bases further west right?

Just an amateur btw - listen to the experts as always

[Blown Away]

Initial 15,2 N / 50,8 W, NOW 15.3N/ 51,4 W, the turn to the west has begun

I think so and the forward speed should increase.

[northjaxpro]

Well, Weatherboy1, if the EURO is close to being right in 144 hours and if there is any vorticity still lingering from Danny north of the Islands, conditions in 6 days or so could become much more favorable for development to happen. But, that is if Danny is still a classified system by then. Big IF about that right now.

EURO is showing a nice ridge north of the Greater Antilles in 144 hours, and that would lead to an environment conducive for development if the EURO is correct in its latest run.

[Gustywind]

Slight decreasing of Hurricane Danny


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/1145 UTC 15.4N 51.4W T3.5/4.5 DANNY
22/0545 UTC 15.1N 50.0W T4.0/4.5 DANNY
21/2345 UTC 14.9N 49.3W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.4W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.8W T5.0/5.0 DANNY
21/0545 UTC 13.5N 46.9W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/2345 UTC 13.2N 46.0W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/1745 UTC 12.7N 45.3W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
20/1145 UTC 12.4N 44.2W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
20/0545 UTC 12.0N 43.1W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
19/2345 UTC 11.9N 42.3W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY

[Nederlander]

:uarrow: Well, Weatherboy1, if the EURO is close to being right in 144 hours and if there is any vorticity still lingering from Danny north of the Islands, conditions in 6 days or so could become much more favorable for development to happen.

EURO is showing a nice ridge north of the Greater Antilles in 144 hours, and that would lead to an environment conducive for development if the EURO is correct in its latest run.

How is the timing with the EURO though? Wouldnt Danny face a recurve scenario if the EURO verifies? Still trying to learn all the steering mechanisms at play...

[Gustywind]

Initial 15,2 N / 50,8 W, NOW 15.3N/ 51,4 W, the turn to the west has begun

I think so and the forward speed should increase.

Let's wait a bit and see if this tendency continues.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

:uarrow: Yeah that is quite a difference with EURO and GFS within the next week. EURO is showing a ridge in the vicinity of the Bahamas and east of there in that graphic above which you posted NDG. GFS is much more drastic showing a trough all the way across the GOM into Florida the same time period.

Leaning towards gfs for late next week. Think the euro will come around in a few days. Going to be a lot going on (energy wise) due to the wpac typhoons becoming absorbed into the northerly stream flow. Going to be a very unstable pattern shaping up

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Well, Weatherboy1, if the EURO is close to being right in 144 hours and if there is any vorticity still lingering from Danny north of the Islands, conditions in 6 days or so could become much more favorable for development to happen.

EURO is showing a nice ridge north of the Greater Antilles in 144 hours, and that would lead to an environment conducive for development if the EURO is correct in its latest run.

How is the timing with the EURO though? Wouldnt Danny face a recurve scenario if the EURO verifies? Still trying to learn all the steering mechanisms at play...

Well, there is a trough coming downstream across the CON US which the EURO depicts diving down a bit farther west into the Lower MS River Valley region late week. EURO in its latest run does not deepen the trough as drastically as GFS does, which shows that same trough deepening all the way down into the Florida peninsula in 6 days. If you believe the GFS, if there is any thing left of Danny by this time next week, it would get destroyed by the strong shear and get picked up out to sea as well between 70 -75 Longitude.

However, if you hug the EURO, it is showing a ridge in place that if any semblance of Danny is around and avoids interaction with Hispaniola especially, this is a much better potential scenario for possible re-generation. The environment would be much more conducive potentially for development and also if the ridge is in place, whatever left of Danny would move a bit farther westward.

So, remember, all of this discussion could be a moot point as Danny could be just an disintegrated open wave in six days time. But, this is a discussion forum and it is why we are all here to do just that.

[tolakram]

Leaning towards gfs for late next week. Think the euro will come around in a few days. Going to be a lot going on (energy wise) due to the wpac typhoons becoming absorbed into the northerly stream flow. Going to be a very unstable pattern shaping up

The only problem I have with that is how consistently wrong the GFS has been with large scale patterns in the longer range. The euro is not always accurate but not completely opposite reality as the GFS has been. I've been entertained on Weatherbell by JB showing GFS maps run to run and just how horribly inconsistent it is.

We shall see.