ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well I still think it will ultimately get torn apart over the next few days with the best models we have in the world showing that solution. But I find it interesting that the high shear zone seems to be shrinking some out ahead of it (second graphic), plus look at that huge upper high that has formed just east of Florida (first graphic) with favorable upper-level winds north of the Greater Antilles.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Agree, strong cold front expected to drop down into ths gulf midweek. Our more interesting weather late next week will be come from the typhoons in the wpac becoming xtratropical and absorbed in the northerly stream. Lots of energy will be stored up ready to be dispersed across the country. Reminds me of last year when much of the US had early record low temps and winter in November. Basically gulf will be shut down for business


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

Danny is starting to run into the shear wall now, if you watch the satellite you can see the high clouds to the west basically stop and almost start collapsing backwards towards the storm.

[tailgater]

Cat 2 or F2 The smallest storm I can remember!

[ConvergenceZone]

wxman57 writing it off what i under stand

You have to remember that's just one opinion among the many pro mets on here. Wxman and I go way back on here and I love and respect him (he's a maestro) but we don't always agree - that's just the nature of hurricane forecasting. But I'm sure even he would tell you that he's not right 100% of the time; at least I think he would.

So you should look for a consensus of the experts on here rather than follow just one person.

I love wxman, he's awesome and much loved here, but it's funny that whenever I see a post by him I know it's about a system that's not going to survive or is going to go out to sea( ) ....Again, I love your posts WXMAN, so please keep posting as it's always good to have both sides of the coin.

I guess it's like the stock market, you have those forecasters who are always more bullish and those who are always more bearish........

With that said, I do agree with him about Danny though. I just don't see how a storm this small is going to hold on much longer.

[NDG]

The TUTT has not really moved the last couple of days, but it appears to be weakening a little or least thining out some today.

Haha I still think that's a poor excuse for a TUTT but I guess you can call it whatever you want...

All I'm sayin' is that the NHC is not calling it a TUTT

I will keep saying it is a TUTT, because it is a TUTT at everything I keep looking at

Current 200mb heights:

[AutoPenalti]

[BobHarlem]

It's back down to cat 2, the NHC's track has been spot on so far, just intensity was a bit off. Based on it it'll gradually weaken and then weaken much more on Sunday. That forecast track looks good also.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220237
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...DANNY WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...CONTINUED WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 49.8W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands should
monitor the progress of Danny. Tropical storm watches may be
required for portions of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin
Islands on Saturday.

[blp]

Danny is starting to run into the shear wall now, if you watch the satellite you can see the high clouds to the west basically stop and almost start collapsing backwards towards the storm.

Yes I am seeing it now too. You can see the outer bands getting pulled away and you can see the NE side of the CDO is now flat. Won't be long now before the CDO gets disrupted.

[cjrciadt]

We need an Electron microscope if it gets any smaller!

[TheAustinMan]

Getting quite close to an area with lots of shear as depicted by the retrograde moving outflow bands just west of Danny.

[SouthFLTropics]

looks like Danny is about to get a haircut...just a little off the top please.

[Hurricaneman]

I think the keys to survival are

1. The shear zone shrinks some as there would be either less shear or a thinner shear zone

2. keeps convective bursts going until it finds better conditions as it keeps the circulation going until then

3. Avoids the big islands as the big islands would destroy the circulation

So far it looks like options 2 and 3 might happen and maybe option 1 but thats why we watch just in case of a situation that could turn into something ugly{as in a strong hurricane not a withered husk}

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Steve H.]

I wouldn't bury Danny so quickly. If he can survive the next 60 hours, I think he will be a threat to the Gom or the SE US.

[jasons2k]

It's such a small system I can't see how it will survive the shear and dry air. Even a larger hurricane would be running into a shredder. I think it's quick demise is going to surprise some people.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

To tell the truth though. It seems very likely it will be sheared to a TD by the time it reaches the SE Bahamas area. There it may re-itensify but that all depends on the track it takes. Furthermore, it needs to stay alive and not die out completely. We will see and keep track on it.



Synopsis for Danny and other systems: http://goo.gl/mxW9nB

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

This is the 5 day loop showing Danny brushing up against TUTT shear wall but it does seem to thinning and backing up almost as fast as Danny advances. Danny is forecast to speed up so that might change soon but I wouldn't write off the possibility of Danny remaining a Hurricane when it reaches the Leeward isles.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... tjava.html

The TUTT has not really moved the last couple of days, but it appears to be weakening a little or least thining out some today.

Ok let's leave alone the argument about if there's a true TUTT there for now. But would you guys please explain to all of our members that TUTTs and wind shear are not the same thing? A TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough), is a thin layer of upper level winds from 300 to 200 mb or so, and affects outflow above a tropical cyclone, either helping or hindering its development. Shear is the change in speed or direction of the wind from lower up to higher levels. When it's too strong it causes the thunderstorms in a tropical cyclone to tilt so that they weaken and get sheared off at upper levels. They are two very different things and I don't want readers here to think they are the same thing.

[Siker]

Ozonepete or anyone else, I have a question about the shear. Looking at the 00z GFS's shear forecast maps on Tropical Tidbits (and those from previous runs) the heaviest band of shear begins to match Danny in pace, constantly impinging on his front side out through 78 hours. Is this how these upper atmospheric interactions typically work? Danny's meager anticyclone pushes upper level troughing along with it, creating a perpetually unfavorable environment? Or is that shear moving as the result of some other factor?

[bahamaswx]

If he gets sheared to pieces and reforms, he may not reform as such as tiny storm anymore.

[stormlover2013]

Slowly slowly starting to look bad for Danny!!! Looks euro and gfs going to get this right