ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Brent]

Dang! I keep trying to get into chat and cannot! I can see it but for some reason I am not able to post anything in chat. I am not sure why. Cannot do it on main computer or my Kindle.

Sorry about that the room was moderated due to a chat troll. Try it now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Convection seems to be firing on the NW side, time will tell if it wraps around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Also approaching 015° N.

[tolakram]

Live IR loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-50&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[NCSTORMMAN]

Maybe I spoke too soon. He is weakening looks like the shear is going to win no doubt.

[ozonepete]

Maybe I spoke too soon. He is weakening looks like the shear is going to win no doubt.

Dude, slow down. You need to look at longer trends, like 6 hours or more. 1 or 2 hours of change are not long enough to reveal much of anything and are often very deceptive and lead you to the wrong conclusion.

[Nederlander]

Maybe I spoke too soon. He is weakening looks like the shear is going to win no doubt.

Lol this has been happening ever since Danny was an invest. He's popping! No he's dying! This will be a monster! Call in Bones! It is forecast to weaken, we know that, but let's wait to see how he responds to the hostile environment he is entering before declaring him dead or alive. For the time being, he is still a very strong hurricane.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Maybe I spoke too soon. He is weakening looks like the shear is going to win no doubt.

Dude, slow down. You need to look at longer trends, like 6 hours or more. 1 or 2 hours of change are not long enough to reveal much of anything and are often very deceptive and lead you to the wrong conclusion.

Well that last frame shows most of the convection dying and most of the mets on twitter and facebook are saying this thing is starting to weaken. So, not really a slow down or chill needed just a keep my mouth shut more like it lol. I still think the models and NHC will be wrong on intensity and path. I said the same thing when this was first declared as a storm and they predicted 100 MPH and I said it was going to go over that. I just think the models are initializing it wrong and the shear is strong no doubt but also thin. At least according to this map.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Maybe I spoke too soon. He is weakening looks like the shear is going to win no doubt.

Lol this has been happening ever since Danny was an invest. He's popping! No he's dying! This will be a monster! Call in Bones! It is forecast to weaken, we know that, but let's wait to see how he responds to the hostile environment he is entering before declaring him dead or alive. For the time being, he is still a very strong hurricane.

This storm has been pretty hard to predict even for the NHC who has pretty much changed every forecast point. Of course I should of waited a little bit longer before declaring it dead or about to take off. Thing is this storm has been trolling even the best of the METS.

[WPBWeather]

Maybe I spoke too soon. He is weakening looks like the shear is going to win no doubt.

Lol this has been happening ever since Danny was an invest. He's popping! No he's dying! This will be a monster! Call in Bones! It is forecast to weaken, we know that, but let's wait to see how he responds to the hostile environment he is entering before declaring him dead or alive. For the time being, he is still a very strong hurricane.

This storm has been pretty hard to predict even for the NHC who has pretty much changed every forecast point. Of course I should of waited a little bit longer before declaring it dead or about to take off. Thing is this storm has been trolling even the best of the METS.

You're going to get the 1000 post award by Sunday!

[NCSTORMMAN]

lol Very interested in tropics. Researching for a programming project I am going to build. Creating my own model. Tired of following the others lol.

[ROCK]

any chance Danny could make it to the gulf as an intact storm or remnats that could regenerate and be a threat?

It's possible. If you look at the EC ensembles at 850mb the energy sort of splits with some remnant energy looking like it ends up stretched out near the upper tx coast feeding into an onshore flow. GFS at 500 drives a deep and narrow trough in the south. It keeps it there for a while, possibly too long. Then it flattens the pattern and goes to an even deeper trough whose isobars almost connect with the Pacific. Not sure if it's not resolving an upper level low, if it's accurate or if its overdoing a trough in the east too early (particularly since its an El Niño year) or if it senses possible surface low pressure. I was hoping the WPAC would give some hints but there are mixed signals with a recurve (trough in the east a week later) followed by a recurve with a bend back toward Asia which argues somewhat for a building ridge a few days later. But with the CPAC Storm liable to get entrained into the westerlies and get its moisture into the North American pattern sooner, that resulting trough could be Great Lakes centered initially. That says moisture ahead of it and probably more into the se of there if there isn't massive swly flow in front of Danny's remnants to just turn them up and out.

In other words, you are going to have to watch the regional and global patterns evolve over the next few days before knowing if anyone in the U.S. is going to get rain out of the remnants. It should be clear when Danny or its remnant wave are at the big islands around Monday. <--- not much help, but there are a lot of things going on around the globe that could complicate the 7-10 day pattern, and too many for any high percentage guesses this early.

As always Steve...nice write up and I agree.

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Definitely has weakened according to Dvorak

[Nederlander]

I think the overall point is that situations change and when they do, forecasts are adjusted. The shear may very well kill Danny. But he could also pick up some forward speed and push through the area of shear with his core intact enough to rebuild. It's very similar to "wobble-watching" when landfall is eminent. Instead of watching the overall trend of the motion, sometimes people get caught up in little wobbles which often end up stair-stepping anyway. At any rate, like ozonepete said, trends over many hours is what's important.

[AutoPenalti]

lol Very interested in tropics. Researching for a programming project I am going to build. Creating my own model. Tired of following the others lol.

Can I get on board? lol.

[Hammy]

The outflow seems to still be there to the west and what there was of it to the south, so I'm betting on ERC rather than shear at least at the moment being responsible for weakening.

[NDG]

And just as I said last night, Danny is starting to encounter the Great Wall of Shear and becoming less attractive by the hour on satellite presentation.

[ROCK]

I think the overall point is that situations change and when they do, forecasts are adjusted. The shear may very well kill Danny. But he could also pick up some forward speed and push through the area of shear with his core intact enough to rebuild. It's very similar to "wobble-watching" when landfall is eminent. Instead of watching the overall trend of the motion, sometimes people get caught up in little wobbles which often end up stair-stepping anyway. At any rate, like ozonepete said, trends over many hours is what's important.

Agree...if the shear doesnt get him his core will be toast if he goes over DR. The NHC is showing an increase of forward speed on Monday so it very well make it thru. I grew out of wobble watching back in 2004...

[NDG]

The outflow seems to still be there to the west and what there was of it to the south, so I'm betting on ERC rather than shear at least at the moment being responsible for weakening.

Windshear at 21z was analyzed at around 20 knots over Danny and increasing, that is more likely the source of it loosing good satellite presentation.

[SeGaBob]

The first 10 pages of this thread are entertaining to look over again... Anyone can say what they want to about it weakening now, but it's still a overachiever.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Danny going to miss the next forecast point to the north again... About to cross 15N...