WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Kilo is barely a tropical cyclone. Recon found 10 knot westerly winds and 35 FL 30 knt SFMR far from the center. I guess we can call this is a TC, but this is worse than 11E.

[Kingarabian]

Kiko is barely a tropical cyclone. Recon found 10 knot westerly winds and 35 FL 30 knt SFMR far from the center. I guess we can call this is a TC, but this is worse than 11E.

GFS keep this weak until 96 hours in. Further west of Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

The longer it takes to consolidate and get going, the better for Hawaii.

[Alyono]

the threat may soon be over if the latest trends continue. The mid level shear is simply not abating, which is keeping this weak

[Yellow Evan]

GFS starts a turn at around day 5.

[Kingarabian]

GFS starts a turn at around day 5.

Stalls it for 36 hours.

Troughing isn't the question for the GFS at all compared to the Euro. Just storm strength.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's very premature to say that the threat may soon be over when Kilo was forecast to struggle initially. Mid-level winds should abate over the next 24-36 hours as the cyclone moves west-northwest. Thereafter, a combination of light shear, warm ocean temperatures, and adequate mid-level moisture should favor steady to quick intensification. I think the HWRF has the future evolution of Kilo nailed, showing the cyclone broad and disorganized through 36 hours but substantial intensification thereafter. Residents in the westernmost Hawaiian Islands should be closely monitoring the system.

[Yellow Evan]

Here's a look at the mid-level shear.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS ridge builds back and sends it west.

[Yellow Evan]

00z GFS ridge builds back and sends it west.

Don't understand why.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS ridge builds back and sends it west.

Don't understand why.

I know right? It's wide open and strong enough.

[srainhoutx]

Once Kilo gets above 15N it appears shear relaxes and I would not be surprised to see convection develop around the eastern semicircle. Frankly I thought is was a little atypically bullish for the CPHC to upgrade this mess this morning when we could see the low level circulation center was exposed to the E of the deep convection. Let's see what the night and tomorrow bring before raising the 'all clear' flag for Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

18z HWRF

Also, if the storm goes west, this will be very fun to track.

[Alyono]

GFDL and HWRF appear to be moving ENE at the end, but should be far enough west to allow the ridge to build back in

[cane2cane]

Thanks for posting these all the time. One question that has bugged me about all these charts: Why do the pressures for the systems not appear to line up with the wind speed estimates? For example, the HWRF chart shows Kilo with a MSLP of 943...yet the maximum wind speed is listed at only 77 knots. I thought a min pressure reading of 943 equals a category 4 hurricane at least. What am i missing?

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow:

Thanks for posting these all the time. One question that has bugged me about all these charts: Why do the pressures for the systems not appear to line up with the wind speed estimates? For example, the HWRF chart shows Kilo with a MSLP of 943...yet the maximum wind speed is listed at only 77 knots. I thought a min pressure reading of 943 equals a category 4 hurricane at least. What am i missing?

Models wind speeds just plain don't match up with the winds. They don't have the ability to do so.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF quite interesting. 992mbar by Day 5, stronger than last run.

[Alyono]

ECMWF MUCH stronger and closer to Hawaii

[Alyono]

EC still is a miss, but was a NE shift

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF through 6 days. Seems to have this moving NW due to a trough to the NW that is ex-Atsani.