Siker wrote:Ozonepete or anyone else, I have a question about the shear. Looking at the 00z GFS's shear forecast maps on Tropical Tidbits (and those from previous runs) the heaviest band of shear begins to match Danny in pace, constantly impinging on his front side out through 78 hours. Is this how these upper atmospheric interactions typically work? Danny's meager anticyclone pushes upper level troughing along with it, creating a perpetually unfavorable environment? Or is that shear moving as the result of some other factor?
I think the easiest way to explain it is this. A large and well developed hurricane might typically have its own anticyclone (upper high) parked smack overhead; all the while massive amounts of air is rising up and into its core and that air is constantly being evacuated up and out the top of that "storms chiminy". Under ideal conditions that outflow might be screaming out in all directions, even at speeds over 30 mph. Here, the hurricane is using the atmosphere to ventilate itself (which ultimatly aids the ongoing convergence of surface inflow). Upper level shear is not difluent however. Sure, on one hand it does kinda ventilate air rising out of the eye, but upper level shear kind of puts out the fire.... rather than simply helping to fan the fire. If you've ever watched Survivor when someone is trying to make fire, you might notice how they gently blow to cause the delicate little ember to catch fire. Now imagine the outcome if they were to blow as humanly strong as possible, LOL. That little ember would be immediately extinguished. Upper level shear will tend to cause that same result to occur to hurricane; instead of being difluent air aiding a storms outflow, the shear is acting more or less "convergent" and acting to extinguish the storms whole outflow mechanism.
Not sure if that answered your question. .. more importantly though, hopefully I didn't confuse you evrn further lol